Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. AAP
$38.68 -0.15% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $2.33B
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin widened to 3.7% from -8.8% a year earlier.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 7 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +64.8%).
- Net debt is 3.9× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 26%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 31%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 24%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 36%
- Gross marginTop 31%
- Operating marginBottom 35%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 12%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 19%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 35%
- Interest coverBottom 30%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 43%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 25%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 21%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 13%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 38%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 18%
- 6-month returnBottom 15%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 18%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 30%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 16%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 17%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 15%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 46%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 10%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 34%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 31%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 35%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -3.1% | -1.3% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 37.1% | 44.7% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | -8.8% | 3.7% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | -3.4% | 0.3% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -1.3% | -3.1% | ↑ | Bottom 26% |
| Gross margin | 44.7% | 37.1% | ↑ | Top 31% |
| Operating margin | 3.7% | -8.8% | ↑ | Bottom 35% |
| Net margin | 1.0% | -4.4% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.3% | -3.4% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.5% | — | Bottom 36% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -2.0% | — | Bottom 31% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -1.9%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -19.4 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.91×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 2.57%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.13%
- Shareholder yield
- 2.44%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.8%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jul 18, 2026 (filed Aug 20, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 7
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 7 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +64.8%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $51.69
- Target vs current price
- +33.6%
- Analysts with a rating
- 44
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 27%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | +27.6% | -24.5% | -21.6% | -25.3% | — |
| May 21, 2026 | +97.4% | +14.4% | +16.8% | +17.3% | +10.7% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | +109.8% | +1.1% | -4.0% | -11.1% | -11.0% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | +24.3% | -8.0% | -11.7% | -6.6% | -10.5% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | +16.9% | -8.0% | -8.5% | +0.6% | -23.2% |
| May 22, 2025 | +72.8% | +57.0% | +54.5% | +57.8% | +80.8% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | +14.5% | -17.8% | -24.6% | -18.2% | -31.8% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | -120.4% | +0.6% | -5.6% | +7.6% | +16.0% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | $1.03 | $0.81 | +27.6% | $2.00B |
| May 21, 2026 | $0.77 | $0.39 | +97.4% | $2.61B |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $0.86 | $0.41 | +109.8% | $1.97B |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.92 | $0.74 | +24.3% | $2.00B |
| Aug 14, 2025 | $0.69 | $0.59 | +16.9% | $2.01B |
| May 22, 2025 | -$0.22 | -$0.81 | +72.8% | $2.58B |
| Feb 26, 2025 | -$1.18 | -$1.38 | +14.5% | $2.00B |
| Nov 14, 2024 | -$0.10 | $0.49 | -120.4% | $2.15B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 28.2× | 22.8× | 63th | Bottom 43% |
| P/E (forward) | 12.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.3× | — | — | Top 21% |
| EV / Sales | 0.51× | — | — | Top 13% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.99% | — | — | Bottom 25% |
| Earnings yield | 3.55% | — | — | Bottom 43% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 9.7× – 191.3× since Jul 17, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -11.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.6%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -19.0%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -24.9%
- RSI (14)
- 32.1
- Relative volume
- 0.86×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 73.5%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 88th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.81
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.20
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -38.6%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -64.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2021 | Apr 8, 2025 | -87.5% | 851 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 12, 2021 | Jan 27, 2021 | -16.3% | 10 days | 31 days (Mar 12, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.33B
- P/E (TTM)
- 28.2
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.37
- Revenue (TTM)
- $8.62B
- Dividend yield
- 3.23%
- 52-week range
- $37.89 – $65.20
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.00B | $9.15B | $9.21B | $9.09B | $8.60B |
| Gross profit | $4.92B | $4.23B | $3.86B | $3.41B | $3.73B |
| Operating income | $822.4M | $524.6M | $55.0M | -$404.0M | $161.0M |
| Net income | $596.6M | $464.4M | $30.0M | -$336.0M | $44.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.55 | $7.65 | $0.50 | -$5.63 | $0.73 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.15B | $2.00B | $2.58B | $2.01B | $2.04B | $1.97B | $2.61B | $2.00B |
| Net income | -$6.0M | -$414.8M | $24.0M | $15.0M | -$1.0M | $6.0M | $24.0M | $55.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.10 | -$6.94 | $0.40 | $0.25 | -$0.02 | $0.10 | $0.39 | $0.90 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.11B | $736.6M | $287.4M | $84.6M | -$46.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$289.6M | -$400.7M | -$225.7M | -$180.8M | -$252.0M |
| Free cash flow | $817.4M | $335.9M | $61.7M | -$96.2M | -$298.0M |
| Dividends paid | -$160.9M | -$336.2M | -$209.3M | -$59.9M | -$60.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$903.1M | -$618.5M | -$14.5M | -$6.5M | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $3.12B
- Total assets
- $12.02B
- Total liabilities
- $9.76B
- Total debt
- $5.21B
- Net debt
- $2.09B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.26B
As of Jul 18, 2026 (filed Aug 20, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | $0.25 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | $0.25 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | $0.25 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | $0.25 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | $0.25 | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | $0.25 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | $0.25 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | $0.25 | Jan 24, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 10,297,794
- Days to cover
- 6.38
- Change vs previous report
- +5.1%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Sep 26, 2005
- 3-for-2
- Jan 5, 2004
- 2-for-1