Stocks · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Alumis Inc. ALMS
$6.85 -4.99% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $845.5M
Expensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 12, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -6204.4% from -2189.4% a year earlier.
- The diluted share count rose 66.6% in a year.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $7.4M, down 63.1% from a year earlier, slowing from -51.7% a quarter earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Healthcare sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 9%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 16%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 11%
- Gross marginTop 20%
- Operating marginBottom 5%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 21%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 13%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 11%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 11%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 8%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 9%
- 6-month returnBottom 2%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 22%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 4%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 14%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 25%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 20%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 31%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 9%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 2%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 35%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 1%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -51.7% | -63.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 95.9% | 88.2% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -2189.4% | -6204.4% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -1730.4% | -4755.3% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -63.1% | -51.7% | ↓ | Bottom 9% |
| Gross margin | 88.2% | 95.9% | ↓ | Top 20% |
| Operating margin | -6204.4% | -2189.4% | ↓ | Bottom 5% |
| Net margin | -5933.5% | -1134.5% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -4755.3% | -1730.4% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -93.5% | — | Bottom 11% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -15.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 492.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +12.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -42.69%
- Shareholder yield
- -42.69%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +66.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +35.0%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 2 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -14.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $29.57
- Target vs current price
- +331.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 8
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 88%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | -44.7% | -4.5% | -6.1% | -61.3% | — |
| May 14, 2026 | +0.4% | -0.9% | -11.3% | -15.9% | +10.7% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.2% | -2.4% | -1.7% | -5.0% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -15.2% | +0.8% | +25.4% | +121.6% | +407.4% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | -5.4% | -0.9% | +6.1% | -3.6% | +2.5% |
| May 14, 2025 | -23.8% | +1.1% | +9.4% | -26.2% | -3.6% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | -24.3% | -2.5% | -10.7% | +14.1% | -29.0% |
| Nov 13, 2024 | -5.5% | -4.8% | -8.8% | -25.1% | -55.9% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | -$1.11 | -$0.77 | -44.7% | $1.7M |
| May 14, 2026 | -$0.74 | -$0.74 | +0.4% | $1.7M |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -$0.95 | -$0.97 | +2.1% | $1.9M |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -$1.06 | -$0.92 | -15.2% | $2.1M |
| Aug 13, 2025 | -$1.17 | -$1.11 | -5.4% | $2.7M |
| May 14, 2025 | -$1.82 | -$1.47 | -23.8% | $17.4M |
| Mar 19, 2025 | -$1.74 | -$1.40 | -24.3% | — |
| Nov 13, 2024 | -$1.73 | -$1.64 | -5.5% | — |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 110.60× | — | — | Bottom 8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -41.61% | — | — | Bottom 11% |
| Earnings yield | -55.47% | — | — | Bottom 13% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -30.8%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -61.3%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -69.0%
- RSI (14)
- 20.9
- Relative volume
- 0.76×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 182.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 95th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- -1.39
- Correlation with S&P 500
- -0.15
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -77.4%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -78.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2024 | Jun 23, 2025 | -79.0% | 245 days | 136 days (Jan 6, 2026) |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | -77.4% | 60 days | Not yet recovered |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Jun 8, 2026 | -36.7% | 70 days | 21 days (Jul 9, 2026) |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Jan 30, 2026 | -11.6% | 2 days | 13 days (Feb 19, 2026) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $845.5M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$3.80
- Revenue (TTM)
- $7.4M
- 52-week range
- $3.92 – $31.35
| FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $24.1M |
| Gross profit | -$250,000 | $0 | -$3.2M | $20.6M |
| Operating income | -$113.8M | -$158.2M | -$300.8M | -$427.2M |
| Net income | -$111.9M | -$155.0M | -$294.2M | -$243.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$14.93 | -$2.99 | -$10.38 | -$2.32 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $0 | $17.4M | $2.7M | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
| Net income | -$93.1M | -$94.8M | -$99.0M | $59.3M | -$110.8M | -$92.9M | -$93.1M | -$142.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.73 | -$1.74 | -$1.82 | $0.77 | -$1.06 | -$0.89 | -$0.74 | -$1.11 |
| FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$107.7M | -$130.0M | -$255.1M | -$369.5M |
| Capital expenditure | -$2.4M | -$4.5M | -$1.7M | -$653,000 |
| Free cash flow | -$110.1M | -$134.5M | -$256.8M | -$370.2M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $0 | $193.3M | $2.1M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $502.3M
- Total assets
- $560.6M
- Total liabilities
- $108.5M
- Total debt
- $36.4M
- Net debt
- -$27.3M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $452.2M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 6,299,106
- Days to cover
- 1.00
- Change vs previous report
- +11.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.