Stocks · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. ARI
$6.20 -1.27% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $811.9M
Weak trendInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 29, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin widened to 149.0% from 58.6% a year earlier.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $261.0M, down 58.8% from a year earlier, slowing from 7.3% a quarter earlier.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Real Estate sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 2%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 40%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 40%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 2%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 11%
- Gross marginBottom 15%
- Operating marginTop 1%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 19%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 8%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 2%
- Interest coverBottom 39%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 10%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 49%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 38%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 11%
- 6-month returnBottom 3%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 14%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 13%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 22%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 42%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 48%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 5%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 5%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 1%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 28%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 27%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 2%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.3% | -58.8% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 78.5% | 7.7% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 58.6% | 149.0% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 8.1% | 16.7% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -58.8% | 7.3% | ↓ | Bottom 2% |
| Gross margin | 7.7% | 78.5% | ↓ | Bottom 15% |
| Operating margin | 149.0% | 58.6% | ↑ | Top 1% |
| Net margin | 50.6% | -0.7% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 16.7% | 8.1% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 23.9% | — | Top 11% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 3.5% | — | Bottom 40% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.66×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 2.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 4.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -41.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -1.65×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 17.74%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 15.22%
- Shareholder yield
- 32.95%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -5.5%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -2.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 10, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +9.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $12.00
- Target vs current price
- +93.5%
- Analysts with a rating
- 13
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 15%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | +42.3% | -1.6% | +1.0% | +1.8% | — |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -24.1% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -0.5% | -39.0% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | -3.7% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -1.3% | +2.4% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | +21.4% | -1.1% | -1.7% | +1.4% | +0.2% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | +0.0% | +0.4% | +1.5% | +5.3% | +4.2% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | -4.0% | -0.1% | +3.0% | +4.8% | +6.6% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | +39.1% | -0.2% | +10.9% | +9.3% | +2.5% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | +24.0% | +0.9% | +0.6% | +4.9% | +1.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | $0.15 | $0.11 | +42.3% | $44.4M |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.22 | $0.29 | -24.1% | $58.6M |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $0.26 | $0.27 | -3.7% | $73.2M |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.30 | $0.25 | +21.4% | $61.6M |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +0.0% | $43.1M |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.24 | $0.25 | -4.0% | $65.8M |
| Feb 10, 2025 | $0.32 | $0.23 | +39.1% | $78.0M |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.31 | $0.25 | +24.0% | -$53.8M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 7.8× | 11.2× | 20th | Top 10% |
| P/E (forward) | 12.7× | — | — | — |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.37% | — | — | Top 49% |
| Earnings yield | 12.74% | — | — | Top 10% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 5.1× – 144.3× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -15.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.6%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -6.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -34.7%
- RSI (14)
- 26.9
- Relative volume
- 1.34×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 85.0%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 97th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.76
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.35
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -44.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -51.1%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2021 | Sep 28, 2026 | -63.0% | 1326 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -10.9% | 14 days | 8 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $811.9M
- P/E (TTM)
- 7.8
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.79
- Revenue (TTM)
- $261.0M
- Dividend yield
- 68.55%
- 52-week range
- $6.13 – $11.24
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $421.2M | $641.3M | $777.0M | $701.5M | $710.5M |
| Gross profit | $357.9M | $549.1M | $649.8M | $560.4M | $568.8M |
| Operating income | $414.5M | $649.7M | $467.5M | $417.7M | $464.4M |
| Net income | $223.5M | $265.2M | $58.1M | -$119.6M | $126.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.46 | $1.68 | $0.29 | -$0.97 | $0.81 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $76.8M | $195.5M | $173.9M | $186.8M | $167.1M | $182.7M | $172.6M | -$261.4M |
| Net income | -$91.5M | $40.7M | $26.0M | $20.7M | $50.8M | $29.2M | $26.2M | $25.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.69 | $0.27 | $0.16 | $0.12 | $0.34 | $0.18 | $0.16 | $0.11 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $199.4M | $267.7M | $273.9M | $200.3M | $142.5M |
| Capital expenditure | -$133,000 | -$33.0M | -$72.6M | -$169.5M | -$100.2M |
| Free cash flow | $199.3M | $234.7M | $201.2M | $30.8M | $42.3M |
| Dividends paid | -$199.6M | -$200.6M | -$202.0M | -$185.9M | -$141.3M |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$40.8M | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.24B
- Total assets
- $2.14B
- Total liabilities
- $881.4M
- Total debt
- $371.4M
- Net debt
- -$868.1M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.25B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 10, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | $3.75 | — |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $0.25 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $0.25 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $0.25 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $0.25 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $0.25 | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Dec 31, 2024 | $0.25 | Jan 15, 2025 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | $0.25 | Oct 15, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 4,711,179
- Days to cover
- 2.48
- Change vs previous report
- -14.1%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.