Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers
Blue Bird Corporation BLBD
$56.53 +1.67% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.79B
Strong growthInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 23, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $8.22, up 134.9% year over year.
- At 6.9× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the lowest P/E of the company's past five years.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 5 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +19.1%).
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 17%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 6%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 45%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 6%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 14%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 11%
- Gross marginBottom 22%
- Operating marginTop 29%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 8%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 3%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 15%
- Interest coverTop 16%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 4%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 32%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 25%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 46%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 8%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 36%
- 6-month returnBottom 42%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 40%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 40%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 47%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 34%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 23%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 4%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 23%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 40%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 35%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 25%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 15%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 10.1% | 13.5% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 26.0% | 134.9% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 19.5% | 20.6% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 10.0% | 11.8% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 10.1% | 9.5% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 13.5% | 10.1% | ↑ | Top 17% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 134.9% | 26.0% | ↑ | Top 6% |
| Gross margin | 20.6% | 19.5% | ↑ | Bottom 22% |
| Operating margin | 11.8% | 10.0% | ↑ | Top 29% |
| Net margin | 17.5% | 8.2% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 9.5% | 10.1% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 19.1% | — | Top 11% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 22.7% | — | Top 6% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.64×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 8.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.5%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +140.0 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -0.01×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 27.9×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 1.37%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.37%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +7.9%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +2.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 27, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 5
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 7 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +19.1%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $89.00
- Target vs current price
- +57.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 12
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 92%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | +2.4% | -1.2% | -15.0% | -22.2% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +23.5% | +2.6% | +9.4% | +14.3% | +17.4% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | +25.0% | -5.2% | +8.2% | +11.0% | +22.3% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | +25.7% | +1.9% | -6.1% | -2.7% | +13.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +32.2% | +1.2% | +29.5% | +32.4% | +18.8% |
| May 7, 2025 | +0.0% | -1.6% | +5.8% | +1.8% | +13.0% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | +10.8% | -1.2% | +1.9% | -6.6% | -0.4% |
| Nov 25, 2024 | +18.5% | +4.0% | +3.0% | -5.0% | -14.3% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.28 | $1.25 | +2.4% | $517.2M |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.00 | $0.81 | +23.5% | $353.0M |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $1.00 | $0.80 | +25.0% | $333.0M |
| Nov 24, 2025 | $1.32 | $1.05 | +25.7% | $409.4M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $1.19 | $0.90 | +32.2% | $398.0M |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.96 | $0.96 | +0.0% | $358.9M |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $0.92 | $0.83 | +10.8% | $313.9M |
| Nov 25, 2024 | $0.77 | $0.65 | +18.5% | $350.2M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 6.9× | 14.1× | 0th | Top 4% |
| P/E (forward) | 11.8× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 21.8× | — | — | Bottom 25% |
| EV / Sales | 1.11× | — | — | Top 46% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.56% | — | — | Top 32% |
| Earnings yield | 14.54% | — | — | Top 4% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 9.4× – 48.3× since Jul 3, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +1.8%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +134.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -25.8%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -10.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -11.1%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -9.5%
- RSI (14)
- 37.9
- Relative volume
- 0.74×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 47.0%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 42th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.73
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.26
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -30.6%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -45.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | Oct 20, 2022 | -74.2% | 375 days | 318 days (Jan 29, 2024) |
| Jun 5, 2024 | Apr 8, 2025 | -46.0% | 210 days | 90 days (Aug 18, 2025) |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | -31.9% | 51 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 19, 2021 | Feb 12, 2021 | -25.8% | 18 days | 7 days (Feb 24, 2021) |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Dec 30, 2025 | -23.4% | 69 days | 33 days (Feb 18, 2026) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.79B
- P/E (TTM)
- 6.9
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $8.22
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.61B
- 52-week range
- $46.14 – $83.39
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $684.0M | $800.6M | $1.13B | $1.35B | $1.48B |
| Gross profit | $72.1M | $36.5M | $138.8M | $256.2M | $303.5M |
| Operating income | $6.5M | -$40.7M | $51.7M | $139.3M | $167.2M |
| Net income | -$289,000 | -$45.8M | $23.8M | $105.5M | $127.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.03 | -$1.34 | $0.74 | $3.16 | $3.88 |
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $350.2M | $313.9M | $358.9M | $398.0M | $409.4M | $333.1M | $352.6M | $517.2M |
| Net income | $24.7M | $28.7M | $26.0M | $36.5M | $36.5M | $30.8M | $29.3M | $185.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.73 | $0.86 | $0.79 | $1.12 | $1.11 | $0.94 | $0.90 | $5.27 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$54.2M | -$24.4M | $119.9M | $111.1M | $176.2M |
| Capital expenditure | -$12.2M | -$6.5M | -$8.5M | -$15.3M | -$22.9M |
| Free cash flow | -$66.5M | -$30.9M | $111.4M | $95.8M | $153.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$517,000 | $73.6M | $743,000 | -$7.3M | -$44.7M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $116.8M
- Total assets
- $1.17B
- Total liabilities
- $511.6M
- Total debt
- $115.8M
- Net debt
- -$1.1M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $654.9M
As of Jun 27, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 4,234,205
- Days to cover
- 7.62
- Change vs previous report
- +6.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.