Stocks · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. BXMT
$10.90 -3.54% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $1.84B
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to 57.3% from 69.8% a year earlier.
- The shares trade at 136.2× trailing earnings, higher than 88% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Net debt is 13.9× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Real Estate sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth30Weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 16%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 18%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 47%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 21%
Quality49Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 42%
- Gross marginTop 30%
- Operating marginTop 13%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 13%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 23%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 19%
- Interest coverBottom 35%
Value23Very weak
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 35%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 41%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 49%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 33%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 7%
Momentum8Very weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 16%
- 6-month returnBottom 3%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 12%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 12%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 22%
Revisions62Neutral
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 26%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 18%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 36%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 7%
Stability21Very weak
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 22%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 24%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 50%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 19%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -7.0% | -3.8% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 84.8% | 66.6% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 69.8% | 57.3% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 20.8% | 7.8% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -3.8% | -7.0% | ↑ | Bottom 16% |
| Gross margin | 66.6% | 84.8% | ↓ | Top 30% |
| Operating margin | 57.3% | 69.8% | ↓ | Top 13% |
| Net margin | 1.0% | -0.8% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.8% | 20.8% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.3% | — | Bottom 42% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 4.9% | — | Bottom 47% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -0.5%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -16.1 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 13.89×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 0.9×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 17.38%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 4.44%
- Shareholder yield
- 21.82%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.7%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -2.2%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +40.6%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.9%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $19.50
- Target vs current price
- +78.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 18
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 39%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | -24.8% | -8.7% | -15.0% | -15.1% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +28.9% | -4.6% | -4.4% | -7.1% | -16.6% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | +131.8% | +2.0% | -0.5% | -3.4% | -2.3% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +26.3% | +3.5% | +2.4% | +6.6% | +5.6% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | -5.0% | -3.8% | -2.5% | +0.2% | -5.2% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | +1600.0% | +0.5% | -1.4% | -0.6% | +3.4% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | +150.6% | +1.6% | +9.1% | +7.4% | +0.4% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | +36.1% | +2.6% | -0.5% | +0.2% | -1.9% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $0.31 | $0.41 | -24.8% | $158.1M |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.49 | $0.38 | +28.9% | $159.4M |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $0.51 | $0.22 | +131.8% | $83.9M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.24 | $0.19 | +26.3% | $132.7M |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.19 | $0.20 | -5.0% | $133.9M |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.17 | $0.01 | +1600.0% | $126.9M |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $0.44 | -$0.87 | +150.6% | $101.6M |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.49 | $0.36 | +36.1% | $112.0M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 136.2× | 14.5× | 88th | Bottom 35% |
| P/E (forward) | 10.5× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.5× | — | — | Bottom 49% |
| EV / Sales | 11.31× | — | — | Bottom 33% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.43% | — | — | Top 41% |
| Earnings yield | 0.73% | — | — | Bottom 35% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 9.8× – 187.1× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -10.8%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.6%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -21.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -38.0%
- RSI (14)
- 14.6
- Relative volume
- 1.33×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 32.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 75th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.58
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.34
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -47.2%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -52.8%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2021 | Oct 2, 2026 | -67.8% | 1332 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -13.1% | 14 days | 8 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
| Dec 17, 2020 | Jan 5, 2021 | -10.1% | 11 days | 23 days (Feb 8, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.84B
- P/E (TTM)
- 136.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.08
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.52B
- Dividend yield
- 17.25%
- 52-week range
- $10.88 – $20.67
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $847.7M | $1.32B | $2.01B | $1.77B | $1.52B |
| Gross profit | $759.3M | $1.21B | $1.89B | $1.65B | $1.17B |
| Operating income | $756.0M | $965.1M | $1.62B | $1.09B | $1.09B |
| Net income | $419.2M | $248.6M | $246.6M | -$204.1M | $109.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.77 | $1.46 | $1.43 | -$1.17 | $0.64 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $426.1M | $397.5M | $365.7M | $393.3M | $373.0M | $389.0M | $380.2M | $380.7M |
| Net income | -$56.4M | $37.2M | -$357,000 | $7.0M | $63.4M | $39.6M | -$6.3M | -$81.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.32 | $0.21 | -$0.00 | $0.04 | $0.37 | $0.23 | -$0.04 | -$0.48 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $382.5M | $396.8M | $458.8M | $366.5M | $275.9M |
| Capital expenditure | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$590,000 | $0 |
| Free cash flow | $382.5M | $396.8M | $458.8M | $365.9M | $275.9M |
| Dividends paid | -$370.7M | -$421.4M | -$426.9M | -$404.0M | -$322.7M |
| Net share buybacks | $638.0M | $70.7M | $0 | -$29.2M | -$109.5M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $432.8M
- Total assets
- $19.40B
- Total liabilities
- $16.14B
- Total debt
- $15.81B
- Net debt
- $15.38B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $3.26B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | $0.47 | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | $0.47 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $0.47 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $0.47 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $0.47 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $0.47 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $0.47 | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Dec 31, 2024 | $0.47 | Jan 15, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 10,873,976
- Days to cover
- 5.98
- Change vs previous report
- +1.4%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- May 7, 2013
- 1-for-10
- Apr 3, 2003
- 1-for-3