Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE
$109.65 +1.57% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $5.45B
Strong trend
Next earnings report: Oct 27, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Over the past year the stock returned +100.6%, ahead of the S&P 500 by 85.5 percentage points.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 11 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +9.8%).
- Net debt is 5.9× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth78Positive
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 42%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 37%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 28%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 38%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 41%
Quality59Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 46%
- Gross marginTop 28%
- Operating marginBottom 45%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 42%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 47%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 23%
- Interest coverTop 17%
Value23Very weak
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 42%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 36%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 24%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 33%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 27%
Momentum98Exceptional
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 3%
- 6-month returnTop 3%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 4%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 7%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 7%
Revisions31Weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 49%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 8%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 18%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 3%
Stability47Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 38%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 19%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 49%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 23%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 5.1% | 5.7% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 6.9% | 13.2% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 60.9% | 46.4% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 5.4% | 5.3% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 3.6% | 5.3% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 5.7% | 5.1% | ↑ | Top 42% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 13.2% | 6.9% | ↑ | Top 37% |
| Gross margin | 46.4% | 60.9% | ↓ | Top 28% |
| Operating margin | 5.3% | 5.4% | ↓ | Bottom 45% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 4.3% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.3% | 3.6% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 6.7% | — | Top 46% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 4.3% | — | Top 38% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.98×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +2.3 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 5.92×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 22.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 1.01%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.63%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.65%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 3, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 11
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +9.8%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $83.64
- Target vs current price
- -23.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 48
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 31%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | +22.0% | +2.3% | +20.5% | +31.7% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +1.9% | -0.0% | -2.5% | +3.6% | +35.2% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | +2.0% | +2.4% | +2.8% | -7.2% | -9.6% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | +13.3% | -2.8% | -15.1% | -19.5% | +5.3% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | +9.4% | -4.1% | -5.0% | -6.5% | -15.9% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | +14.8% | +1.5% | -0.3% | +11.0% | +32.5% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | +14.3% | -2.7% | -2.5% | -16.1% | -2.7% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | +18.4% | -0.9% | +5.3% | +12.8% | +19.8% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $1.44 | $1.18 | +22.0% | $1.03B |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $1.05 | $1.03 | +1.9% | $978.8M |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $1.00 | $0.98 | +2.0% | $961.6M |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $0.68 | $0.60 | +13.3% | $907.2M |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $1.16 | $1.06 | +9.4% | $955.8M |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.93 | $0.81 | +14.8% | $927.2M |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.04 | $0.91 | +14.3% | $921.0M |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.58 | $0.49 | +18.4% | $865.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 29.7× | 18.5× | 75th | Bottom 42% |
| P/E (forward) | 24.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 23.0× | — | — | Bottom 24% |
| EV / Sales | 1.89× | — | — | Bottom 33% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.79% | — | — | Bottom 36% |
| Earnings yield | 3.37% | — | — | Bottom 42% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 14.3× – 181.2× since Sep 28, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +100.6%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +13.2%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +48.1%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 9
- Days above the 200-day average
- 98
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +9.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +8.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +4.1%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +48.3%
- RSI (14)
- 60.1
- Relative volume
- 0.53×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 47.4%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 81th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.03
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.41
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -6.5%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -37.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2021 | Jun 30, 2022 | -58.6% | 289 days | 753 days (Jul 2, 2025) |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Nov 20, 2025 | -37.0% | 85 days | 137 days (Jun 10, 2026) |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | -18.3% | 25 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 27, 2021 | Feb 2, 2021 | -13.1% | 4 days | 5 days (Feb 9, 2021) |
| Oct 22, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -13.0% | 4 days | 8 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $5.45B
- P/E (TTM)
- 29.7
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $3.69
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.88B
- Dividend yield
- 1.07%
- 52-week range
- $43.07 – $118.46
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.93B | $3.30B | $3.44B | $3.58B | $3.75B |
| Gross profit | $1.20B | $1.28B | $1.41B | $2.78B | $2.94B |
| Operating income | $82.3M | $38.9M | $108.6M | $178.3M | $187.3M |
| Net income | $72.4M | $43.1M | $101.4M | $156.8M | $148.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.01 | $0.86 | $2.07 | $3.20 | $3.07 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $865.5M | $921.0M | $927.2M | $955.8M | $907.2M | $961.6M | $978.8M | $1.03B |
| Net income | $30.0M | $41.2M | $32.9M | $54.8M | $31.9M | $28.8M | $49.5M | $68.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.61 | $0.84 | $0.67 | $1.14 | $0.66 | $0.60 | $1.02 | $1.41 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $213.0M | $161.9M | $218.4M | $268.3M | $301.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$67.5M | -$113.1M | -$153.2M | -$160.4M | -$146.2M |
| Free cash flow | $145.5M | $48.8M | $65.2M | $108.0M | $155.1M |
| Dividends paid | -$337,000 | -$42.3M | -$53.2M | -$53.0M | -$52.2M |
| Net share buybacks | $186.0M | -$63.1M | -$46.1M | -$18.2M | -$129.3M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $195.2M
- Total assets
- $3.29B
- Total liabilities
- $2.78B
- Total debt
- $2.08B
- Net debt
- $1.89B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $519.0M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 3, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | $0.30 | Aug 25, 2026 |
| May 13, 2026 | $0.30 | May 26, 2026 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.30 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Nov 10, 2025 | $0.27 | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | $0.27 | Aug 26, 2025 |
| May 14, 2025 | $0.27 | May 27, 2025 |
| Mar 5, 2025 | $0.27 | Mar 18, 2025 |
| Nov 13, 2024 | $0.27 | Nov 26, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 9,908,462
- Days to cover
- 7.39
- Change vs previous report
- +4.9%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Dec 9, 2004
- 3-for-2
- Jun 19, 2001
- 3-for-2
- Jun 9, 2000
- 3-for-2
- Apr 2, 1998
- 3-for-2
- Mar 16, 1994
- 3-for-2