Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN
$76.05 +1.64% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $5.30B
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- At 13.0× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the lowest P/E of the company's past five years.
- Net debt is 4.1× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth66Positive
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 42%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 49%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 42%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 10%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 48%
Quality68Positive
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 42%
- Gross marginTop 18%
- Operating marginTop 4%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 43%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 45%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 33%
- Interest coverBottom 37%
Value78Positive
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 19%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 40%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 24%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 14%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 8%
Momentum29Very weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 43%
- 6-month returnBottom 28%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 35%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 34%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Revisions74Positive
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 48%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 13%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 2%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 15%
Stability67Positive
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 29%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 41%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 14%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 33%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 5.8% | 5.7% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -3.9% | 0.2% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 33.5% | 52.9% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 25.3% | 24.2% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 13.0% | 12.8% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 5.7% | 5.8% | ↓ | Top 42% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 0.2% | -3.9% | ↑ | Bottom 49% |
| Gross margin | 52.9% | 33.5% | ↑ | Top 18% |
| Operating margin | 24.2% | 25.3% | ↓ | Top 4% |
| Net margin | 13.7% | 15.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 12.8% | 13.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 7.5% | — | Top 42% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 17.4% | — | Top 10% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.94×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.1%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +3.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 4.11×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 2.5×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.60%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 1.64%
- Shareholder yield
- 2.24%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -3.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -3.1%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 5 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +10.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $132.00
- Target vs current price
- +73.6%
- Analysts with a rating
- 23
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 100%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | +0.0% | -0.8% | -4.3% | -0.6% | — |
| Apr 22, 2026 | +14.2% | -2.1% | +9.6% | -4.5% | -7.6% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | +14.1% | -0.1% | -2.9% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | +12.4% | -0.4% | +3.1% | +8.2% | +10.6% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | +2.3% | +1.0% | +2.4% | -4.0% | -19.6% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | +2.9% | +2.0% | -11.2% | -5.5% | +2.5% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | -6.1% | -1.7% | -6.0% | -9.2% | -18.7% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | -8.5% | -0.1% | +7.4% | +3.4% | -5.8% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $3.45 | $3.45 | +0.0% | $980.0M |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $1.21 | $1.06 | +14.2% | $663.0M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.97 | $0.85 | +14.1% | $665.9M |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $1.09 | $0.97 | +12.4% | $683.0M |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $3.10 | $3.03 | +2.3% | $934.4M |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $1.07 | $1.04 | +2.9% | $642.6M |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.92 | $0.98 | -6.1% | $624.2M |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.97 | $1.06 | -8.5% | $628.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 13.0× | 21.3× | 0th | Top 19% |
| P/E (forward) | 10.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.9× | — | — | Top 24% |
| EV / Sales | 3.30× | — | — | Bottom 14% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.22% | — | — | Top 40% |
| Earnings yield | 7.68% | — | — | Top 19% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 15.2× – 43.9× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -21.3%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +0.2%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -19.0%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -2.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -10.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -16.6%
- RSI (14)
- 34.6
- Relative volume
- 1.04×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 33.9%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 67th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.60
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.31
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -35.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -49.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2023 | Oct 1, 2026 | -49.8% | 858 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 18, 2021 | Jun 16, 2022 | -32.4% | 167 days | 198 days (Mar 31, 2023) |
| Mar 12, 2021 | Jul 19, 2021 | -30.3% | 88 days | 62 days (Oct 14, 2021) |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Oct 30, 2020 | -15.2% | 16 days | 6 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
| Jan 22, 2021 | Jan 27, 2021 | -13.7% | 3 days | 7 days (Feb 5, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $5.30B
- P/E (TTM)
- 13.0
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $5.84
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.99B
- Dividend yield
- 0.58%
- 52-week range
- $73.98 – $118.35
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.60B | $1.81B | $2.46B | $2.73B | $2.93B |
| Gross profit | $446.1M | $566.4M | $795.7M | $938.5M | $982.6M |
| Operating income | $284.4M | $321.8M | $564.0M | $709.0M | $736.4M |
| Net income | $249.1M | $439.4M | $417.3M | $426.8M | $379.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.18 | $5.71 | $5.48 | $5.68 | $5.32 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $628.5M | $624.2M | $642.6M | $934.4M | $683.0M | $665.9M | $663.0M | $980.0M |
| Net income | $64.4M | $71.7M | $76.7M | $216.9M | $37.9M | $49.8M | $81.0M | $241.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.86 | $0.95 | $1.02 | $3.00 | $0.53 | $0.71 | $1.16 | $3.44 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $335.5M | $536.8M | $605.8M | $772.7M | $769.8M |
| Capital expenditure | -$91.8M | -$456.8M | -$676.5M | -$547.0M | -$460.2M |
| Free cash flow | $243.7M | $80.0M | -$70.7M | $225.7M | $309.6M |
| Dividends paid | -$24.8M | -$26.0M | -$27.1M | -$29.2M | -$30.8M |
| Net share buybacks | -$297.5M | -$174.9M | -$55.9M | -$186.0M | -$427.8M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $196.0M
- Total assets
- $7.52B
- Total liabilities
- $6.13B
- Total debt
- $4.78B
- Net debt
- $4.58B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.34B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | $0.44 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | $0.41 | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Nov 30, 2023 | $0.38 | Jan 5, 2024 |
| Dec 1, 2022 | $0.71 | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Dec 2, 2021 | $0.67 | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Dec 3, 2020 | $0.62 | Jan 6, 2021 |
| Dec 5, 2019 | $0.58 | Jan 3, 2020 |
| Dec 6, 2018 | $1.63 | Jan 4, 2019 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 4,410,884
- Days to cover
- 4.74
- Change vs previous report
- +6.2%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- May 22, 2023
- 2-for-1
- Jan 28, 2019
- 3-for-1
- Apr 15, 1998
- 2-for-1