Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG
$32.36 +0.12% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $41.51B
High quality
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 12 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +2.8%).
- The shares trade at 29.7× trailing earnings, lower than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 36%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 45%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 45%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 17%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 26%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 13%
- Gross marginBottom 29%
- Operating marginTop 17%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 44%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 19%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 43%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 42%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 36%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 26%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 10%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 16%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 49%
- 6-month returnBottom 44%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 39%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 44%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 34%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 6%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 21%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 48%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 37%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 44%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 40%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 43%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 5.7% | 7.3% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -3.5% | -2.7% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 26.0% | 24.1% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 16.9% | 15.2% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 12.7% | 12.6% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 7.3% | 5.7% | ↑ | Top 36% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -2.7% | -3.5% | ↑ | Bottom 45% |
| Gross margin | 24.1% | 26.0% | ↓ | Bottom 29% |
| Operating margin | 15.2% | 16.9% | ↓ | Top 17% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 13.3% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 12.6% | 12.7% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 18.2% | — | Top 13% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 11.4% | — | Top 17% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.64×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -10.2%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.6%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -53.3 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.28×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 6.71%
- Shareholder yield
- 6.71%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -4.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -2.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 31, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 12
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +2.8%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $42.41
- Target vs current price
- +31.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 67
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 69%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | +3.5% | +2.2% | +0.9% | +11.7% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +1.1% | +0.4% | -1.7% | -0.5% | -3.3% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | +5.0% | +1.7% | +2.8% | -4.1% | -14.3% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +1.5% | -1.2% | -21.2% | -17.0% | -1.3% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | +1.2% | +0.8% | -15.3% | -17.4% | -20.3% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | +4.7% | +3.5% | +7.5% | +9.3% | +14.5% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | +4.2% | +1.1% | -1.0% | -8.9% | -13.4% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | +8.0% | -0.2% | -7.0% | +2.3% | -3.8% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.33 | $0.32 | +3.5% | $3.35B |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +1.1% | $3.09B |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $0.25 | $0.24 | +5.0% | $2.98B |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +1.5% | $3.00B |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.33 | $0.33 | +1.2% | $3.06B |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $0.29 | $0.28 | +4.7% | $2.88B |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.25 | $0.24 | +4.2% | $2.85B |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.27 | $0.25 | +8.0% | $2.79B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 29.7× | 51.5× | 5th | Bottom 42% |
| P/E (forward) | 28.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.5× | — | — | Bottom 26% |
| EV / Sales | 3.76× | — | — | Bottom 10% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.78% | — | — | Bottom 36% |
| Earnings yield | 3.37% | — | — | Bottom 42% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 28.8× – 90.3× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -17.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -2.7%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -16.4%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.3%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -6.7%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -7.2%
- RSI (14)
- 38.9
- Relative volume
- 1.08×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 47.9%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 92th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.90
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.34
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -23.6%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -58.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2024 | Jun 4, 2026 | -58.9% | 491 days | Not yet recovered |
| Sep 23, 2021 | Jun 14, 2022 | -38.1% | 182 days | 217 days (Apr 26, 2023) |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Oct 13, 2023 | -17.3% | 62 days | 22 days (Nov 14, 2023) |
| Feb 9, 2021 | May 19, 2021 | -15.7% | 69 days | 29 days (Jun 30, 2021) |
| Oct 21, 2020 | Nov 2, 2020 | -13.0% | 8 days | 31 days (Dec 16, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $41.51B
- P/E (TTM)
- 29.7
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.09
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12.42B
- 52-week range
- $28.04 – $42.82
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.55B | $8.63B | $9.87B | $11.31B | $11.93B |
| Gross profit | $1.71B | $2.06B | $2.59B | $3.02B | $3.03B |
| Operating income | $804.9M | $1.16B | $1.56B | $1.92B | $2.01B |
| Net income | $653.0M | $899.1M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.46 | $0.64 | $0.89 | $1.11 | $1.14 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.79B | $2.85B | $2.88B | $3.06B | $3.00B | $2.98B | $3.09B | $3.35B |
| Net income | $387.4M | $331.8M | $386.6M | $436.1M | $382.1M | $330.9M | $302.8M | $403.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.28 | $0.24 | $0.28 | $0.32 | $0.29 | $0.25 | $0.23 | $0.32 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.28B | $1.32B | $1.78B | $2.11B | $2.11B |
| Capital expenditure | -$442.5M | -$479.2M | -$560.7M | -$593.6M | -$666.3M |
| Free cash flow | $839.6M | $844.0M | $1.22B | $1.51B | $1.45B |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$466.5M | -$830.1M | -$592.3M | -$1.00B | -$2.43B |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $677.9M
- Total assets
- $8.86B
- Total liabilities
- $6.66B
- Total debt
- $5.42B
- Net debt
- $5.19B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.20B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 31, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 40,240,541
- Days to cover
- 3.73
- Change vs previous report
- +1.3%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jun 26, 2024
- 50-for-1