Stocks · Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. ESRT
$4.17 +0.97% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $715.0M
Weak trendInexpensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 2, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $-0.03, down 112.1% year over year.
- Net debt is 6.8× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Real Estate sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 37%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 8%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 13%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 35%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 44%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 39%
- Gross marginBottom 5%
- Operating marginBottom 35%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 13%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 26%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 37%
- Interest coverBottom 48%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 27%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 16%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 11%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 19%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 7%
- 6-month returnBottom 21%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 10%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 11%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 22%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 6%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 19%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 10%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 41%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 11%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 13%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 17%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 37%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 1.5% | 2.1% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -41.2% | -112.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 53.2% | -22.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 19.4% | 16.8% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 8.1% | 13.2% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 2.1% | 1.5% | ↑ | Bottom 37% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -112.1% | -41.2% | ↓ | Bottom 8% |
| Gross margin | -22.9% | 53.2% | ↓ | Bottom 5% |
| Operating margin | 16.8% | 19.4% | ↓ | Bottom 35% |
| Net margin | 0.9% | 5.8% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 13.2% | 8.1% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.0% | — | Bottom 39% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 2.8% | — | Bottom 35% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.2%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 3.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -3.9 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 6.80×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.2×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 3.36%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.84%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.19%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 3
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +100.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.4%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $5.00
- Target vs current price
- +19.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 16
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 25%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | — | +2.5% | -12.7% | -15.7% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | — | -1.9% | -3.5% | +0.7% | -1.2% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | — | +1.9% | -3.8% | -17.7% | -11.3% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | — | -2.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% | -14.8% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | — | +2.2% | -4.2% | -4.1% | -4.8% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | +400.0% | -3.6% | +2.6% | +4.7% | +2.2% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | +40.0% | -0.3% | -4.0% | -9.6% | -12.6% |
| Oct 21, 2024 | +60.0% | -1.8% | -4.5% | -7.2% | -15.9% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | -$0.15 | — | — | $196.9M |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.01 | — | — | $190.3M |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $0.12 | — | — | $199.2M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.05 | — | — | $197.7M |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.04 | — | — | $191.3M |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $0.05 | $0.01 | +400.0% | $180.1M |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.07 | $0.05 | +40.0% | $197.6M |
| Oct 21, 2024 | $0.08 | $0.05 | +60.0% | $199.6M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 5.4× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.1× | — | — | Top 11% |
| EV / Sales | 3.64× | — | — | Top 19% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.52% | — | — | Top 16% |
| Earnings yield | -0.62% | — | — | Bottom 27% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 16.9× – 88.8× since Jun 30, 2022. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -45.8%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -112.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +29.7%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -10.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -9.1%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -23.8%
- RSI (14)
- 43.7
- Relative volume
- 0.99×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 44.0%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 88th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.91
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.43
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -47.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -65.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2021 | Sep 18, 2026 | -69.3% | 1324 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Oct 30, 2020 | -20.6% | 16 days | 6 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
| Dec 4, 2020 | Jan 5, 2021 | -11.6% | 20 days | 25 days (Feb 10, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $715.0M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$0.03
- Revenue (TTM)
- $784.2M
- Dividend yield
- 3.36%
- 52-week range
- $3.93 – $8.04
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $607.9M | $707.0M | $739.6M | $763.2M | $768.3M |
| Gross profit | $328.4M | $385.7M | $400.6M | $409.0M | $13.7M |
| Operating income | $79.1M | $127.0M | $146.7M | $158.7M | $135.6M |
| Net income | -$6.5M | $40.6M | $53.2M | $51.6M | $47.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.05 | $0.22 | $0.30 | $0.28 | $0.18 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $199.6M | $197.6M | $180.1M | $190.8M | $197.7M | $199.2M | $190.3M | $196.9M |
| Net income | $14.6M | $12.2M | $10.3M | $7.6M | $9.0M | $20.7M | $2.3M | -$24.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.08 | $0.05 | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $0.07 | $0.00 | -$0.15 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $212.5M | $211.2M | $232.5M | $260.9M | $249.1M |
| Capital expenditure | -$95.0M | -$126.3M | $0 | $0 | -$198.5M |
| Free cash flow | $117.4M | $84.9M | $232.5M | $260.9M | $50.6M |
| Dividends paid | -$18.1M | -$23.1M | -$22.7M | -$23.2M | -$23.7M |
| Net share buybacks | -$46.7M | -$90.2M | -$13.1M | $0 | -$8.1M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $85.6M
- Total assets
- $4.27B
- Total liabilities
- $2.48B
- Total debt
- $2.23B
- Net debt
- $2.14B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.04B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | $0.04 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | $0.04 | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $0.04 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | $0.04 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | $0.04 | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | $0.04 | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | $0.04 | Mar 31, 2025 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | $0.04 | Dec 31, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 11,639,275
- Days to cover
- 2.88
- Change vs previous report
- +22.3%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.