Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
National Vision Holdings, Inc. EYE
$16.40 +0.00% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.31B
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 14 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +49.8%).
- Net debt is 3.8× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 34%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 30%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 29%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 26%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 38%
- Gross marginTop 16%
- Operating marginBottom 38%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 31%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 34%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 37%
- Interest coverTop 40%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 45%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 35%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 42%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 40%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 26%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 8%
- 6-month returnBottom 10%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 13%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 23%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 21%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 3%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 18%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 18%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 43%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 43%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 35%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 37%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 9.2% | 7.8% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 56.2% | 55.2% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 0.4% | 4.1% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 3.0% | 2.4% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 7.8% | 9.2% | ↓ | Top 34% |
| Gross margin | 55.2% | 56.2% | ↓ | Top 16% |
| Operating margin | 4.1% | 0.4% | ↑ | Bottom 38% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | -0.8% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.4% | 3.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.6% | — | Bottom 38% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 6.5% | — | Top 29% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 2.58×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.1%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -31.9 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.78×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 5.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 2.18%
- Shareholder yield
- 2.18%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.7%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.9%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jul 4, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 14
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +49.8%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $27.20
- Target vs current price
- +65.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 14
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 71%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | +37.4% | -11.6% | -14.8% | -22.4% | — |
| May 13, 2026 | +4.7% | -19.2% | -19.2% | -16.0% | +7.7% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | +148.8% | +9.0% | +3.3% | -2.7% | -34.7% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | +8.3% | -3.5% | -5.7% | +11.4% | +5.7% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +38.5% | -3.7% | -7.2% | -8.1% | +8.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | +17.2% | +17.1% | +41.5% | +56.7% | +81.6% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | +42.9% | +11.6% | +5.7% | +17.7% | +63.0% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | +140.0% | -2.5% | -7.5% | -7.8% | -6.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $0.25 | $0.18 | +37.4% | $498.8M |
| May 13, 2026 | $0.45 | $0.43 | +4.7% | $543.9M |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.15 | $0.06 | +148.8% | $503.4M |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.13 | $0.12 | +8.3% | $487.3M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.18 | $0.13 | +38.5% | $486.4M |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.34 | $0.29 | +17.2% | $510.3M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | -$0.04 | -$0.07 | +42.9% | $437.3M |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.12 | $0.05 | +140.0% | $451.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 26.8× | 33.3× | 17th | Bottom 45% |
| P/E (forward) | 16.3× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.3× | — | — | Top 42% |
| EV / Sales | 0.97× | — | — | Top 40% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.74% | — | — | Bottom 35% |
| Earnings yield | 3.73% | — | — | Bottom 45% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 19.8× – 78.0× since Jul 3, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -6.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -11.7%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -26.7%
- RSI (14)
- 40.5
- Relative volume
- 0.91×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 45.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 43th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.85
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.24
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -44.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -59.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2021 | Sep 6, 2024 | -85.1% | 711 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 12, 2021 | Mar 24, 2021 | -18.1% | 49 days | 27 days (May 3, 2021) |
| Nov 9, 2020 | Nov 17, 2020 | -13.0% | 6 days | 33 days (Jan 6, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.31B
- P/E (TTM)
- 26.8
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.61
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.03B
- 52-week range
- $14.75 – $30.02
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.08B | $1.64B | $2.13B | $1.82B | $1.99B |
| Gross profit | $1.17B | $977.0M | $1.13B | $1.06B | $1.08B |
| Operating income | $174.9M | $52.8M | -$46.8M | -$10.4M | $61.3M |
| Net income | $128.2M | $42.1M | -$65.9M | -$28.5M | $29.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.43 | $0.52 | -$0.84 | -$0.36 | $0.37 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $451.5M | $437.3M | $510.3M | $486.4M | $487.3M | $503.4M | $543.9M | $498.8M |
| Net income | -$8.5M | -$28.6M | $14.2M | $8.7M | $3.4M | $3.3M | $31.2M | $12.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.11 | -$0.36 | $0.18 | $0.11 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.38 | $0.15 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $258.9M | $119.2M | $173.0M | $133.6M | $146.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$95.5M | -$113.5M | -$114.8M | -$95.5M | -$72.8M |
| Free cash flow | $163.4M | $5.7M | $58.3M | $38.1M | $73.5M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$61.5M | -$80.6M | -$26.6M | -$1.6M | $190,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $36.0M
- Total assets
- $1.98B
- Total liabilities
- $1.09B
- Total debt
- $697.0M
- Net debt
- $661.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $897.0M
As of Jul 4, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 15,673,277
- Days to cover
- 7.40
- Change vs previous report
- +11.5%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.