Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Graphic Packaging Holding Company GPK
$8.78 -2.01% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $2.60B
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.66, down 62.7% year over year.
- Over the past year the stock returned -55.1%, behind the S&P 500 by 70.2 percentage points.
- Net debt is 6.1× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth17Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 32%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 17%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 26%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 47%
Quality29Very weak
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 42%
- Gross marginBottom 11%
- Operating marginTop 49%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 12%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 45%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 22%
- Interest coverBottom 36%
Value74Positive
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 20%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 39%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 25%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 39%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 40%
Momentum12Very weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 8%
- 6-month returnBottom 35%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 8%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 12%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Revisions40Weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 42%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 48%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 45%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 33%
Stability36Weak
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 49%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 24%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 35%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 22%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -0.2% | 0.0% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -55.1% | -62.7% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 21.4% | 15.5% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 11.9% | 6.9% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -4.6% | 2.2% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 0.0% | -0.2% | ↑ | Bottom 32% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -62.7% | -55.1% | ↓ | Bottom 17% |
| Gross margin | 15.5% | 21.4% | ↓ | Bottom 11% |
| Operating margin | 6.9% | 11.9% | ↓ | Top 49% |
| Net margin | 2.2% | 6.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.2% | -4.6% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 4.6% | — | Bottom 42% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -3.0% | — | Bottom 26% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.2%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +9.8 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 6.10×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 2.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 5.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 2.93%
- Shareholder yield
- 7.93%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -1.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 2
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +14.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -2.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $10.50
- Target vs current price
- +19.6%
- Analysts with a rating
- 27
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 48%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | +14.8% | +4.8% | +4.9% | -1.3% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | +50.0% | +12.2% | +6.9% | +12.6% | +14.6% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | -14.7% | -16.0% | -10.1% | -23.7% | -35.0% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +7.4% | +8.9% | +3.0% | +4.0% | -6.4% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | +5.0% | -2.9% | -5.1% | -1.7% | -24.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | -8.9% | -15.6% | -13.7% | -11.9% | -8.6% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | -6.3% | -2.5% | -3.0% | -5.1% | -7.0% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | -5.9% | -5.6% | -8.4% | -2.5% | -8.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.14 | $0.12 | +14.8% | $2.19B |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.09 | $0.06 | +50.0% | $2.16B |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $0.29 | $0.34 | -14.7% | $2.10B |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.58 | $0.54 | +7.4% | $2.19B |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $0.42 | $0.40 | +5.0% | $2.20B |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.51 | $0.56 | -8.9% | $2.12B |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.59 | $0.63 | -6.3% | $2.10B |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.64 | $0.68 | -5.9% | $2.22B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 13.3× | 12.4× | 62th | Top 20% |
| P/E (forward) | 12.4× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.9× | — | — | Top 25% |
| EV / Sales | 0.95× | — | — | Top 39% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.28% | — | — | Top 39% |
| Earnings yield | 7.52% | — | — | Top 20% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 8.0× – 29.4× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -55.1%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -62.7%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +42.0%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.3%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -5.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -17.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -22.7%
- RSI (14)
- 29.1
- Relative volume
- 1.23×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 40.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 82th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.85
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.36
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -54.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -71.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2024 | Oct 2, 2026 | -71.2% | 510 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jun 12, 2023 | Oct 23, 2023 | -25.2% | 92 days | 94 days (Mar 8, 2024) |
| Sep 12, 2022 | Sep 27, 2022 | -17.0% | 11 days | 83 days (Jan 26, 2023) |
| Jun 2, 2022 | Jun 17, 2022 | -16.0% | 11 days | 36 days (Aug 10, 2022) |
| Nov 16, 2021 | Jan 27, 2022 | -14.3% | 49 days | 56 days (Apr 19, 2022) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.60B
- P/E (TTM)
- 13.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.66
- Revenue (TTM)
- $8.64B
- Dividend yield
- 5.01%
- 52-week range
- $8.70 – $19.68
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.16B | $9.44B | $9.43B | $8.81B | $8.62B |
| Gross profit | $1.08B | $1.82B | $2.19B | $2.00B | $1.61B |
| Operating income | $551.0M | $1.04B | $1.33B | $1.15B | $869.0M |
| Net income | $204.0M | $522.0M | $723.0M | $658.0M | $444.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.68 | $1.69 | $2.34 | $2.16 | $1.48 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.22B | $2.10B | $2.12B | $2.20B | $2.19B | $2.10B | $2.16B | $2.19B |
| Net income | $165.0M | $138.0M | $127.0M | $104.0M | $142.0M | $71.0M | -$43.0M | $24.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.55 | $0.46 | $0.42 | $0.34 | $0.48 | $0.24 | -$0.14 | $0.08 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $609.0M | $1.09B | $1.14B | $840.0M | $841.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$802.0M | -$549.0M | -$804.0M | -$1.20B | -$922.0M |
| Free cash flow | -$193.0M | $541.0M | $340.0M | -$363.0M | -$81.0M |
| Dividends paid | -$92.0M | -$92.0M | -$123.0M | -$122.0M | -$128.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$15.0M | -$46.0M | -$76.0M | -$225.0M | -$184.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $205.0M
- Total assets
- $11.66B
- Total liabilities
- $8.42B
- Total debt
- $5.81B
- Net debt
- $5.61B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $3.24B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | $0.11 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | $0.11 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $0.11 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | $0.11 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | $0.11 | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | $0.11 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | $0.11 | Apr 5, 2025 |
| Dec 13, 2024 | $0.10 | Jan 5, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 23,370,852
- Days to cover
- 3.68
- Change vs previous report
- +2.2%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jan 3, 2000
- 9-for-5
- Sep 19, 1995
- 2-for-1