Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Green Brick Partners, Inc. GRBK
$66.66 +0.33% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $2.87B
Low risk
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 10.0× trailing earnings, higher than 86% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 5 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +16.4%).
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $1.95B, down 8.7% from a year earlier, slowing from -6.6% a quarter earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 11%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 36%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 22%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 35%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 20%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 20%
- Gross marginBottom 40%
- Operating marginTop 11%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 7%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 3%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 19%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 10%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 36%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 14%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 41%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 18%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 44%
- 6-month returnTop 48%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 42%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 34%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 47%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 39%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 23%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 12%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 10%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 17%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 36%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 19%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -6.6% | -8.7% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -17.9% | -14.9% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 32.2% | 31.2% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 21.3% | 19.5% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 7.6% | 5.6% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -8.7% | -6.6% | ↓ | Bottom 11% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -14.9% | -17.9% | ↑ | Bottom 36% |
| Gross margin | 31.2% | 32.2% | ↓ | Bottom 40% |
| Operating margin | 19.5% | 21.3% | ↓ | Top 11% |
| Net margin | 14.9% | 16.4% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.6% | 7.6% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 13.6% | — | Top 20% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 5.1% | — | Top 35% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.39×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 6.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.5%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +3.9 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.45×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.15%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 1.39%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.54%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -1.8%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 5
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +16.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -2.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Analysts with a rating
- 12
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 25%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | +19.7% | -2.9% | -2.1% | -0.1% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +12.1% | -4.2% | -6.6% | -3.1% | +3.1% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | +9.9% | -4.9% | -8.2% | -19.2% | -16.0% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +23.8% | -3.6% | -5.1% | +1.7% | +4.2% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | +12.8% | -3.1% | -0.2% | +5.8% | +2.9% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | -5.1% | +1.3% | +1.1% | +0.1% | +13.6% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | +12.1% | -3.4% | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.8% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | -4.3% | +0.9% | -4.1% | -4.3% | -18.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $1.70 | $1.42 | +19.7% | $493.8M |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $1.39 | $1.24 | +12.1% | $456.0M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $1.78 | $1.62 | +9.9% | $552.6M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $1.77 | $1.43 | +23.8% | $499.1M |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $1.85 | $1.64 | +12.8% | $549.1M |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $1.67 | $1.76 | -5.1% | $497.6M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $2.31 | $2.06 | +12.1% | $567.3M |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.98 | $2.07 | -4.3% | $523.7M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 10.0× | 8.3× | 86th | Top 10% |
| P/E (forward) | 10.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.5× | — | — | Top 14% |
| EV / Sales | 1.56× | — | — | Bottom 41% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.78% | — | — | Bottom 36% |
| Earnings yield | 9.98% | — | — | Top 10% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 3.7× – 10.8× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -12.6%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -14.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +31.9%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.9%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -5.0%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -4.5%
- RSI (14)
- 41.7
- Relative volume
- 1.01×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 26.1%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 0th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.86
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.37
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -17.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -36.1%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2021 | Jun 16, 2022 | -45.1% | 129 days | 157 days (Feb 1, 2023) |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Apr 8, 2025 | -36.1% | 118 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jul 19, 2023 | Oct 20, 2023 | -34.7% | 66 days | 104 days (Mar 21, 2024) |
| May 3, 2021 | Oct 5, 2021 | -26.3% | 108 days | 43 days (Dec 6, 2021) |
| Nov 23, 2020 | Jan 27, 2021 | -21.2% | 43 days | 46 days (Apr 5, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.87B
- P/E (TTM)
- 10.0
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $6.65
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.95B
- 52-week range
- $60.44 – $83.18
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.40B | $1.76B | $1.78B | $2.10B | $2.04B |
| Gross profit | $362.1M | $523.0M | $548.2M | $703.5M | $635.7M |
| Operating income | $230.5M | $359.1M | $355.2M | $477.0M | $409.4M |
| Net income | $190.2M | $291.9M | $284.6M | $381.6M | $313.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.72 | $6.02 | $6.14 | $8.45 | $7.07 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $523.7M | $567.3M | $497.6M | $549.1M | $499.1M | $494.1M | $465.5M | $493.8M |
| Net income | $89.1M | $103.8M | $75.1M | $81.9M | $77.9M | $78.4M | $60.9M | $74.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.98 | $2.31 | $1.67 | $1.85 | $1.77 | $1.78 | $1.40 | $1.70 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$92.4M | $90.7M | $213.3M | $25.9M | $213.2M |
| Capital expenditure | -$2.0M | -$2.0M | -$7.8M | -$4.4M | -$4.8M |
| Free cash flow | -$94.4M | $88.7M | $205.5M | $21.5M | $208.4M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | -$2.8M | -$2.9M | -$2.9M | -$2.9M |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | -$101.5M | -$45.8M | $21.9M | -$83.8M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $131.6M
- Total assets
- $2.63B
- Total liabilities
- $601.8M
- Total debt
- $314.5M
- Net debt
- $182.9M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.98B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 2,483,136
- Days to cover
- 5.99
- Change vs previous report
- +15.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Sep 24, 2014
- 383-for-250
- Jun 15, 2012
- 1-for-20