Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers
Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG
$24.55 -1.13% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $2.58B
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count fell 12.3% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- The shares trade at 15.1× trailing earnings, higher than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 90 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth13Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 12%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 36%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 7%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 10%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 24%
Quality24Very weak
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 29%
- Gross marginBottom 28%
- Operating marginBottom 44%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 4%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 6%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 29%
- Interest coverTop 19%
Value48Neutral
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 28%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 12%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 22%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 27%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 7%
Momentum62Neutral
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 50%
- 6-month returnTop 30%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 42%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 24%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 34%
Revisions5Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 18%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 33%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 12%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 22%
Stability61Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 38%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 40%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 37%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 29%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -9.8% | -8.1% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -34.3% | -15.5% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 31.9% | 23.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 4.1% | 5.1% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 18.4% | -3.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -8.1% | -9.8% | ↑ | Bottom 12% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -15.5% | -34.3% | ↑ | Bottom 36% |
| Gross margin | 23.9% | 31.9% | ↓ | Bottom 28% |
| Operating margin | 5.1% | 4.1% | ↑ | Bottom 44% |
| Net margin | 4.9% | 5.4% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -3.2% | 18.4% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 2.4% | — | Bottom 29% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -8.1% | — | Bottom 10% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- -0.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 2.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.2%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -12.8 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 1.18×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 19.3×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 3.21%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 13.95%
- Shareholder yield
- 17.16%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -12.3%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -9.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -14.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $27.60
- Target vs current price
- +12.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 36
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 25%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | +16.3% | -4.0% | -10.1% | +0.1% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | -35.3% | +8.2% | +10.0% | +6.1% | +6.2% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | -165.2% | +4.0% | +1.0% | -6.1% | +18.4% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +124.6% | -6.5% | -6.9% | -10.7% | -27.0% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | -11.1% | +13.4% | +5.6% | +25.1% | +18.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | +33.8% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +8.8% | +5.1% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | -43.1% | -1.6% | -2.2% | -6.3% | -14.1% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | +15.2% | -7.2% | -5.6% | -4.8% | -17.2% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | $0.75 | $0.65 | +16.3% | $1.10B |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.22 | $0.34 | -35.3% | $1.06B |
| Feb 10, 2026 | -$2.44 | -$0.92 | -165.2% | $379.2M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $3.10 | $1.38 | +124.6% | $1.07B |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.88 | $0.99 | -11.1% | $1.31B |
| May 1, 2025 | $1.07 | $0.80 | +33.8% | $1.33B |
| Feb 5, 2025 | -$0.93 | -$0.65 | -43.1% | $687.6M |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.91 | $0.79 | +15.2% | $1.15B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 15.1× | 8.7× | 95th | Top 28% |
| P/E (forward) | 35.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.6× | — | — | Top 22% |
| EV / Sales | 0.73× | — | — | Top 27% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.15% | — | — | Bottom 12% |
| Earnings yield | 6.64% | — | — | Top 28% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 5.6× – 16.1× since Jun 27, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -13.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -15.5%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +28.0%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 90
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.7%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -7.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +5.4%
- RSI (14)
- 35.4
- Relative volume
- 0.95×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 37.0%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 49th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.87
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.40
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -13.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -60.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2021 | Mar 18, 2026 | -66.9% | 1214 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 20, 2021 | Feb 4, 2021 | -24.7% | 11 days | 50 days (Apr 19, 2021) |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Dec 21, 2020 | -14.1% | 18 days | 18 days (Jan 19, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.58B
- P/E (TTM)
- 15.1
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.63
- Revenue (TTM)
- $4.11B
- Dividend yield
- 3.02%
- 52-week range
- $17.09 – $29.22
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.34B | $5.76B | $5.84B | $5.19B | $4.47B |
| Gross profit | $1.90B | $2.13B | $2.18B | $1.81B | $1.35B |
| Operating income | $823.4M | $909.3M | $779.1M | $416.6M | $386.6M |
| Net income | $650.0M | $741.4M | $706.6M | $455.4M | $338.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.19 | $4.96 | $4.87 | $3.44 | $2.78 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.15B | $687.6M | $1.33B | $1.31B | $1.34B | $496.2M | $1.17B | $1.10B |
| Net income | $119.0M | -$116.9M | $133.1M | $107.6M | $377.4M | -$279.3M | $24.8M | $79.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.91 | -$0.93 | $1.07 | $0.88 | $3.10 | -$2.44 | $0.22 | $0.75 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $975.7M | $548.5M | $754.9M | $1.06B | $568.9M |
| Capital expenditure | -$120.2M | -$151.7M | -$207.4M | -$196.6M | -$153.7M |
| Free cash flow | $855.5M | $396.8M | $547.5M | $867.3M | $415.2M |
| Dividends paid | -$92.4M | -$93.2M | -$96.3M | -$91.2M | -$86.4M |
| Net share buybacks | -$11.6M | -$338.6M | -$364.0M | -$459.8M | -$353.3M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.90B
- Total assets
- $7.25B
- Total liabilities
- $4.13B
- Total debt
- $2.31B
- Net debt
- $411.3M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $3.10B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | $0.19 | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | $0.19 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $0.19 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | $0.18 | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | $0.18 | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | $0.18 | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | $0.18 | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | $0.17 | Dec 23, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 18,517,111
- Days to cover
- 12.09
- Change vs previous report
- +4.7%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Apr 10, 2000
- 2-for-1
- Sep 29, 1997
- 2-for-1
- Sep 13, 1994
- 2-for-1
- Jun 29, 1992
- 2-for-1
- Jun 18, 1990
- 2-for-1