Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Mattel, Inc. MAT
$15.27 +1.53% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $4.44B
Inexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 27, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count fell 11.2% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $1.34, down 13.0% year over year.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth52Neutral
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 45%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 37%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 48%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 39%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 15%
Quality57Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 41%
- Gross marginTop 25%
- Operating marginTop 42%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 48%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 43%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 48%
- Interest coverBottom 49%
Value86Strong
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 14%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 15%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 25%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 49%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 43%
Momentum49Neutral
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 34%
- 6-month returnTop 38%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 44%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 41%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 34%
Revisions6Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 14%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 13%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 46%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 8%
Stability53Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 38%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 29%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 43%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 48%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -0.2% | 2.9% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 0.6% | -13.0% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 51.4% | 47.4% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 8.5% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 9.9% | 11.4% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 2.9% | -0.2% | ↑ | Bottom 45% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -13.0% | 0.6% | ↓ | Bottom 37% |
| Gross margin | 47.4% | 51.4% | ↓ | Top 25% |
| Operating margin | 8.5% | 12.6% | ↓ | Top 42% |
| Net margin | 7.8% | 9.9% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 11.4% | 9.9% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 7.8% | — | Top 41% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -0.5% | — | Bottom 39% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.71×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +0.6 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.96×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 3.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 4.67%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.67%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -11.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -6.8%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 5 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -24.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $15.00
- Target vs current price
- -1.8%
- Analysts with a rating
- 34
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 53%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | -74.8% | -0.1% | -0.9% | +0.5% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +16.7% | +0.7% | -0.5% | +0.7% | -3.0% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | -26.4% | -2.2% | -21.8% | -25.5% | -30.0% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | -15.2% | +2.4% | +3.6% | +1.9% | +18.4% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | +18.8% | +1.6% | -12.5% | -11.2% | -10.2% |
| May 5, 2025 | +72.7% | -1.1% | +5.3% | +13.4% | +4.7% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | +75.0% | +1.6% | +19.8% | +15.0% | -10.6% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | +20.0% | -1.8% | +9.5% | +1.1% | -0.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.01 | $0.04 | -74.8% | $1.13B |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -$0.20 | -$0.24 | +16.7% | $862.2M |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $0.39 | $0.53 | -26.4% | $1.77B |
| Oct 21, 2025 | $0.89 | $1.05 | -15.2% | $1.74B |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.19 | $0.16 | +18.8% | $1.02B |
| May 5, 2025 | -$0.03 | -$0.11 | +72.7% | $826.6M |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.35 | $0.20 | +75.0% | $1.65B |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $1.14 | $0.95 | +20.0% | $1.84B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 11.4× | 13.4× | 43th | Top 14% |
| P/E (forward) | 11.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.9× | — | — | Top 25% |
| EV / Sales | 1.21× | — | — | Top 49% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.12% | — | — | Top 15% |
| Earnings yield | 8.78% | — | — | Top 14% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 7.3× – 84.7× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -11.6%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -13.0%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -4.4%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 2
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +6.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -3.9%
- RSI (14)
- 65.0
- Relative volume
- 2.99×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 47.5%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 86th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.96
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.38
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -31.1%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -42.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2022 | Sep 30, 2026 | -53.1% | 1105 days | Not yet recovered |
| Aug 10, 2021 | Oct 4, 2021 | -18.5% | 38 days | 26 days (Nov 9, 2021) |
| May 6, 2021 | Jul 19, 2021 | -15.7% | 50 days | 16 days (Aug 10, 2021) |
| Feb 16, 2022 | Apr 11, 2022 | -14.8% | 37 days | 15 days (May 3, 2022) |
| Nov 15, 2021 | Jan 25, 2022 | -14.2% | 48 days | 12 days (Feb 10, 2022) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $4.44B
- P/E (TTM)
- 11.4
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.34
- Revenue (TTM)
- $5.49B
- 52-week range
- $12.40 – $22.48
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.46B | $5.43B | $5.44B | $5.38B | $5.35B |
| Gross profit | $2.63B | $2.48B | $2.58B | $2.73B | $2.61B |
| Operating income | $729.6M | $675.5M | $561.7M | $694.3M | $620.0M |
| Net income | $903.0M | $393.9M | $214.4M | $541.8M | $397.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.53 | $1.10 | $0.60 | $1.58 | $1.24 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.84B | $1.65B | $826.6M | $1.02B | $1.74B | $1.77B | $862.2M | $1.13B |
| Net income | $372.4M | $140.9M | -$40.3M | $53.4M | $278.4M | $106.2M | $61.0M | -$18.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.09 | $0.41 | -$0.12 | $0.16 | $0.86 | $0.34 | $0.20 | -$0.06 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $485.5M | $442.8M | $869.8M | $800.6M | $593.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$151.4M | -$186.5M | -$160.3M | -$202.6M | -$182.0M |
| Free cash flow | $334.1M | $256.3M | $709.5M | $597.9M | $411.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $12.1M | $27.8M | -$203.0M | -$400.0M | -$590.2M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $523.9M
- Total assets
- $6.36B
- Total liabilities
- $4.36B
- Total debt
- $2.75B
- Net debt
- $2.22B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.00B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2017 | $0.15 | Sep 15, 2017 |
| May 17, 2017 | $0.38 | Jun 9, 2017 |
| Feb 14, 2017 | $0.38 | Mar 3, 2017 |
| Nov 18, 2016 | $0.38 | Dec 9, 2016 |
| Aug 19, 2016 | $0.38 | Sep 16, 2016 |
| May 17, 2016 | $0.38 | Jun 10, 2016 |
| Feb 12, 2016 | $0.38 | Mar 4, 2016 |
| Nov 23, 2015 | $0.38 | Dec 11, 2015 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 26,493,895
- Days to cover
- 7.47
- Change vs previous report
- +1.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Mar 4, 1996
- 5-for-4
- Jan 23, 1995
- 5-for-4
- Jan 10, 1994
- 5-for-4
- Jun 3, 1992
- 3-for-2
- Nov 18, 1991
- 5-for-4