Stocks · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Moderna, Inc. MRNA
$190.01 +0.57% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $75.39B
Strong trend
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -149.0% from -107.0% a year earlier.
- Over the past year the stock returned +588.4%, ahead of the S&P 500 by 573.4 percentage points.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 11 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +29.1%).
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Healthcare sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 14%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 2%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 28%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 34%
- Gross marginBottom 8%
- Operating marginBottom 26%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 15%
- Interest coverBottom 11%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 41%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 41%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 49%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 15%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 2%
- 6-month returnTop 1%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 1%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 14%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 7%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 18%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 5%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 3%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 1%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 1%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 22%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 33%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -29.1% | -27.2% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 52.2% | -12.6% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -107.0% | -149.0% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -114.4% | -54.9% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -27.2% | -29.1% | ↑ | Bottom 14% |
| Gross margin | -12.6% | 52.2% | ↓ | Bottom 8% |
| Operating margin | -149.0% | -107.0% | ↓ | Bottom 26% |
| Net margin | -141.4% | -94.9% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -54.9% | -114.4% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -39.2% | — | Bottom 34% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -53.1% | — | Bottom 2% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -19.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 15.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -50.3 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -132.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.08%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.08%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +2.1%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +1.3%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 31, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 11
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +29.1%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $115.70
- Target vs current price
- -39.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 29
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 28%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | +3.0% | -5.4% | -7.0% | +146.5% | — |
| May 1, 2026 | +23.6% | -1.2% | +5.7% | +2.7% | +21.5% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | +16.9% | +5.3% | +24.3% | +31.0% | +31.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | +72.7% | +3.3% | +13.4% | +8.2% | +79.1% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | +28.8% | -6.6% | -10.0% | -17.2% | -9.5% |
| May 1, 2025 | +13.7% | -5.3% | -15.7% | -5.6% | +18.8% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | +6.7% | +3.4% | +11.3% | +8.5% | -19.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | +101.6% | -3.0% | -18.7% | -17.1% | -32.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | -$1.97 | -$2.03 | +3.0% | $145.0M |
| May 1, 2026 | -$3.40 | -$4.45 | +23.6% | $389.0M |
| Feb 13, 2026 | -$2.11 | -$2.54 | +16.9% | $678.0M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -$0.51 | -$1.87 | +72.7% | $1.02B |
| Aug 1, 2025 | -$2.13 | -$2.99 | +28.8% | $142.0M |
| May 1, 2025 | -$2.52 | -$2.92 | +13.7% | $107.0M |
| Feb 14, 2025 | -$2.50 | -$2.68 | +6.7% | $956.0M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.03 | -$1.91 | +101.6% | $1.85B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 33.64× | — | — | Bottom 15% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.62% | — | — | Top 41% |
| Earnings yield | -4.20% | — | — | Top 41% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 4.6× – 51.9× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 39
- Days above the 200-day average
- 207
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +47.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +26.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +53.7%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +177.8%
- RSI (14)
- 66.2
- Relative volume
- 0.70×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 229.2%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 98th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.83
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.11
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -6.6%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -86.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2021 | Nov 20, 2025 | -95.4% | 1077 days | Not yet recovered |
| Dec 8, 2020 | Dec 31, 2020 | -38.5% | 16 days | 19 days (Jan 29, 2021) |
| Feb 8, 2021 | Mar 30, 2021 | -36.3% | 35 days | 23 days (May 3, 2021) |
| May 3, 2021 | May 13, 2021 | -19.4% | 8 days | 13 days (Jun 2, 2021) |
| Oct 13, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -16.0% | 11 days | 10 days (Nov 11, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $75.39B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$7.98
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.23B
- 52-week range
- $22.28 – $208.90
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.74B | $18.88B | $6.85B | $3.20B | $1.94B |
| Gross profit | $15.12B | $13.46B | $2.15B | $1.74B | $1.08B |
| Operating income | $13.30B | $9.42B | -$4.24B | -$3.94B | -$3.07B |
| Net income | $12.20B | $8.36B | -$4.71B | -$3.56B | -$2.82B |
| EPS (diluted) | $28.29 | $20.10 | -$12.34 | -$9.27 | -$7.26 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.85B | $956.0M | $107.0M | $142.0M | $1.02B | $678.0M | $389.0M | $145.0M |
| Net income | $13.0M | -$1.12B | -$971.0M | -$825.0M | -$200.0M | -$826.0M | -$1.34B | -$782.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.03 | -$2.91 | -$2.52 | -$2.13 | -$0.51 | -$2.11 | -$3.40 | -$1.96 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $13.62B | $4.98B | -$3.12B | -$3.00B | -$1.87B |
| Capital expenditure | -$284.0M | -$400.0M | -$707.0M | -$1.05B | -$192.0M |
| Free cash flow | $13.34B | $4.58B | -$3.83B | -$4.05B | -$2.06B |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$733.0M | -$3.26B | -$1.11B | $66.0M | $35.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $5.14B
- Total assets
- $10.96B
- Total liabilities
- $4.20B
- Total debt
- $1.29B
- Net debt
- -$436.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $6.76B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 31, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 32,872,787
- Days to cover
- 2.53
- Change vs previous report
- -16.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.