Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Meritage Homes Corporation MTH
$63.85 -0.81% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $4.26B
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 13.4× trailing earnings, higher than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $4.78, down 45.4% year over year.
- The diluted share count fell 7.1% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth5Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 7%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 22%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 29%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 24%
Quality38Weak
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 45%
- Gross marginBottom 18%
- Operating marginTop 43%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 30%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 18%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 39%
- Interest coverTop 6%
Value64Neutral
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 20%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 27%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 35%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 40%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 7%
Momentum41Weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 42%
- 6-month returnTop 45%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 41%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 45%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Revisions16Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 25%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 33%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 38%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 39%
Stability79Positive
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 34%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 33%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 17%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 39%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -10.6% | -12.3% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -44.8% | -45.4% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 22.9% | 18.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 8.4% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -4.0% | 7.6% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -12.3% | -10.6% | ↓ | Bottom 7% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -45.4% | -44.8% | ↓ | Bottom 22% |
| Gross margin | 18.9% | 22.9% | ↓ | Bottom 18% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 12.5% | ↓ | Top 43% |
| Net margin | 6.0% | 10.3% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.6% | -4.0% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 5.1% | — | Bottom 45% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -2.4% | — | Bottom 29% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.33×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -1.4%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +24.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.06×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 164.3×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 2.89%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 10.21%
- Shareholder yield
- 13.10%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -7.1%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -3.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 31, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -2.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $79.50
- Target vs current price
- +24.5%
- Analysts with a rating
- 38
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 45%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | +10.1% | -2.2% | +1.8% | +0.3% | — |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -11.9% | -1.1% | -0.2% | -12.4% | +6.7% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | +7.7% | -0.6% | +4.6% | +7.2% | +0.5% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | -14.7% | -0.5% | -7.9% | -1.9% | +0.8% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | +2.5% | -0.8% | -7.8% | +2.5% | -7.6% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | -1.2% | +0.1% | -1.8% | -2.4% | +2.6% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | +8.1% | -2.5% | -4.3% | -7.5% | -14.8% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | -46.3% | -2.1% | +0.6% | +6.2% | -10.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $1.42 | $1.29 | +10.1% | $1.40B |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $0.86 | $0.98 | -11.9% | $1.12B |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $1.67 | $1.55 | +7.7% | $1.43B |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $1.39 | $1.63 | -14.7% | $1.42B |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $2.04 | $1.99 | +2.5% | $1.63B |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $1.69 | $1.71 | -1.2% | $1.37B |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $2.39 | $2.21 | +8.1% | $1.61B |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $2.67 | $4.97 | -46.3% | $1.59B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 13.4× | 6.9× | 95th | Top 20% |
| P/E (forward) | 12.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.5× | — | — | Top 35% |
| EV / Sales | 0.97× | — | — | Top 40% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.74% | — | — | Top 27% |
| Earnings yield | 7.49% | — | — | Top 20% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 3.0× – 14.7× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -13.2%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -45.4%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +84.5%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -6.9%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.9%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -7.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -8.4%
- RSI (14)
- 43.1
- Relative volume
- 0.64×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 35.9%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 33th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.63
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.26
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -25.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -45.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2021 | Jun 21, 2022 | -46.8% | 117 days | 206 days (Apr 17, 2023) |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Mar 20, 2026 | -45.0% | 375 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 2, 2020 | Jan 8, 2021 | -30.3% | 67 days | 82 days (May 7, 2021) |
| Jul 28, 2023 | Oct 25, 2023 | -27.0% | 62 days | 29 days (Dec 6, 2023) |
| May 10, 2021 | Jul 19, 2021 | -25.3% | 48 days | 86 days (Nov 17, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $4.26B
- P/E (TTM)
- 13.4
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $4.78
- Revenue (TTM)
- $5.45B
- Dividend yield
- 2.93%
- 52-week range
- $58.03 – $85.38
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.14B | $6.29B | $6.14B | $6.40B | $5.86B |
| Gross profit | $1.44B | $1.80B | $1.52B | $1.60B | $1.15B |
| Operating income | $970.6M | $1.29B | $902.4M | $958.3M | $537.5M |
| Net income | $737.4M | $992.2M | $738.7M | $786.2M | $453.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.65 | $13.37 | $9.97 | $10.72 | $6.40 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.60B | $1.62B | $1.36B | $1.63B | $1.42B | $1.44B | $1.12B | $1.47B |
| Net income | $196.0M | $172.6M | $122.8M | $146.9M | $99.3M | $84.0M | $55.3M | $90.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.67 | $2.36 | $1.69 | $2.04 | $1.39 | $1.20 | $0.82 | $1.37 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$152.1M | $405.3M | $355.6M | -$227.6M | $118.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$25.7M | -$27.0M | -$38.2M | -$28.7M | -$25.7M |
| Free cash flow | -$177.8M | $378.3M | $317.4M | -$256.2M | $92.6M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | -$39.5M | -$108.6M | -$121.1M |
| Net share buybacks | -$61.0M | -$109.3M | -$59.1M | -$125.9M | -$295.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $807.3M
- Total assets
- $7.55B
- Total liabilities
- $2.50B
- Total debt
- $1.85B
- Net debt
- $1.04B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $5.06B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 31, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | $0.48 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | $0.48 | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | $0.48 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | $0.43 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | $0.43 | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | $0.43 | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | $0.43 | Mar 31, 2025 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | $0.75 | Dec 31, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 4,574,822
- Days to cover
- 5.91
- Change vs previous report
- +3.3%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jan 3, 2025
- 2-for-1
- Jan 10, 2005
- 2-for-1
- Apr 29, 2002
- 2-for-1
- Jan 2, 1997
- 1-for-3