Stocks · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. NREF
$15.81 +0.38% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $298.0M
Strong trendExpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 29, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin widened to 112.9% from 68.3% a year earlier.
- The diluted share count rose 36.8% in a year.
- Net debt is 27.3× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Real Estate sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 8%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 50%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 14%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 4%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 8%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 36%
- Gross marginTop 7%
- Operating marginTop 1%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 11%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 9%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 11%
- Interest coverTop 11%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 6%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 28%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 20%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 2%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 34%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 16%
- 6-month returnTop 13%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 19%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 20%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 19%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 40%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 32%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 23%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 5%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 25%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 29%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 50%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 11%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 11.0% | -16.5% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 29.6% | 9.4% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 78.1% | 86.4% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 68.3% | 112.9% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 23.9% | 5.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -16.5% | 11.0% | ↓ | Bottom 8% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 9.4% | 29.6% | ↓ | Top 50% |
| Gross margin | 86.4% | 78.1% | ↑ | Top 7% |
| Operating margin | 112.9% | 68.3% | ↑ | Top 1% |
| Net margin | 75.0% | 45.2% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.2% | 23.9% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 2.8% | — | Bottom 36% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 46.2% | — | Top 4% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.07×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 1.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 4.6%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +10.1 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 27.32×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 3.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 13.62%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -32.03%
- Shareholder yield
- -18.41%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +36.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +32.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 2
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 5 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +10.6%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.9%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $16.00
- Target vs current price
- +1.2%
- Analysts with a rating
- 6
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 33%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +16.0% | +4.0% | -0.7% | +3.8% | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +4.9% | +0.6% | +8.2% | +8.8% | +17.6% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +1.7% | -8.5% | +5.2% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | +21.4% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +8.7% | +9.3% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | +0.0% | -3.8% | -3.3% | +5.1% | -6.8% |
| May 1, 2025 | -10.9% | -2.3% | -1.5% | +1.4% | -1.2% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | +6.4% | +1.2% | -0.9% | -3.8% | -8.0% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | +53.1% | +6.5% | +11.3% | +25.1% | +7.3% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.46 | $0.40 | +16.0% | $34.3M |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $0.43 | $0.41 | +4.9% | $33.8M |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.48 | $0.48 | +0.0% | $33.7M |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.51 | $0.42 | +21.4% | $69.6M |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.43 | $0.43 | +0.0% | $31.4M |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.41 | $0.46 | -10.9% | $30.5M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.83 | $0.78 | +6.4% | $37.9M |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $0.75 | $0.49 | +53.1% | $34.3M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 6.8× | 6.7× | 53th | Top 6% |
| P/E (forward) | 9.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 29.2× | — | — | Bottom 20% |
| EV / Sales | 34.52× | — | — | Bottom 2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.32% | — | — | Bottom 28% |
| Earnings yield | 14.74% | — | — | Top 6% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 1.6× – 33.6× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +12.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +9.4%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +8.9%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 111
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.5%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -6.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +3.5%
- RSI (14)
- 41.4
- Relative volume
- 0.79×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 31.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 43th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.58
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.30
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -13.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -28.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2022 | Apr 25, 2023 | -50.9% | 235 days | Not yet recovered |
| Aug 13, 2021 | Dec 20, 2021 | -20.5% | 89 days | 82 days (Apr 19, 2022) |
| Dec 4, 2020 | Dec 30, 2020 | -19.1% | 17 days | 67 days (Apr 8, 2021) |
| Sep 28, 2020 | Oct 26, 2020 | -13.9% | 20 days | 21 days (Nov 24, 2020) |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Jul 22, 2021 | -11.1% | 28 days | 10 days (Aug 5, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $298.0M
- P/E (TTM)
- 6.8
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.33
- Revenue (TTM)
- $134.3M
- Dividend yield
- 12.65%
- 52-week range
- $12.36 – $18.43
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.8M | $40.4M | $42.1M | $110.3M | $126.1M |
| Gross profit | $34.8M | $36.0M | $37.9M | $99.3M | $112.1M |
| Operating income | $83.5M | $25.6M | $25.4M | $84.8M | $163.6M |
| Net income | $43.1M | $6.7M | $14.0M | $29.2M | $105.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.93 | $0.22 | $0.60 | $1.02 | $2.85 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.3M | $37.9M | $41.0M | $47.6M | $32.5M | $33.7M | $33.8M | $34.3M |
| Net income | $19.4M | $12.7M | $21.8M | $18.8M | $43.1M | $21.4M | $20.3M | $16.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.64 | $0.25 | $0.70 | $0.54 | $1.14 | $0.48 | $0.42 | $0.29 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $49.3M | $65.8M | $31.6M | $29.3M | $22.9M |
| Capital expenditure | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Free cash flow | $49.3M | $65.8M | $31.6M | $29.3M | $22.9M |
| Dividends paid | -$14.2M | -$29.7M | -$48.0M | -$34.8M | -$61.7M |
| Net share buybacks | $83.3M | $168.0M | $7.8M | $140.4M | -$1.6M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $138.2M
- Total assets
- $5.37B
- Total liabilities
- $4.51B
- Total debt
- $4.48B
- Net debt
- $4.34B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $379.6M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | $0.50 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | $0.50 | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $0.50 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | $0.50 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | $0.50 | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | $0.50 | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | $0.50 | Mar 31, 2025 |
| Dec 13, 2024 | $0.50 | Dec 31, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 502,946
- Days to cover
- 7.20
- Change vs previous report
- +36.4%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.