Stocks · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Novavax, Inc. NVAX
$10.46 -1.32% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.72B
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $-1.52, down 167.3% year over year.
- Operating margin narrowed to -54.9% from 33.0% a year earlier.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $413.8M, down 61.6% from a year earlier, slowing from -52.5% a quarter earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Healthcare sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 9%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 13%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 10%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 18%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 37%
- Gross marginTop 33%
- Operating marginBottom 34%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 12%
- Interest coverBottom 28%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 39%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 44%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 38%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 50%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 41%
- 6-month returnTop 28%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 48%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 20%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 7%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 13%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 25%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 45%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 46%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 39%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 43%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 30%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -52.5% | -61.6% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -122.6% | -167.3% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 88.4% | 77.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 33.0% | -54.9% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -59.1% | -10.5% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -61.6% | -52.5% | ↓ | Bottom 9% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -167.3% | -122.6% | ↓ | Bottom 13% |
| Gross margin | 77.9% | 88.4% | ↓ | Top 33% |
| Operating margin | -54.9% | 33.0% | ↓ | Bottom 34% |
| Net margin | -59.9% | 39.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -10.5% | -59.1% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -36.1% | — | Bottom 37% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -11.1% | — | Bottom 10% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -21.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 7.8%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -30.1 pp
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -18.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.03%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.03%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -7.1%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +16.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 3
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 7 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +48.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +5.9%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $18.00
- Target vs current price
- +72.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 23
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 74%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +15.8% | +0.5% | +3.4% | +34.0% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +76.0% | +15.6% | +18.8% | +25.9% | -9.6% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | +116.7% | +17.4% | +3.8% | -2.0% | -5.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -15.7% | -1.3% | -6.4% | -10.8% | +8.8% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +985.7% | +12.6% | +26.0% | +10.0% | +24.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | +312.7% | +11.9% | +0.2% | +17.5% | +13.4% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | +32.0% | -3.6% | +7.8% | +1.0% | -0.4% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | +12.6% | -6.1% | -13.1% | -2.7% | -9.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | -$0.32 | -$0.38 | +15.8% | $56.7M |
| May 6, 2026 | -$0.06 | -$0.25 | +76.0% | $139.5M |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.11 | -$0.66 | +116.7% | $147.1M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -$1.25 | -$1.08 | -15.7% | $70.4M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.62 | -$0.07 | +985.7% | $239.2M |
| May 8, 2025 | $2.93 | $0.71 | +312.7% | $666.7M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -$0.51 | -$0.75 | +32.0% | $88.3M |
| Nov 12, 2024 | -$0.76 | -$0.87 | +12.6% | $84.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 4.41× | — | — | Top 50% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -2.53% | — | — | Top 44% |
| Earnings yield | -14.53% | — | — | Bottom 39% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 2.5× – 4.7× since Mar 31, 2025. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 30
- Days above the 200-day average
- 30
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +6.5%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +4.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +15.0%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +17.7%
- RSI (14)
- 58.6
- Relative volume
- 0.76×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 49.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 2th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.54
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.37
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -6.5%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -74.1%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2021 | Feb 5, 2024 | -98.8% | 752 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 13, 2020 | Nov 10, 2020 | -32.9% | 20 days | 12 days (Nov 27, 2020) |
| Nov 30, 2020 | Dec 31, 2020 | -20.1% | 22 days | 19 days (Jan 29, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.72B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$1.52
- Revenue (TTM)
- $413.8M
- 52-week range
- $6.20 – $11.97
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $197.6M | $1.60B | $556.4M | $682.2M | $1.12B |
| Gross profit | $197.6M | $696.3M | $212.6M | $479.4M | $1.05B |
| Operating income | -$1.69B | -$644.7M | -$566.5M | -$248.9M | $563.3M |
| Net income | -$1.74B | -$657.9M | -$545.1M | -$187.5M | $440.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$23.44 | -$8.42 | -$5.41 | -$1.23 | $2.54 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $84.5M | $88.3M | $666.7M | $239.2M | $70.4M | $147.1M | $139.5M | $56.7M |
| Net income | -$121.3M | -$81.0M | $518.6M | $106.5M | -$202.4M | $17.5M | -$9.5M | -$53.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.76 | -$0.51 | $2.93 | $0.60 | -$1.25 | $0.11 | -$0.06 | -$0.32 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $322.9M | -$415.9M | -$714.0M | -$87.3M | -$244.6M |
| Capital expenditure | -$57.5M | -$93.0M | -$58.8M | -$13.1M | -$5.6M |
| Free cash flow | $265.5M | -$508.9M | -$772.8M | -$100.3M | -$250.2M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $564.9M | $249.2M | $360.2M | $263.3M | -$4.8M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $719.3M
- Total assets
- $955.6M
- Total liabilities
- $1.15B
- Total debt
- $295.6M
- Net debt
- $104.1M
- Shareholders’ equity
- -$190.7M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 49,875,210
- Days to cover
- 9.28
- Change vs previous report
- +2.2%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- May 10, 2019
- 1-for-20