Stocks · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. REFI
$10.06 +1.31% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $214.4M
Inexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin widened to 41.4% from 0.0% a year earlier.
- The shares trade at 7.3× trailing earnings, lower than 89% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Net debt is 5.1× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Real Estate sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 46%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 32%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 36%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 34%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 24%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 41%
- Gross marginTop 5%
- Operating marginTop 25%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 24%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 14%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 41%
- Interest coverTop 18%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 8%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 18%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 35%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 26%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 28%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 25%
- 6-month returnBottom 36%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 29%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 37%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 22%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 43%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 18%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 5%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 12%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 43%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 39%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 45%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 41%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 9.0% | 7.4% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -23.4% | -25.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | 91.3% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 0.0% | 41.4% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 43.1% | 44.8% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 7.4% | 9.0% | ↓ | Top 46% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -25.1% | -23.4% | ↓ | Bottom 32% |
| Gross margin | 91.3% | 100.0% | ↓ | Top 5% |
| Operating margin | 41.4% | 0.0% | ↑ | Top 25% |
| Net margin | 48.9% | 68.0% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 44.8% | 43.1% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 4.9% | — | Top 41% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 8.9% | — | Top 34% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.92×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 0.5%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- -2103.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -106.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 5.11×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 3.2×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 18.95%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.04%
- Shareholder yield
- 18.99%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +1.1%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +5.9%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 11, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -1.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $16.00
- Target vs current price
- +59.0%
- Analysts with a rating
- 7
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 86%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | -10.4% | -0.1% | +0.3% | +5.8% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | -4.2% | -5.1% | -7.4% | -7.8% | -19.2% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | +2.4% | -0.5% | +1.9% | -5.5% | -7.2% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +6.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -4.5% | -5.2% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +13.3% | +2.7% | +8.5% | +8.5% | -2.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | +2.2% | +0.4% | +3.1% | -1.6% | -11.6% |
| Mar 12, 2025 | +7.0% | -3.5% | -2.3% | -15.4% | -10.0% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | +16.7% | +1.2% | -0.3% | +4.0% | -0.8% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | $0.43 | $0.48 | -10.4% | $12.8M |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.46 | $0.48 | -4.2% | $13.1M |
| Mar 12, 2026 | $0.43 | $0.42 | +2.4% | $14.2M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.49 | $0.46 | +6.5% | $13.7M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.51 | $0.45 | +13.3% | $16.5M |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.46 | $0.45 | +2.2% | $13.0M |
| Mar 12, 2025 | $0.46 | $0.43 | +7.0% | $13.9M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.56 | $0.48 | +16.7% | $14.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 7.3× | 7.7× | 11th | Top 8% |
| P/E (forward) | 5.3× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.7× | — | — | Top 35% |
| EV / Sales | 5.68× | — | — | Top 26% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.56% | — | — | Top 18% |
| Earnings yield | 13.62% | — | — | Top 8% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 7.1× – 16.4× since Mar 31, 2022. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -20.1%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -25.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +0.5%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -4.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -12.2%
- RSI (14)
- 34.0
- Relative volume
- 0.52×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 22.4%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 43th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.55
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.36
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -25.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -44.1%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2022 | Jul 31, 2026 | -51.7% | 1109 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $214.4M
- P/E (TTM)
- 7.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.37
- Revenue (TTM)
- $60.1M
- Dividend yield
- 18.69%
- 52-week range
- $9.69 – $13.49
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.5M | $48.9M | $57.3M | $54.8M | $63.1M |
| Gross profit | $14.2M | $48.9M | $57.3M | $54.8M | $54.8M |
| Operating income | $12.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $36.0M |
| Net income | $12.7M | $32.3M | $38.7M | $37.0M | $36.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.54 | $1.82 | $2.11 | $1.88 | $1.68 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.5M | $13.9M | $13.0M | $14.6M | $13.7M | $16.1M | $15.2M | $15.2M |
| Net income | $11.2M | $7.9M | $10.0M | $8.9M | $8.9M | $8.2M | $4.8M | $7.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.56 | $0.39 | $0.47 | $0.41 | $0.42 | $0.38 | $0.23 | $0.34 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $6.7M | $17.0M | $28.4M | $23.2M | $28.8M |
| Capital expenditure | $3 | $5 | $0 | $4 | $0 |
| Free cash flow | $6.7M | $17.0M | $28.4M | $23.2M | $28.8M |
| Dividends paid | -$6.8M | -$28.2M | -$39.1M | -$41.6M | -$43.8M |
| Net share buybacks | $223.9M | $4.5M | $7.2M | $39.6M | $1.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $13.4M
- Total assets
- $461.7M
- Total liabilities
- $160.1M
- Total debt
- $140.5M
- Net debt
- $127.2M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $301.6M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 11, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | $0.47 | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | $0.47 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $0.47 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $0.47 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $0.47 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $0.47 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $0.47 | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Dec 31, 2024 | $0.65 | Jan 13, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,376,806
- Days to cover
- 8.00
- Change vs previous report
- +5.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.