Stocks · Healthcare · Medical - Diagnostics & Research
Sera Prognostics, Inc. SERA
$2.09 +2.45% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $79.8M
Expensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 12, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -53282.9% from -34125.0% a year earlier.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $70,000, down 35.2% from a year earlier, accelerating from -50.4% a quarter earlier.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Healthcare sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 13%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 5%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 10%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 21%
- Gross marginBottom 5%
- Operating marginBottom 2%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 49%
- Interest coverBottom 2%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 22%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 14%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 16%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 3%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 16%
- 6-month returnBottom 46%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 22%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 32%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 39%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 41%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 20%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 45%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 21%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 47%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 21%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 34%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -50.4% | -35.2% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | -16.7% | -150.0% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -34125.0% | -53282.9% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -24950.9% | -40211.4% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -35.2% | -50.4% | ↑ | Bottom 13% |
| Gross margin | -150.0% | -16.7% | ↓ | Bottom 5% |
| Operating margin | -53282.9% | -34125.0% | ↓ | Bottom 2% |
| Net margin | -47475.7% | -30306.5% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -40211.4% | -24950.9% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -59.8% | — | Bottom 21% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -32.9% | — | Bottom 5% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -6.4%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 5615.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -6.0 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -5328.3×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.32%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.32%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +2.9%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +17.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 12, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -0.3%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $6.00
- Target vs current price
- +187.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 5
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 80%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | -16.7% | +1.5% | -3.0% | +0.5% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | -6.3% | -3.7% | -10.1% | +9.0% | +8.5% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | +5.9% | -5.0% | +1.0% | +8.5% | -4.0% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | +15.8% | -5.4% | +2.6% | +9.0% | -15.1% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +23.8% | +12.2% | -9.0% | +38.8% | +42.4% |
| May 7, 2025 | +16.7% | -4.8% | -6.7% | -32.5% | +7.1% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | -8.7% | +1.5% | -0.7% | -19.1% | -56.4% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | -9.1% | +14.2% | -5.4% | -16.9% | -35.2% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | -$0.18 | -$0.15 | -16.7% | $30,000 |
| May 6, 2026 | -$0.17 | -$0.16 | -6.3% | $14,000 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -$0.16 | -$0.17 | +5.9% | $10,000 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -$0.16 | -$0.19 | +15.8% | $16,000 |
| Aug 6, 2025 | -$0.16 | -$0.21 | +23.8% | $17,000 |
| May 7, 2025 | -$0.20 | -$0.24 | +16.7% | $38,000 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | -$0.25 | -$0.23 | -8.7% | $24,000 |
| Nov 6, 2024 | -$0.24 | -$0.22 | -9.1% | $29,000 |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 1120.32× | — | — | Bottom 3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -35.26% | — | — | Bottom 14% |
| Earnings yield | -32.06% | — | — | Bottom 22% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 1
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.9%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +2.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -7.8%
- RSI (14)
- 53.3
- Relative volume
- 0.97×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 53.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 3th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.42
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.19
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -44.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -87.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2021 | Dec 28, 2022 | -91.1% | 350 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jul 15, 2021 | Jul 27, 2021 | -23.1% | 8 days | 4 days (Aug 2, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $79.8M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$0.67
- Revenue (TTM)
- $70,000
- 52-week range
- $1.56 – $3.95
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $82,000 | $268,000 | $306,000 | $77,000 | $81,000 |
| Gross profit | $45,000 | $75,000 | $96,000 | -$5,000 | -$83,000 |
| Operating income | -$35.4M | -$45.7M | -$39.8M | -$36.6M | -$36.5M |
| Net income | -$35.0M | -$44.2M | -$36.2M | -$32.9M | -$31.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.18 | -$1.43 | -$1.16 | -$0.99 | -$0.67 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29,000 | $24,000 | $38,000 | $17,000 | $16,000 | $10,000 | $14,000 | $30,000 |
| Net income | -$7.9M | -$8.6M | -$8.2M | -$8.0M | -$7.8M | -$7.9M | -$8.4M | -$9.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.24 | -$0.25 | -$0.20 | -$0.16 | -$0.16 | -$0.16 | -$0.17 | -$0.18 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$31.6M | -$34.6M | -$27.2M | -$14.2M | -$25.6M |
| Capital expenditure | -$1.3M | -$791,000 | -$128,000 | -$1.1M | -$726,000 |
| Free cash flow | -$32.9M | -$35.4M | -$27.3M | -$15.3M | -$26.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $66.6M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $54.2M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $46.4M
- Total assets
- $86.7M
- Total liabilities
- $27.4M
- Total debt
- $3.0M
- Net debt
- -$1.4M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $59.4M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 12, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 213,893
- Days to cover
- 7.55
- Change vs previous report
- -3.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.