Stocks · Healthcare · Medical - Devices
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. TMCI
$4.39 +1.39% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $284.8M
High risk
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 8 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +14.3%).
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 81 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
- Over the past year the stock returned -30.5%, behind the S&P 500 by 45.6 percentage points.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Healthcare sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 24%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 41%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 35%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 35%
- Gross marginTop 31%
- Operating marginBottom 40%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 9%
- Interest coverBottom 34%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 31%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 40%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 35%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 21%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 20%
- 6-month returnTop 2%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 22%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 42%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 39%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 31%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 8%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 2%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 38%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 44%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 10%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 5%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -1.7% | -4.0% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 80.1% | 79.5% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -22.4% | -26.2% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -13.6% | -12.2% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -4.0% | -1.7% | ↓ | Bottom 24% |
| Gross margin | 79.5% | 80.1% | ↓ | Top 31% |
| Operating margin | -26.2% | -22.4% | ↓ | Bottom 40% |
| Net margin | -29.0% | -23.0% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -12.2% | -13.6% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -37.5% | — | Bottom 35% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 14.5% | — | Top 41% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -24.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 10.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -0.3 pp
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -9.2×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.14%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.14%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +3.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +2.0%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 8
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +14.3%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $8.60
- Target vs current price
- +95.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 9
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 22%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | +19.5% | +8.7% | +3.0% | +11.4% | — |
| May 8, 2026 | +9.7% | +4.7% | +44.3% | +82.8% | +146.9% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | +21.0% | -11.4% | -33.8% | -39.0% | +32.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | +7.1% | -0.3% | -46.7% | -56.2% | -66.6% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +3.4% | +3.8% | +26.1% | +31.1% | +16.1% |
| May 8, 2025 | +19.4% | +4.7% | -6.7% | -19.9% | -22.1% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | +75.0% | -5.9% | -5.9% | -11.5% | -37.1% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | +7.4% | +6.1% | +52.7% | +57.5% | +78.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | -$0.24 | -$0.30 | +19.5% | $45.4M |
| May 8, 2026 | -$0.28 | -$0.31 | +9.7% | $47.2M |
| Feb 27, 2026 | -$0.12 | -$0.15 | +21.0% | $62.5M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -$0.26 | -$0.28 | +7.1% | $50.2M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | -$0.28 | -$0.29 | +3.4% | $47.4M |
| May 8, 2025 | -$0.25 | -$0.31 | +19.4% | $52.6M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -$0.01 | -$0.04 | +75.0% | $68.7M |
| Nov 5, 2024 | -$0.25 | -$0.27 | +7.4% | $45.1M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 1.68× | — | — | Top 21% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -8.80% | — | — | Bottom 40% |
| Earnings yield | -21.18% | — | — | Bottom 31% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 81
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.8%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +5.9%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -3.1%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +42.7%
- RSI (14)
- 45.1
- Relative volume
- 0.70×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 58.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 35th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 2.59
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.45
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -36.8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -92.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2021 | Mar 30, 2026 | -96.7% | 1204 days | Not yet recovered |
| May 11, 2021 | May 13, 2021 | -18.0% | 2 days | 12 days (Jun 1, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $284.8M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$0.93
- Revenue (TTM)
- $205.3M
- 52-week range
- $1.17 – $7.08
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.4M | $141.8M | $187.1M | $209.4M | $212.7M |
| Gross profit | $77.5M | $114.3M | $151.9M | $168.3M | $169.8M |
| Operating income | -$16.5M | -$34.8M | -$51.4M | -$55.7M | -$54.2M |
| Net income | -$20.6M | -$42.8M | -$49.5M | -$55.7M | -$59.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.38 | -$0.77 | -$0.81 | -$0.90 | -$0.93 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.1M | $68.7M | $52.6M | $47.4M | $50.2M | $62.5M | $47.2M | $45.4M |
| Net income | -$15.4M | -$501,000 | -$15.9M | -$17.4M | -$16.3M | -$9.4M | -$18.0M | -$15.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.25 | -$0.01 | -$0.25 | -$0.28 | -$0.26 | -$0.15 | -$0.28 | -$0.24 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$17.2M | -$30.6M | -$34.6M | -$37.2M | -$16.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$2.7M | -$14.8M | -$11.5M | -$11.6M | -$13.5M |
| Free cash flow | -$19.9M | -$45.5M | -$46.0M | -$48.8M | -$29.5M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $109.4M | $2.2M | $109.4M | $428,000 | $546,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $45.6M
- Total assets
- $181.1M
- Total liabilities
- $113.3M
- Total debt
- $72.7M
- Net debt
- $60.1M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $67.7M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,736,595
- Days to cover
- 8.46
- Change vs previous report
- +11.3%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.