Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL
$136.61 +0.18% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $12.77B
Low risk
Next earnings report: Dec 14, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 11.0× trailing earnings, higher than 86% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
- The diluted share count fell 4.9% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth23Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 27%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 41%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 48%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 50%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 9%
Quality39Weak
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 32%
- Gross marginBottom 30%
- Operating marginTop 21%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 16%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 12%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 27%
Value68Positive
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 12%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 32%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 23%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 47%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 18%
Momentum56Neutral
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 45%
- 6-month returnBottom 50%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 45%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 32%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 47%
Revisions37Weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 32%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 38%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 49%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 35%
Stability80Strong
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 18%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 36%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 41%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 27%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 3.6% | -1.1% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -1.9% | -8.5% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 25.8% | 24.2% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 16.3% | 13.8% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 8.4% | 10.1% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -1.1% | 3.6% | ↓ | Bottom 27% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -8.5% | -1.9% | ↓ | Bottom 41% |
| Gross margin | 24.2% | 25.8% | ↓ | Bottom 30% |
| Operating margin | 13.8% | 16.3% | ↓ | Top 21% |
| Net margin | 11.1% | 12.6% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 10.1% | 8.4% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 9.8% | — | Top 32% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 2.2% | — | Bottom 50% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.99×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 0.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -0.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 1.11×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.76%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 5.57%
- Shareholder yield
- 6.34%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -4.9%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -4.9%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jul 31, 2026 (filed Aug 28, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 3
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +1.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $165.43
- Target vs current price
- +21.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 46
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 50%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | +1.4% | -1.8% | +1.4% | -7.7% | — |
| May 19, 2026 | +5.4% | -2.2% | +8.6% | +20.7% | +17.6% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | +6.8% | -1.4% | -4.6% | -14.4% | -19.1% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | -6.1% | -2.0% | +0.2% | -2.1% | +7.7% |
| Aug 19, 2025 | +3.6% | +0.8% | +5.7% | +7.7% | +3.4% |
| May 20, 2025 | +24.6% | -1.5% | +1.8% | -1.1% | +23.5% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | -12.1% | -1.3% | -10.6% | -14.2% | -11.5% |
| Dec 9, 2024 | +6.7% | +1.5% | -13.1% | -19.6% | -29.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | $2.97 | $2.93 | +1.4% | $2.66B |
| May 19, 2026 | $2.72 | $2.58 | +5.4% | $2.53B |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $2.19 | $2.05 | +6.8% | $2.15B |
| Dec 8, 2025 | $4.58 | $4.88 | -6.1% | $3.42B |
| Aug 19, 2025 | $3.73 | $3.60 | +3.6% | $2.95B |
| May 20, 2025 | $3.50 | $2.81 | +24.6% | $2.74B |
| Feb 18, 2025 | $1.75 | $1.99 | -12.1% | $1.86B |
| Dec 9, 2024 | $4.63 | $4.34 | +6.7% | $3.33B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 11.0× | 8.3× | 86th | Top 12% |
| P/E (forward) | 10.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.8× | — | — | Top 23% |
| EV / Sales | 1.36× | — | — | Bottom 47% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.54% | — | — | Top 32% |
| Earnings yield | 9.11% | — | — | Top 12% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 4.5× – 12.3× since Jul 31, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -2.4%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -8.5%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +15.1%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.8%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -4.6%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -5.4%
- RSI (14)
- 46.3
- Relative volume
- 1.27×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 29.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 16th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.93
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.43
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -17.8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -46.1%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | Apr 8, 2025 | -46.1% | 90 days | Not yet recovered |
| Dec 10, 2021 | Oct 20, 2022 | -46.0% | 216 days | 160 days (Jun 12, 2023) |
| May 7, 2021 | Jul 16, 2021 | -21.2% | 48 days | 97 days (Dec 2, 2021) |
| May 15, 2024 | Jul 5, 2024 | -19.1% | 34 days | 12 days (Jul 23, 2024) |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Oct 25, 2023 | -18.7% | 37 days | 14 days (Nov 14, 2023) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $12.77B
- P/E (TTM)
- 11.0
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $12.45
- Revenue (TTM)
- $10.76B
- Dividend yield
- 0.94%
- 52-week range
- $123.15 – $168.36
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.79B | $10.28B | $9.99B | $10.85B | $10.97B |
| Gross profit | $1.94B | $2.49B | $2.63B | $3.02B | $2.85B |
| Operating income | $1.02B | $1.51B | $1.72B | $2.04B | $1.72B |
| Net income | $833.6M | $1.29B | $1.37B | $1.57B | $1.35B |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.63 | $10.90 | $12.36 | $15.01 | $13.49 |
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.33B | $1.86B | $2.74B | $2.95B | $3.42B | $2.15B | $2.53B | $2.66B |
| Net income | $475.4M | $177.7M | $352.4M | $369.6M | $446.7M | $210.9M | $260.6M | $280.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.63 | $1.75 | $3.50 | $3.73 | $4.58 | $2.19 | $2.72 | $2.96 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.30B | $986.8M | $1.27B | $1.01B | $1.11B |
| Capital expenditure | -$66.9M | -$71.7M | -$73.0M | -$73.6M | -$86.2M |
| Free cash flow | $1.24B | $915.1M | $1.19B | $936.5M | $1.03B |
| Dividends paid | -$76.6M | -$88.9M | -$91.1M | -$93.4M | -$97.1M |
| Net share buybacks | -$378.3M | -$543.4M | -$561.6M | -$627.1M | -$651.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.06B
- Total assets
- $14.69B
- Total liabilities
- $6.14B
- Total debt
- $2.91B
- Net debt
- $1.85B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $8.53B
As of Jul 31, 2026 (filed Aug 28, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | $0.26 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | $0.26 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | $0.26 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | $0.25 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | $0.25 | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | $0.25 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | $0.25 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | $0.23 | Jan 24, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 3,761,319
- Days to cover
- 4.28
- Change vs previous report
- -1.1%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jul 11, 2005
- 2-for-1
- Apr 1, 2002
- 2-for-1
- Apr 21, 1987
- 2-for-1
- Feb 27, 1987
- 3-for-2