Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Tractor Supply Company TSCO
$31.09 -2.02% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $16.31B
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Oct 22, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 16.2× trailing earnings, lower than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Net debt is 3.3× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth29Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 50%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 42%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 15%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 44%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 36%
Quality46Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 25%
- Gross marginBottom 43%
- Operating marginTop 40%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 25%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 22%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 42%
- Interest coverTop 18%
Value61Neutral
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 32%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 27%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 46%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 45%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 16%
Momentum10Very weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 12%
- 6-month returnBottom 12%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 12%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 21%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Revisions10Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 23%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 13%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 44%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 31%
Stability72Positive
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 17%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 47%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 19%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 42%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 4.6% | 4.0% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 1.2% | -5.9% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 35.6% | 32.5% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 9.7% | 8.9% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 5.4% | 1.9% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 4.0% | 4.6% | ↓ | Bottom 50% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -5.9% | 1.2% | ↓ | Bottom 42% |
| Gross margin | 32.5% | 35.6% | ↓ | Bottom 43% |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 9.7% | ↓ | Top 40% |
| Net margin | 6.4% | 7.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 1.9% | 5.4% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 11.8% | — | Top 25% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 3.0% | — | Top 44% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.27×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -2.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.4%
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.30×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 20.7×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 3.04%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 2.48%
- Shareholder yield
- 5.52%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -1.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 27, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -3.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -3.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $37.00
- Target vs current price
- +19.0%
- Analysts with a rating
- 50
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 48%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | -1.0% | +3.3% | +5.6% | +20.7% | — |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -9.2% | -11.7% | -20.4% | -29.2% | -30.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | -7.0% | -7.6% | +0.3% | -7.2% | -33.4% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | +1.6% | +2.8% | -1.1% | -4.2% | -7.0% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | +1.0% | -0.5% | -3.0% | +2.4% | -7.5% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | -7.6% | -3.4% | -0.2% | -1.4% | +13.2% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | -80.7% | -5.0% | -6.2% | -4.3% | -12.7% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | +0.6% | -6.1% | -8.3% | -7.6% | -1.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | $0.81 | $0.82 | -1.0% | $4.54B |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $0.31 | $0.34 | -9.2% | $3.59B |
| Jan 29, 2026 | $0.43 | $0.46 | -7.0% | $3.90B |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $0.49 | $0.48 | +1.6% | $3.72B |
| Jul 24, 2025 | $0.81 | $0.80 | +1.0% | $4.44B |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.34 | $0.37 | -7.6% | $3.47B |
| Jan 30, 2025 | $0.44 | $2.28 | -80.7% | $3.77B |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.45 | $0.45 | +0.6% | $3.47B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 16.2× | 24.8× | 5th | Top 32% |
| P/E (forward) | 16.1× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.8× | — | — | Top 46% |
| EV / Sales | 1.44× | — | — | Bottom 45% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.88% | — | — | Bottom 27% |
| Earnings yield | 6.18% | — | — | Top 32% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 15.6× – 29.4× since Jun 26, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -44.4%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -5.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -39.6%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +2.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.9%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -7.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -22.1%
- RSI (14)
- 37.0
- Relative volume
- 1.43×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 29.2%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 61th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.64
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.30
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -44.8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -53.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2025 | Jun 3, 2026 | -53.5% | 191 days | Not yet recovered |
| Dec 31, 2021 | May 24, 2022 | -28.5% | 99 days | 183 days (Feb 15, 2023) |
| Apr 24, 2023 | Oct 27, 2023 | -24.9% | 130 days | 82 days (Feb 27, 2024) |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Jun 2, 2025 | -21.2% | 157 days | 53 days (Aug 18, 2025) |
| Oct 16, 2020 | Nov 18, 2020 | -16.1% | 23 days | 37 days (Jan 13, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $16.31B
- P/E (TTM)
- 16.2
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.92
- Revenue (TTM)
- $15.75B
- Dividend yield
- 3.06%
- 52-week range
- $28.36 – $58.21
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.73B | $14.20B | $14.56B | $14.88B | $15.52B |
| Gross profit | $4.48B | $4.97B | $5.23B | $5.40B | $5.16B |
| Operating income | $1.31B | $1.43B | $1.48B | $1.47B | $1.47B |
| Net income | $997.1M | $1.09B | $1.11B | $1.10B | $1.10B |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.72 | $1.94 | $2.02 | $2.04 | $2.06 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.47B | $3.77B | $3.47B | $4.44B | $3.72B | $3.90B | $3.59B | $4.54B |
| Net income | $241.5M | $236.4M | $179.4M | $430.0M | $259.3M | $227.4M | $164.5M | $360.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.45 | $0.44 | $0.34 | $0.81 | $0.49 | $0.43 | $0.31 | $0.69 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.14B | $1.36B | $1.33B | $1.42B | $1.64B |
| Capital expenditure | -$628.4M | -$773.4M | -$753.9M | -$784.0M | -$894.8M |
| Free cash flow | $510.3M | $583.6M | $580.1M | $636.8M | $740.5M |
| Dividends paid | -$239.0M | -$409.6M | -$449.6M | -$472.5M | -$487.7M |
| Net share buybacks | -$731.5M | -$703.1M | -$594.2M | -$545.2M | -$337.7M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $231.6M
- Total assets
- $12.16B
- Total liabilities
- $9.53B
- Total debt
- $6.54B
- Net debt
- $6.31B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.63B
As of Jun 27, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | $0.24 | Sep 8, 2026 |
| May 27, 2026 | $0.24 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $0.24 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | $0.23 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | $0.23 | Sep 9, 2025 |
| May 28, 2025 | $0.23 | Jun 10, 2025 |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $0.23 | Mar 11, 2025 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | $1.10 | Dec 10, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 39,384,230
- Days to cover
- 4.63
- Change vs previous report
- -9.3%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Dec 20, 2024
- 5-for-1
- Sep 27, 2013
- 2-for-1
- Sep 3, 2010
- 2-for-1
- Aug 22, 2003
- 2-for-1
- Aug 20, 2002
- 2-for-1