Stocks · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Upstream Bio, Inc. UPB
$5.04 +0.00% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $274.3M
Weak trendExpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -5382.6% from -4464.6% a year earlier.
- The stock is 85% below its highest close of the past year.
- Over the past year the stock returned -72.9%, behind the S&P 500 by 88.0 percentage points.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Healthcare sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 38%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 19%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 10%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 19%
- Gross marginTop 8%
- Operating marginBottom 6%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 47%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 13%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 9%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 6%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 12%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 3%
- 6-month returnBottom 6%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 2%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 1%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 14%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 48%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 49%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 25%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 6%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 49%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 25%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 43%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 44.7% | 16.0% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | 98.4% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -4464.6% | -5382.6% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -4206.2% | -4317.4% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 16.0% | 44.7% | ↓ | Top 38% |
| Gross margin | 98.4% | 100.0% | ↓ | Top 8% |
| Operating margin | -5382.6% | -4464.6% | ↓ | Bottom 6% |
| Net margin | -4955.7% | -3836.6% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -4317.4% | -4206.2% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -62.5% | — | Bottom 19% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 33.0% | — | Top 19% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -7.2%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 446.5%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -34.7 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -1.82%
- Shareholder yield
- -1.82%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +1.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 11, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +4.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.4%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $25.00
- Target vs current price
- +396.0%
- Analysts with a rating
- 5
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 60%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | +6.4% | -4.7% | -4.0% | -16.8% | — |
| May 13, 2026 | +0.0% | +4.6% | -10.3% | -29.8% | -19.0% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -8.2% | +3.4% | -1.7% | +1.4% | -33.5% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | +19.2% | -4.3% | -5.0% | +7.7% | +19.6% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | -21.3% | +7.9% | +12.9% | +29.0% | +56.1% |
| May 6, 2025 | -4.1% | -5.4% | +9.4% | +24.9% | +76.4% |
| Mar 12, 2025 | +26.8% | +7.8% | +5.6% | -29.1% | +26.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -1200.3% | +1.7% | -2.5% | -17.2% | -66.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | -$0.73 | -$0.78 | +6.4% | $773,000 |
| May 13, 2026 | -$0.75 | -$0.75 | +0.0% | $1.0M |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -$0.79 | -$0.73 | -8.2% | $668,000 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | -$0.63 | -$0.78 | +19.2% | $683,000 |
| Aug 6, 2025 | -$0.74 | -$0.61 | -21.3% | $937,000 |
| May 6, 2025 | -$0.51 | -$0.49 | -4.1% | $566,000 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | -$0.41 | -$0.56 | +26.8% | $613,000 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -$6.96 | -$0.54 | -1200.3% | $607,000 |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 62.01× | — | — | Bottom 12% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -49.71% | — | — | Bottom 9% |
| Earnings yield | -57.54% | — | — | Bottom 13% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -9.8%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -15.5%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -19.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -57.4%
- RSI (14)
- 32.4
- Relative volume
- 1.47×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 54.9%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 0th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.23
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.20
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -84.5%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -84.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | -84.5% | 180 days | Not yet recovered |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Apr 8, 2025 | -77.8% | 104 days | 160 days (Nov 25, 2025) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Jan 6, 2026 | -15.0% | 9 days | 4 days (Jan 12, 2026) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Dec 2, 2025 | -13.7% | 1 days | 10 days (Dec 16, 2025) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $274.3M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$2.90
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.2M
- 52-week range
- $4.86 – $33.68
| FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2M | $2.4M | $2.4M | $2.9M |
| Gross profit | $1.2M | $2.4M | $2.4M | $2.9M |
| Operating income | -$23.9M | -$40.1M | -$77.8M | -$160.4M |
| Net income | -$23.9M | -$20.5M | -$62.8M | -$143.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.66 | -$1.05 | -$1.49 | -$2.66 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $607,000 | $613,000 | $566,000 | $937,000 | $683,000 | $668,000 | $1.0M | $773,000 |
| Net income | -$16.0M | -$21.2M | -$27.3M | -$40.0M | -$33.7M | -$42.5M | -$40.6M | -$39.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.41 | -$0.41 | -$0.51 | -$0.74 | -$0.63 | -$0.79 | -$0.75 | -$0.73 |
| FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$19.0M | -$37.9M | -$59.2M | -$133.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$82,000 | -$144,000 | -$511,000 | -$165,000 |
| Free cash flow | -$19.1M | -$38.1M | -$59.7M | -$133.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $118,000 | $272.7M | $2.4M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $261.3M
- Total assets
- $281.2M
- Total liabilities
- $10.2M
- Total debt
- $954,000
- Net debt
- -$78.4M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $271.0M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 11, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 4,490,724
- Days to cover
- 6.84
- Change vs previous report
- +9.7%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.