Stocks · Communication Services · Entertainment
Warner Music Group Corp. WMG
$26.82 -0.85% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $13.99B
Strong growth
Next earnings report: Nov 19, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $1.29, up 128.0% year over year.
- The shares trade at 20.8× trailing earnings, lower than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Communication Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 28%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 9%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 18%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 46%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 41%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 15%
- Gross marginBottom 39%
- Operating marginTop 29%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 24%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 16%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 41%
- Interest coverTop 24%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 26%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 49%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 43%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 34%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 25%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 30%
- 6-month returnTop 48%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 34%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 37%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 39%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 34%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 28%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 37%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 35%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 24%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 47%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 41%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 12.6% | 12.9% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 1.5% | 128.0% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 46.6% | 45.8% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 10.7% | 14.3% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 7.2% | 11.1% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 12.9% | 12.6% | ↑ | Top 28% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 128.0% | 1.5% | ↑ | Top 9% |
| Gross margin | 45.8% | 46.6% | ↓ | Bottom 39% |
| Operating margin | 14.3% | 10.7% | ↑ | Top 29% |
| Net margin | 9.2% | 4.6% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 11.1% | 7.2% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 12.6% | — | Top 15% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 4.3% | — | Bottom 46% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.41×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -2.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +61.7 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.81×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 6.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 4.29%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.78%
- Shareholder yield
- 5.07%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 2
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -4.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $39.50
- Target vs current price
- +47.3%
- Analysts with a rating
- 24
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 67%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | +10.6% | +0.8% | -2.8% | +8.4% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | +27.2% | +2.3% | +7.7% | -1.2% | -17.3% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -17.5% | -0.0% | +5.6% | +3.2% | -0.8% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | -40.0% | -2.7% | -8.2% | -3.8% | -4.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | -110.3% | +3.7% | +6.8% | +9.2% | +5.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | -75.2% | -7.9% | -9.4% | -12.9% | -2.9% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | +32.4% | -1.1% | +8.0% | +5.4% | -5.7% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | -71.4% | -7.4% | -4.7% | -8.7% | +5.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.38 | $0.34 | +10.6% | $1.86B |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.34 | $0.27 | +27.2% | $1.73B |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.33 | $0.40 | -17.5% | $1.84B |
| Nov 20, 2025 | $0.21 | $0.35 | -40.0% | $1.87B |
| Aug 7, 2025 | -$0.03 | $0.29 | -110.3% | $1.69B |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.07 | $0.28 | -75.2% | $1.48B |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.45 | $0.34 | +32.4% | $1.67B |
| Nov 21, 2024 | $0.08 | $0.28 | -71.4% | $1.63B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 20.8× | 37.3× | 5th | Top 26% |
| P/E (forward) | 18.0× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.9× | — | — | Top 43% |
| EV / Sales | 2.50× | — | — | Bottom 34% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.82% | — | — | Bottom 49% |
| Earnings yield | 4.81% | — | — | Top 26% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 20.2× – 71.8× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -21.7%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +128.0%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -63.4%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -1.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -6.2%
- RSI (14)
- 41.3
- Relative volume
- 1.17×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 35.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 57th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.96
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.43
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -22.8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -36.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2021 | Oct 10, 2022 | -54.9% | 238 days | Not yet recovered |
| Feb 10, 2021 | Mar 23, 2021 | -18.2% | 28 days | 24 days (Apr 27, 2021) |
| Apr 27, 2021 | May 13, 2021 | -14.4% | 12 days | 82 days (Sep 9, 2021) |
| Oct 15, 2020 | Nov 2, 2020 | -11.6% | 12 days | 10 days (Nov 16, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $13.99B
- P/E (TTM)
- 20.8
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $1.29
- Revenue (TTM)
- $7.30B
- Dividend yield
- 2.87%
- 52-week range
- $23.34 – $35.42
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.30B | $5.92B | $6.04B | $6.43B | $6.71B |
| Gross profit | $2.56B | $2.84B | $2.86B | $3.07B | $3.08B |
| Operating income | $609.0M | $714.0M | $790.0M | $823.0M | $694.0M |
| Net income | $304.0M | $551.0M | $430.0M | $435.0M | $365.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.58 | $1.06 | $0.82 | $0.84 | $0.70 |
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.63B | $1.67B | $1.48B | $1.69B | $1.87B | $1.84B | $1.73B | $1.86B |
| Net income | $41.0M | $236.0M | $36.0M | -$16.0M | $109.0M | $176.0M | $183.0M | $204.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.08 | $0.45 | $0.07 | -$0.03 | $0.21 | $0.34 | $0.35 | $0.39 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $638.0M | $742.0M | $687.0M | $754.0M | $678.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$574.0M | -$326.0M | -$241.0M | -$116.0M | -$139.0M |
| Free cash flow | $64.0M | $416.0M | $446.0M | $638.0M | $539.0M |
| Dividends paid | -$265.0M | -$318.0M | -$340.0M | -$361.0M | -$383.0M |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | -$6.0M | $0 | -$5.0M | -$16.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $618.0M
- Total assets
- $10.73B
- Total liabilities
- $9.64B
- Total debt
- $4.92B
- Net debt
- $4.30B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $854.0M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | $0.20 | Sep 1, 2026 |
| May 26, 2026 | $0.19 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $0.19 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | $0.19 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | $0.19 | Sep 3, 2025 |
| May 27, 2025 | $0.18 | Jun 3, 2025 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | $0.18 | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | $0.18 | Dec 3, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 9,611,971
- Days to cover
- 5.36
- Change vs previous report
- -7.3%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.