Stocks · Basic Materials · Aluminum
Alcoa Corporation AA
$41.95 -0.26% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $11.07B
Inexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 15, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to 8.0% from 15.9% a year earlier.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
- The shares trade at 8.5× trailing earnings, lower than 82% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Basic Materials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth65Positive
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 41%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 34%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 34%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 41%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 19%
Quality41Weak
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 39%
- Gross marginBottom 34%
- Operating marginBottom 47%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 13%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 10%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 29%
- Interest coverTop 32%
Value94Exceptional
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 5%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 50%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 6%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 20%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 21%
Momentum38Weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 18%
- 6-month returnBottom 8%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 30%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 19%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 26%
Revisions62Neutral
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 19%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 21%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 46%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 33%
Stability46Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 47%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 48%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 16%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 29%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -2.7% | 3.1% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 20.2% | 27.9% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 20.9% | 18.8% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 15.9% | 8.0% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 4.4% | 2.6% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 3.1% | -2.7% | ↑ | Bottom 41% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 27.9% | 20.2% | ↑ | Top 34% |
| Gross margin | 18.8% | 20.9% | ↓ | Bottom 34% |
| Operating margin | 8.0% | 15.9% | ↓ | Bottom 47% |
| Net margin | 9.4% | 7.6% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.6% | 4.4% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 8.3% | — | Top 39% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 0.2% | — | Top 41% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.82×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 1.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +39.3 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.44×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 9.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.94%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.00%
- Shareholder yield
- 0.94%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +1.3%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +14.0%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +26.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.6%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $63.50
- Target vs current price
- +51.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 42
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 55%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.8% | -3.6% | -5.0% | +5.4% | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | -8.5% | +0.0% | -2.6% | -2.8% | -30.8% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | +36.1% | -1.1% | -6.0% | -6.5% | +2.7% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | +85.8% | -4.2% | +5.6% | -1.8% | +61.3% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | +21.0% | +0.2% | +12.1% | +10.1% | +30.1% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | +28.0% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +20.0% | +20.7% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | +11.8% | +0.4% | -11.6% | -6.3% | -35.1% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | +128.6% | +1.9% | +1.7% | -0.8% | -11.7% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | $2.12 | $2.25 | -5.8% | $3.97B |
| Apr 16, 2026 | $1.40 | $1.53 | -8.5% | $3.19B |
| Jan 22, 2026 | $1.26 | $0.93 | +36.1% | $3.45B |
| Oct 22, 2025 | -$0.02 | -$0.14 | +85.8% | $3.00B |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $0.39 | $0.32 | +21.0% | $3.02B |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $2.15 | $1.68 | +28.0% | $3.37B |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $1.04 | $0.93 | +11.8% | $3.49B |
| Oct 16, 2024 | $0.57 | $0.25 | +128.6% | $2.90B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 8.5× | 10.8× | 18th | Top 5% |
| P/E (forward) | 6.5× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.0× | — | — | Top 6% |
| EV / Sales | 0.88× | — | — | Top 20% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.18% | — | — | Bottom 50% |
| Earnings yield | 11.70% | — | — | Top 5% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 7.4× – 33.2× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +23.9%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +27.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +17.4%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -2.5%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -11.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -27.7%
- RSI (14)
- 30.4
- Relative volume
- 0.97×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 43.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 12th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.60
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.51
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -49.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -52.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | Apr 8, 2025 | -76.3% | 762 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 7, 2021 | Jan 29, 2021 | -28.7% | 15 days | 17 days (Feb 24, 2021) |
| Oct 18, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | -23.5% | 31 days | 15 days (Dec 22, 2021) |
| May 11, 2021 | Jul 19, 2021 | -23.5% | 47 days | 16 days (Aug 10, 2021) |
| Mar 4, 2022 | Mar 14, 2022 | -18.9% | 6 days | 5 days (Mar 21, 2022) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $11.07B
- P/E (TTM)
- 8.5
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $4.91
- Revenue (TTM)
- $13.60B
- Dividend yield
- 0.95%
- 52-week range
- $33.77 – $84.38
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.44B | $12.76B | $10.71B | $12.18B | $12.83B |
| Gross profit | $2.62B | $1.93B | $241.0M | $1.50B | $2.17B |
| Operating income | $2.36B | $1.70B | -$24.0M | $1.17B | $758.0M |
| Net income | $429.0M | -$123.0M | -$651.0M | $60.0M | $1.16B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.26 | -$0.57 | -$3.65 | $0.28 | $4.44 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.83B | $3.98B | $3.37B | $3.02B | $3.00B | $3.45B | $3.19B | $3.97B |
| Net income | $90.0M | $202.0M | $548.0M | $164.0M | $232.0M | $213.0M | $425.0M | $407.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.38 | $0.76 | $2.07 | $0.63 | $0.89 | $0.87 | $1.60 | $1.55 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $920.0M | $822.0M | $91.0M | $622.0M | $1.19B |
| Capital expenditure | -$390.0M | -$480.0M | -$531.0M | -$580.0M | -$618.0M |
| Free cash flow | $530.0M | $342.0M | -$440.0M | $42.0M | $567.0M |
| Dividends paid | -$19.0M | -$72.0M | -$72.0M | -$89.0M | -$104.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$150.0M | -$500.0M | $0 | -$15.0M | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.35B
- Total assets
- $16.85B
- Total liabilities
- $9.42B
- Total debt
- $2.23B
- Net debt
- $873.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $7.37B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | $0.10 | Aug 27, 2026 |
| May 19, 2026 | $0.10 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | $0.10 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.10 | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | $0.10 | Aug 28, 2025 |
| May 20, 2025 | $0.10 | Jun 6, 2025 |
| Mar 4, 2025 | $0.10 | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.10 | Nov 15, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 11,984,650
- Days to cover
- 3.52
- Change vs previous report
- -1.7%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Nov 1, 2016
- 1,000-for-801
- Oct 6, 2016
- 1-for-3
- Jun 12, 2000
- 2-for-1
- Feb 26, 1999
- 2-for-1
- Feb 27, 1995
- 2-for-1