Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
American Financial Group, Inc. AFG
$139.10 +0.74% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $11.56B
Inexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 73 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $11.45, up 25.5% year over year.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $8.17B, down 1.3% from a year earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth17Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 24%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 43%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 21%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 18%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 45%
Quality74Positive
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 13%
- Gross marginBottom 8%
- Operating marginBottom 33%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 26%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 27%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 35%
- Interest coverTop 11%
Value86Strong
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 34%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 25%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 22%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 18%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 44%
Momentum37Weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 24%
- 6-month returnTop 46%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 27%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 37%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 48%
Revisions47Neutral
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 28%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 43%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 42%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 38%
Stability76Positive
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 27%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 29%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 35%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 35%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -1.6% | -1.3% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 10.6% | 25.5% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 16.4% | 26.0% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 11.8% | 14.7% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 21.0% | 17.5% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -1.3% | -1.6% | ↑ | Bottom 24% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 25.5% | 10.6% | ↑ | Top 43% |
| Gross margin | 26.0% | 16.4% | ↑ | Bottom 8% |
| Operating margin | 14.7% | 11.8% | ↑ | Bottom 33% |
| Net margin | 11.7% | 9.2% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 17.5% | 21.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 10.9% | — | Top 13% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 6.2% | — | Bottom 18% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.64×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -1.9%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- -0.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +334.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.28×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 13.5×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 4.98%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.67%
- Shareholder yield
- 5.66%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.9%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +10.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $156.00
- Target vs current price
- +12.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 17
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 41%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | +21.6% | -0.9% | +1.4% | +0.4% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -3.1% | -1.5% | +0.2% | +1.7% | +9.4% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | +14.8% | +0.1% | -0.4% | +1.4% | -0.6% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +6.7% | +0.9% | +9.1% | +2.2% | -0.1% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | +2.9% | +0.6% | +3.9% | +10.7% | +5.8% |
| May 6, 2025 | -10.8% | +0.7% | -4.4% | -3.5% | -3.3% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | -1.0% | -0.5% | -7.4% | -8.0% | -7.3% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | -6.5% | +0.5% | +12.1% | +12.0% | +7.8% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $2.82 | $2.32 | +21.6% | $1.92B |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $2.47 | $2.55 | -3.1% | $1.66B |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $3.65 | $3.18 | +14.8% | $1.44B |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $2.69 | $2.52 | +6.7% | $2.30B |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $2.14 | $2.08 | +2.9% | $1.92B |
| May 6, 2025 | $1.81 | $2.03 | -10.8% | $1.86B |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $3.12 | $3.15 | -1.0% | $2.15B |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $2.31 | $2.47 | -6.5% | $2.37B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 12.1× | 12.2× | 48th | Top 34% |
| P/E (forward) | 11.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.6× | — | — | Top 22% |
| EV / Sales | 1.46× | — | — | Top 18% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.38% | — | — | Top 25% |
| Earnings yield | 8.23% | — | — | Top 34% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 5.0× – 14.8× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -5.1%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +25.5%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -8.7%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 73
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.4%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -2.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +2.8%
- RSI (14)
- 43.1
- Relative volume
- 0.89×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 16.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 4th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.52
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.37
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -6.5%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -21.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | Oct 23, 2023 | -29.4% | 394 days | Not yet recovered |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Jan 27, 2021 | -16.2% | 42 days | 6 days (Feb 4, 2021) |
| Jun 4, 2021 | Jun 7, 2021 | -14.6% | 1 days | 105 days (Nov 3, 2021) |
| Nov 10, 2021 | Jan 27, 2022 | -13.9% | 53 days | 39 days (Mar 24, 2022) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $11.56B
- P/E (TTM)
- 12.1
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $11.45
- Revenue (TTM)
- $8.17B
- Dividend yield
- 5.74%
- 52-week range
- $123.09 – $150.02
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.23B | $6.77B | $7.73B | $8.28B | $8.12B |
| Gross profit | $1.37B | $1.20B | $1.35B | $1.47B | $1.43B |
| Operating income | $1.33B | $1.12B | $1.07B | $1.12B | $1.07B |
| Net income | $2.00B | $898.0M | $852.0M | $887.0M | $842.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $23.30 | $10.53 | $10.05 | $10.57 | $10.08 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.36B | $2.15B | $1.84B | $1.93B | $2.30B | $2.04B | $1.84B | $1.99B |
| Net income | $181.0M | $255.0M | $154.0M | $174.0M | $215.0M | $299.0M | $191.0M | $248.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.16 | $3.04 | $1.84 | $2.08 | $2.58 | $3.59 | $2.29 | $2.99 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.71B | $1.15B | $1.97B | $1.15B | $1.53B |
| Capital expenditure | -$150.0M | -$86.0M | -$72.0M | $0 | -$135.0M |
| Free cash flow | $1.56B | $1.07B | $1.90B | $1.15B | $1.40B |
| Dividends paid | -$2.37B | -$1.21B | -$684.0M | -$788.0M | -$606.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$253.0M | $5.0M | -$198.0M | $17.0M | -$87.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.28B
- Total assets
- $33.03B
- Total liabilities
- $28.21B
- Total debt
- $1.82B
- Net debt
- $383.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $4.82B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | $0.97 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | $0.88 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | $0.88 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $1.50 | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $0.88 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | $2.00 | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | $0.88 | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | $0.80 | Jul 25, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,723,256
- Days to cover
- 5.65
- Change vs previous report
- +8.7%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Dec 18, 2006
- 3-for-2
- Mar 14, 1988
- 2-for-1
- Jan 25, 1982
- 3-for-2