Stocks · Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services
Alaska Air Group, Inc. ALK
$39.53 +0.10% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $4.40B
Next earnings report: Oct 22, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $-1.59, down 164.6% year over year.
- The diluted share count fell 8.5% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- Net debt is 10.2× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 43%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 6%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 21%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 11%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 24%
- Gross marginTop 1%
- Operating marginBottom 21%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 37%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 5%
- Interest coverBottom 13%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 25%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 16%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 49%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 12%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 26%
- 6-month returnTop 48%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 27%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 34%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 15%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 9%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 39%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 17%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 41%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 48%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 42%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 42%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 5%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 13.9% | 9.8% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -80.7% | -164.6% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 23.1% | 94.6% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 3.7% | -1.5% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -0.1% | -2.4% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 9.8% | 13.9% | ↓ | Top 43% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -164.6% | -80.7% | ↓ | Bottom 6% |
| Gross margin | 94.6% | 23.1% | ↑ | Top 1% |
| Operating margin | -1.5% | 3.7% | ↓ | Bottom 21% |
| Net margin | -1.2% | 2.3% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -2.4% | -0.1% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -0.7% | — | Bottom 24% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 13.9% | — | Top 21% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -17.4 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 10.17×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -7.5×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 6.47%
- Shareholder yield
- 6.47%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -8.5%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -4.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 5 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +73.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $54.43
- Target vs current price
- +37.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 28
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 79%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | +7.3% | -1.3% | +3.2% | -4.3% | — |
| Apr 20, 2026 | -1.8% | -4.1% | -8.4% | -18.6% | +5.5% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | +290.9% | -0.2% | +7.0% | +6.5% | -7.3% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | -3.7% | -2.2% | -12.4% | -19.0% | -0.2% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | +14.1% | +1.5% | +2.1% | +7.7% | -8.0% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | -0.0% | +2.8% | -2.8% | +16.6% | +18.3% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | +115.6% | -2.1% | +3.7% | +11.2% | -35.2% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | +3.7% | +1.4% | +9.2% | +11.4% | +52.7% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | -$0.92 | -$0.99 | +7.3% | $4.07B |
| Apr 20, 2026 | -$1.68 | -$1.65 | -1.8% | $3.30B |
| Jan 22, 2026 | $0.43 | $0.11 | +290.9% | $3.63B |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $1.05 | $1.09 | -3.7% | $3.77B |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $1.78 | $1.56 | +14.1% | $3.70B |
| Apr 23, 2025 | -$0.77 | -$0.77 | -0.0% | $3.14B |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $0.97 | $0.45 | +115.6% | $3.53B |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $2.25 | $2.17 | +3.7% | $3.07B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 17.0× | — | — | Bottom 49% |
| EV / Sales | 0.74× | — | — | Top 12% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -7.95% | — | — | Bottom 16% |
| Earnings yield | -4.02% | — | — | Bottom 25% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 14.0× – 398.1× since Sep 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -18.5%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -164.6%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +299.1%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -7.2%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -8.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -13.0%
- RSI (14)
- 42.6
- Relative volume
- 0.93×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 42.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 61th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.14
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.35
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -34.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -55.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2021 | Nov 1, 2023 | -57.9% | 649 days | 311 days (Jan 30, 2025) |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Mar 30, 2026 | -55.4% | 278 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 23, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -14.1% | 3 days | 8 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
| Jan 20, 2021 | Jan 29, 2021 | -12.5% | 7 days | 6 days (Feb 8, 2021) |
| Mar 17, 2021 | Mar 24, 2021 | -10.6% | 5 days | 8 days (Apr 6, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $4.40B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$1.59
- Revenue (TTM)
- $14.76B
- 52-week range
- $33.03 – $60.63
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.18B | $9.65B | $10.43B | $11.73B | $14.24B |
| Gross profit | $817.0M | $2.13B | $2.46B | $2.86B | $8.49B |
| Operating income | $685.0M | $70.0M | $394.0M | $570.0M | $303.0M |
| Net income | $478.0M | $58.0M | $235.0M | $395.0M | $100.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.77 | $0.45 | $1.83 | $3.08 | $0.87 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.07B | $3.53B | $3.14B | $3.70B | $3.77B | $3.63B | $3.30B | $4.07B |
| Net income | $236.0M | $71.0M | -$166.0M | $172.0M | $73.0M | $21.0M | -$193.0M | -$76.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.84 | $0.55 | -$1.35 | $1.42 | $0.62 | $0.18 | -$1.69 | -$0.70 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.03B | $1.42B | $1.05B | $1.46B | $1.25B |
| Capital expenditure | -$292.0M | -$1.67B | -$1.49B | -$1.28B | -$1.59B |
| Free cash flow | $738.0M | -$253.0M | -$444.0M | $183.0M | -$339.0M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $0 | -$137.0M | -$312.0M | -$570.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.69B
- Total assets
- $21.25B
- Total liabilities
- $17.58B
- Total debt
- $7.62B
- Net debt
- $6.52B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $3.67B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2020 | $0.38 | Mar 5, 2020 |
| Nov 18, 2019 | $0.35 | Dec 5, 2019 |
| Aug 19, 2019 | $0.35 | Sep 5, 2019 |
| May 20, 2019 | $0.35 | Jun 6, 2019 |
| Feb 15, 2019 | $0.35 | Mar 7, 2019 |
| Nov 19, 2018 | $0.32 | Dec 6, 2018 |
| Aug 20, 2018 | $0.32 | Sep 6, 2018 |
| May 21, 2018 | $0.32 | Jun 7, 2018 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 11,512,393
- Days to cover
- 5.06
- Change vs previous report
- +2.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jul 10, 2014
- 2-for-1
- Mar 19, 2012
- 2-for-1
- Nov 16, 1981
- 21-for-20
- Nov 17, 1980
- 21-for-20
- Nov 9, 1979
- 21-for-20