Stocks · Technology · Software - Application
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ALRM
$54.68 -0.33% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $2.70B
Inexpensive vs sectorLow risk
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 14 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +14.7%).
- The diluted share count fell 7.0% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 66 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Technology sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 40%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 33%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 32%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 49%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 45%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 39%
- Gross marginTop 35%
- Operating marginTop 29%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 36%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 43%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 49%
- Interest coverTop 32%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 22%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 17%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 21%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 36%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 26%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 47%
- 6-month returnBottom 50%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 50%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 13%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 44%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 35%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 9%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 44%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 35%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 2%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 16%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 25%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 49%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 8.6% | 8.7% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 1.7% | -5.0% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 65.8% | 63.4% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 12.9% | 13.0% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 16.8% | 22.4% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 8.7% | 8.6% | ↑ | Bottom 40% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -5.0% | 1.7% | ↓ | Bottom 33% |
| Gross margin | 63.4% | 65.8% | ↓ | Top 35% |
| Operating margin | 13.0% | 12.9% | ↑ | Top 29% |
| Net margin | 11.1% | 13.3% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 22.4% | 16.8% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 7.0% | — | Top 39% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 6.3% | — | Bottom 49% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 2.12×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -8.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 2.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +23.6 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.42×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 8.7×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 3.37%
- Shareholder yield
- 3.37%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -7.0%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.9%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 14
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +14.7%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $62.50
- Target vs current price
- +14.3%
- Analysts with a rating
- 19
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 68%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +18.8% | -0.7% | -2.1% | -0.2% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | +8.3% | +3.4% | -6.8% | -1.0% | +22.2% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | +9.1% | -0.0% | +4.1% | +1.9% | -6.3% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | +22.6% | -1.2% | +5.2% | +8.9% | -4.4% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +15.4% | -2.6% | +3.1% | +2.4% | -12.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | +12.5% | +3.6% | +12.3% | +8.2% | +4.2% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | +5.5% | -0.3% | -4.7% | -2.4% | -3.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | +26.5% | -1.5% | +5.1% | +17.2% | +8.0% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.77 | $0.65 | +18.8% | $277.7M |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.65 | $0.60 | +8.3% | $265.2M |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.72 | $0.66 | +9.1% | $261.7M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.76 | $0.62 | +22.6% | $256.4M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.60 | $0.52 | +15.4% | $254.3M |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.54 | $0.48 | +12.5% | $238.8M |
| Feb 20, 2025 | $0.58 | $0.55 | +5.5% | $242.2M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.62 | $0.49 | +26.5% | $240.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 24.2× | 39.9× | 24th | Top 22% |
| P/E (forward) | 18.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.2× | — | — | Top 21% |
| EV / Sales | 2.63× | — | — | Top 36% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.77% | — | — | Top 17% |
| Earnings yield | 4.13% | — | — | Top 22% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 18.4× – 86.8× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +5.3%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -5.0%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +9.1%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 66
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +3.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -1.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +10.9%
- RSI (14)
- 50.4
- Relative volume
- 0.82×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 23.3%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 7th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.05
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.54
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -5.1%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -44.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2021 | May 12, 2026 | -60.9% | 1337 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.70B
- P/E (TTM)
- 24.2
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.26
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.06B
- 52-week range
- $41.49 – $58.15
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $749.0M | $842.6M | $881.7M | $939.8M | $1.01B |
| Gross profit | $443.1M | $500.0M | $556.5M | $613.7M | $668.9M |
| Operating income | $61.6M | $51.0M | $66.8M | $108.5M | $133.6M |
| Net income | $52.3M | $56.3M | $81.0M | $124.1M | $132.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.01 | $1.07 | $1.53 | $2.29 | $2.46 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $240.5M | $242.2M | $238.8M | $254.3M | $256.4M | $261.7M | $265.2M | $277.7M |
| Net income | $36.7M | $30.3M | $27.9M | $34.6M | $35.3M | $34.7M | $23.6M | $24.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.67 | $0.56 | $0.52 | $0.63 | $0.65 | $0.66 | $0.47 | $0.48 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $103.2M | $56.9M | $136.0M | $206.4M | $153.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$15.4M | -$28.6M | -$14.2M | -$10.1M | -$16.3M |
| Free cash flow | $87.7M | $28.3M | $121.8M | $196.3M | $137.0M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $5.7M | -$78.8M | -$27.3M | -$75.0M | -$37.1M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $479.4M
- Total assets
- $1.66B
- Total liabilities
- $746.7M
- Total debt
- $567.5M
- Net debt
- $88.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $864.5M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 2,955,286
- Days to cover
- 7.33
- Change vs previous report
- +5.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.