Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
AMERISAFE, Inc. AMSF
$23.59 -0.38% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $441.2M
Weak trendInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to 9.0% from 20.6% a year earlier.
- At 9.5× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the lowest P/E of the company's past five years.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 40%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 25%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 12%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 13%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 31%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 15%
- Gross marginBottom 8%
- Operating marginBottom 19%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 24%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 18%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 10%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 14%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 33%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 39%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 12%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 3%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 5%
- 6-month returnBottom 3%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 5%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 8%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 9%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 16%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 17%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 47%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 18%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 26%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 11%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 25%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 10%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.8% | 9.5% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -2.0% | -6.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 42.8% | 25.8% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 20.6% | 9.0% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 2.6% | 5.8% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 9.5% | 7.8% | ↑ | Top 40% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -6.1% | -2.0% | ↓ | Bottom 25% |
| Gross margin | 25.8% | 42.8% | ↓ | Bottom 8% |
| Operating margin | 9.0% | 20.6% | ↓ | Bottom 19% |
| Net margin | 14.0% | 16.5% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.8% | 2.6% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 9.7% | — | Top 15% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 2.5% | — | Bottom 13% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.43×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 2.4%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -46.8 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -2.13×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 11.13%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 4.30%
- Shareholder yield
- 15.42%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.7%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 23, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 2 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -8.3%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $32.00
- Target vs current price
- +35.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 6
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 50%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | -14.9% | -0.9% | -12.3% | -23.0% | — |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -7.9% | -9.6% | -4.3% | -5.4% | +2.3% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | -10.5% | -1.0% | -7.9% | -11.8% | -15.8% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +0.0% | -2.1% | -1.1% | +0.8% | -8.2% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | -3.6% | -1.0% | +2.6% | +4.5% | -8.0% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | +1.7% | +1.7% | -5.1% | -4.2% | -11.1% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | +11.7% | -1.3% | -1.1% | +1.0% | -9.1% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +8.0% | +14.2% | +0.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $0.44 | $0.52 | -14.9% | $86.0M |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $0.50 | $0.54 | -7.9% | $88.5M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.51 | $0.57 | -10.5% | $70.1M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.55 | $0.55 | +0.0% | $82.0M |
| Jul 24, 2025 | $0.53 | $0.55 | -3.6% | $81.1M |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $0.60 | $0.59 | +1.7% | $72.6M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $0.67 | $0.60 | +11.7% | $74.0M |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.58 | $0.58 | +0.0% | $78.7M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 9.5× | 15.3× | 0th | Top 14% |
| P/E (forward) | 11.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.2× | — | — | Top 39% |
| EV / Sales | 1.12× | — | — | Top 12% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.38% | — | — | Bottom 33% |
| Earnings yield | 10.51% | — | — | Top 14% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 11.7× – 29.6× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -45.5%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -6.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -30.4%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -12.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.5%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -10.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -26.9%
- RSI (14)
- 27.2
- Relative volume
- 0.77×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 31.1%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 73th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.31
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.18
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -45.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -60.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2021 | Sep 25, 2026 | -64.7% | 1348 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 6, 2021 | Feb 1, 2021 | -11.7% | 17 days | 24 days (Mar 8, 2021) |
| Nov 6, 2020 | Dec 2, 2020 | -10.8% | 17 days | 23 days (Jan 6, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $441.2M
- P/E (TTM)
- 9.5
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.48
- Revenue (TTM)
- $335.6M
- Dividend yield
- 11.11%
- 52-week range
- $23.20 – $43.73
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $316.0M | $294.7M | $306.9M | $309.1M | $317.3M |
| Gross profit | $155.2M | $142.4M | $135.2M | $128.1M | $147.3M |
| Operating income | $79.4M | $67.6M | $77.4M | $69.1M | $58.9M |
| Net income | $65.8M | $55.6M | $62.1M | $55.4M | $47.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.39 | $2.88 | $3.23 | $2.89 | $2.47 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $78.7M | $74.0M | $72.6M | $81.1M | $82.0M | $81.6M | $80.1M | $92.0M |
| Net income | $14.3M | $13.2M | $8.9M | $14.0M | $13.8M | $10.4M | $8.1M | $14.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.75 | $0.69 | $0.47 | $0.73 | $0.72 | $0.55 | $0.43 | $0.78 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $38.0M | $28.2M | $29.8M | $24.2M | $11.1M |
| Capital expenditure | -$1.3M | -$2.1M | -$553,000 | -$840,000 | -$2.1M |
| Free cash flow | $36.7M | $26.1M | $29.3M | $23.4M | $8.9M |
| Dividends paid | -$22.5M | -$100.4M | -$93.3M | -$85.4M | -$48.6M |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | -$12.4M | -$2.2M | -$5.7M | -$12.1M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $65.5M
- Total assets
- $1.13B
- Total liabilities
- $877.3M
- Total debt
- $0
- Net debt
- -$65.5M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $250.0M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 23, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | $0.41 | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | $0.41 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $0.41 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | $1.39 | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | $0.39 | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | $0.39 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | $0.39 | Mar 21, 2025 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | $3.37 | Dec 13, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,120,147
- Days to cover
- 2.40
- Change vs previous report
- +23.1%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.