Stocks · Technology · Information Technology Services
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI
$2.65 -3.28% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $1.27B
Weak trendExpensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 9, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -72.8% from -36.7% a year earlier.
- The diluted share count rose 49.4% in a year.
- The stock is 70% below its highest close of the past year.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Technology sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 5%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 13%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 15%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 19%
- Gross marginBottom 20%
- Operating marginBottom 11%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 21%
- Interest coverBottom 19%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 19%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 14%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 17%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 25%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 6%
- 6-month returnBottom 8%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 4%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 5%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 10%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 19%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 12%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 5%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 29%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 42%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 23%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 3%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -20.3% | -13.7% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 28.0% | 27.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -36.7% | -72.8% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -24.7% | -56.1% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -13.7% | -20.3% | ↑ | Bottom 5% |
| Gross margin | 27.9% | 28.0% | ↓ | Bottom 20% |
| Operating margin | -72.8% | -36.7% | ↓ | Bottom 11% |
| Net margin | -65.2% | -294.5% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -56.1% | -24.7% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -12.1% | — | Bottom 19% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -6.3% | — | Bottom 13% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -1.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 15.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +20.4 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -10.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -26.92%
- Shareholder yield
- -26.92%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +49.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +50.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +31.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $4.00
- Target vs current price
- +50.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 4
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 25%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | -11.1% | +9.3% | +17.0% | +17.8% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | +0.0% | -0.7% | +3.6% | +22.5% | -32.1% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | +20.0% | +3.5% | +7.3% | -20.7% | +5.6% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | +116.7% | +0.5% | +6.7% | +15.5% | -28.2% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | -914.3% | -0.7% | -14.0% | -31.8% | -11.8% |
| May 1, 2025 | -316.7% | -2.1% | -10.6% | +13.5% | +109.7% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | -760.0% | -12.5% | -31.9% | -34.8% | -13.3% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | +16.7% | +9.3% | +21.7% | +75.8% | +162.7% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | -$0.05 | -$0.05 | -11.1% | $36.7M |
| May 5, 2026 | -$0.08 | -$0.08 | +0.0% | $34.4M |
| Mar 2, 2026 | -$0.04 | -$0.05 | +20.0% | $27.3M |
| Nov 10, 2025 | $0.01 | -$0.06 | +116.7% | $33.1M |
| Aug 11, 2025 | -$0.71 | -$0.07 | -914.3% | $32.5M |
| May 1, 2025 | -$0.25 | -$0.06 | -316.7% | $34.8M |
| Mar 6, 2025 | -$0.43 | -$0.05 | -760.0% | $43.8M |
| Nov 5, 2024 | -$0.05 | -$0.06 | +16.7% | $41.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 9.55× | — | — | Bottom 25% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.81% | — | — | Bottom 14% |
| Earnings yield | -7.92% | — | — | Bottom 19% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -5.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -7.9%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -10.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -33.2%
- RSI (14)
- 38.0
- Relative volume
- 1.73×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 56.1%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 5th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 3.34
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.38
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -70.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -75.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2022 | Dec 29, 2022 | -95.0% | 179 days | Not yet recovered |
| Dec 7, 2021 | Feb 11, 2022 | -54.0% | 46 days | 36 days (Apr 5, 2022) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.27B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$0.21
- Revenue (TTM)
- $131.6M
- 52-week range
- $2.58 – $9.39
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $145.6M | $155.0M | $155.2M | $158.2M | $127.7M |
| Gross profit | $34.1M | $43.0M | $40.6M | $45.2M | $28.5M |
| Operating income | -$78.5M | -$110.5M | -$39.0M | -$133.4M | -$83.4M |
| Net income | -$123.6M | -$111.4M | -$70.7M | -$295.5M | -$293.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.15 | -$0.95 | -$0.40 | -$1.27 | -$0.82 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.5M | $43.8M | $34.8M | $32.5M | $33.1M | $27.3M | $34.4M | $36.7M |
| Net income | -$12.2M | -$146.5M | -$62.0M | -$228.6M | $2.5M | -$5.8M | -$56.8M | -$25.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.05 | -$0.59 | -$0.25 | -$0.71 | -$0.03 | -$0.01 | -$0.12 | -$0.05 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$19.8M | -$48.9M | -$18.3M | -$38.1M | -$42.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$645,000 | -$769,000 | -$3.8M | -$11.1M | -$4.4M |
| Free cash flow | -$20.4M | -$49.7M | -$22.1M | -$49.2M | -$46.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | -$100.9M | $45.5M | $55.6M | $707.2M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $36.3M
- Total assets
- $841.3M
- Total liabilities
- $71.0M
- Total debt
- $22.8M
- Net debt
- -$13.5M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $770.3M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 150,124,548
- Days to cover
- 9.98
- Change vs previous report
- +3.2%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.