Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. BWIN
$31.77 +0.00% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $2.58B
Strong growthStrong trendHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -5.3% from 6.5% a year earlier.
- Net debt is 40.5× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 72 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 22%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 47%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 17%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 17%
- Gross marginBottom 4%
- Operating marginBottom 9%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 22%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 2%
- Interest coverBottom 8%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 9%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 27%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 27%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 43%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 44%
- 6-month returnTop 5%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 35%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 14%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 11%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 39%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 43%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 30%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 9%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 13%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 35%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 2%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 15.1% | 20.5% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 26.6% | 9.6% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 6.5% | -5.3% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | -7.3% | 2.5% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 20.5% | 15.1% | ↑ | Top 22% |
| Gross margin | 9.6% | 26.6% | ↓ | Bottom 4% |
| Operating margin | -5.3% | 6.5% | ↓ | Bottom 9% |
| Net margin | -4.7% | -1.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.5% | -7.3% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -1.0% | — | Bottom 17% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 15.8% | — | Top 47% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -2.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 4.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +24.1 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 40.53×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -0.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 4.93%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.93%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +1.5%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +4.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +2.7%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.4%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $31.00
- Target vs current price
- -2.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 9
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 33%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | +2.0% | -5.4% | +1.9% | +7.8% | — |
| May 4, 2026 | -1.6% | -0.3% | -8.4% | -8.4% | +28.1% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | +6.9% | +9.1% | +30.2% | +25.4% | +20.2% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +3.3% | +2.7% | +18.2% | +17.7% | -2.2% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | +2.4% | +1.2% | -12.3% | -12.2% | -35.2% |
| May 6, 2025 | +0.0% | +0.5% | -3.3% | -0.8% | -9.5% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | +0.0% | +1.4% | -0.3% | +16.6% | -1.7% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | -2.9% | +1.9% | +1.7% | +8.4% | -9.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $0.48 | $0.47 | +2.0% | $492.9M |
| May 4, 2026 | $0.63 | $0.64 | -1.6% | $532.2M |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.31 | $0.29 | +6.9% | $347.3M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.31 | $0.30 | +3.3% | $365.4M |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.42 | $0.41 | +2.4% | $374.3M |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.65 | $0.65 | +0.0% | $408.5M |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $0.27 | $0.27 | +0.0% | $323.4M |
| Nov 4, 2024 | $0.33 | $0.34 | -2.9% | $336.0M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 15.8× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 82.2× | — | — | Bottom 27% |
| EV / Sales | 2.92× | — | — | Top 43% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.70% | — | — | Bottom 27% |
| Earnings yield | -3.67% | — | — | Bottom 9% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 17
- Days above the 200-day average
- 72
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +6.7%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +2.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +4.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +30.3%
- RSI (14)
- 57.0
- Relative volume
- 0.48×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 43.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 24th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.52
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.13
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -2.2%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -70.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | Feb 13, 2026 | -70.2% | 331 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.58B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$1.17
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.74B
- 52-week range
- $15.88 – $32.71
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $560.0M | $969.5M | $1.21B | $1.38B | $1.50B |
| Gross profit | $159.9M | $250.0M | $296.4M | $344.2M | $192.0M |
| Operating income | -$31.6M | -$31.1M | -$42.6M | $60.6M | $109.4M |
| Net income | -$30.6M | -$41.8M | -$90.1M | -$24.5M | -$33.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.64 | -$0.74 | -$1.50 | -$0.39 | -$0.50 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $336.0M | $323.4M | $408.5M | $374.3M | $365.4M | $347.3M | $532.2M | $492.9M |
| Net income | -$8.4M | -$20.2M | $13.9M | -$3.2M | -$18.7M | -$25.9M | $2.3M | -$39.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.13 | -$0.31 | $0.20 | -$0.05 | -$0.27 | -$0.37 | $0.03 | -$0.56 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $40.1M | -$2.5M | $44.6M | $102.2M | -$29.4M |
| Capital expenditure | -$5.3M | -$22.0M | -$21.4M | -$41.0M | -$39.5M |
| Free cash flow | $34.8M | -$24.4M | $23.3M | $61.1M | -$68.9M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | -$385,000 | -$264,000 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $269.4M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $184.5M
- Total assets
- $6.17B
- Total liabilities
- $4.75B
- Total debt
- $2.69B
- Net debt
- $2.50B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $884.4M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 12,717,049
- Days to cover
- 3.07
- Change vs previous report
- +10.7%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.