Stocks · Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF
$115.01 +0.41% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $17.67B
High qualityInexpensive vs sectorLow risk
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $13.49, up 76.1% year over year.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 180 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $7.74B, up 20.0% from a year earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Basic Materials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth50Neutral
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 20%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 19%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 42%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 8%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 33%
Quality92Exceptional
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 12%
- Gross marginTop 18%
- Operating marginTop 9%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 45%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 46%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 23%
- Interest coverTop 19%
Value93Exceptional
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 4%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 10%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 2%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 43%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 32%
Momentum74Positive
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 14%
- 6-month returnBottom 41%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 23%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 30%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 25%
Revisions21Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 27%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 21%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 37%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 15%
Stability94Exceptional
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 43%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 1%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 23%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 20.9% | 20.0% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 46.6% | 76.1% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 38.7% | 42.5% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 33.4% | 38.1% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 27.7% | 24.7% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 20.0% | 20.9% | ↓ | Top 20% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 76.1% | 46.6% | ↑ | Top 19% |
| Gross margin | 42.5% | 38.7% | ↑ | Top 18% |
| Operating margin | 38.1% | 33.4% | ↑ | Top 9% |
| Net margin | 27.1% | 20.2% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 24.7% | 27.7% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 16.5% | — | Top 12% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -14.1% | — | Bottom 8% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.42×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.6%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +2.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.29×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 17.3×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 1.78%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -2.30%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.53%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -5.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -7.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +15.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $128.63
- Target vs current price
- +11.8%
- Analysts with a rating
- 42
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 50%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | -16.0% | -1.2% | -0.3% | +14.8% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +51.7% | -6.5% | +1.8% | -8.9% | -2.2% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | +23.0% | +2.2% | +2.5% | +31.5% | +33.8% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | +1.4% | +0.6% | -1.0% | -6.2% | +6.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | -5.2% | -3.0% | -10.6% | -8.6% | -9.2% |
| May 7, 2025 | +25.0% | -1.6% | +7.0% | +11.8% | +11.7% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | +22.7% | +0.7% | -5.8% | -8.2% | +3.3% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | +13.6% | +0.5% | +6.4% | +8.3% | +10.9% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $4.73 | $5.63 | -16.0% | $2.22B |
| May 6, 2026 | $3.99 | $2.63 | +51.7% | $1.99B |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $2.99 | $2.43 | +23.0% | $1.87B |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $2.19 | $2.16 | +1.4% | $1.66B |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $2.37 | $2.50 | -5.2% | $1.89B |
| May 7, 2025 | $1.85 | $1.48 | +25.0% | $1.66B |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.89 | $1.54 | +22.7% | $1.52B |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.34 | $1.18 | +13.6% | $1.37B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 8.5× | 10.7× | 29th | Top 4% |
| P/E (forward) | 7.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 4.8× | — | — | Top 2% |
| EV / Sales | 2.43× | — | — | Bottom 43% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.81% | — | — | Top 10% |
| Earnings yield | 11.73% | — | — | Top 4% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 5.0× – 42.9× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +33.1%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +76.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -20.1%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 180
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +3.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +4.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -7.6%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +2.2%
- RSI (14)
- 35.6
- Relative volume
- 0.73×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 39.4%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 69th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- -0.34
- Correlation with S&P 500
- -0.14
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -17.4%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -29.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2022 | Jun 1, 2023 | -49.1% | 191 days | 695 days (Mar 11, 2026) |
| Apr 18, 2022 | Jun 23, 2022 | -26.8% | 46 days | 43 days (Aug 24, 2022) |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Jun 23, 2026 | -25.8% | 58 days | 50 days (Sep 2, 2026) |
| Jun 8, 2021 | Aug 19, 2021 | -22.0% | 51 days | 26 days (Sep 27, 2021) |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -19.3% | 14 days | 13 days (Nov 16, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $17.67B
- P/E (TTM)
- 8.5
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $13.49
- Revenue (TTM)
- $7.74B
- Dividend yield
- 1.83%
- 52-week range
- $75.42 – $141.96
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.54B | $11.19B | $6.63B | $5.94B | $7.08B |
| Gross profit | $2.36B | $5.89B | $2.65B | $2.06B | $2.72B |
| Operating income | $2.14B | $5.60B | $2.36B | $1.75B | $2.37B |
| Net income | $917.0M | $3.35B | $1.52B | $1.22B | $1.46B |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.24 | $16.39 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B | $1.52B | $1.66B | $1.89B | $1.66B | $1.87B | $1.99B | $2.22B |
| Net income | $276.0M | $328.0M | $312.0M | $386.0M | $353.0M | $404.0M | $615.0M | $727.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.55 | $1.89 | $1.85 | $2.37 | $2.19 | $2.59 | $3.98 | $4.73 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $2.87B | $3.85B | $2.76B | $2.27B | $2.75B |
| Capital expenditure | -$524.0M | -$462.0M | -$501.0M | -$518.0M | -$950.0M |
| Free cash flow | $2.35B | $3.39B | $2.26B | $1.75B | $1.80B |
| Dividends paid | -$260.0M | -$306.0M | -$311.0M | -$364.0M | -$326.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$475.0M | -$1.24B | -$578.0M | -$1.51B | -$1.38B |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.48B
- Total assets
- $15.10B
- Total liabilities
- $6.18B
- Total debt
- $3.61B
- Net debt
- $1.13B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $5.75B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | $0.60 | Aug 31, 2026 |
| May 15, 2026 | $0.50 | May 29, 2026 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $0.50 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | $0.50 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | $0.50 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| May 15, 2025 | $0.50 | May 30, 2025 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | $0.50 | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | $0.50 | Nov 29, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 9,773,355
- Days to cover
- 3.34
- Change vs previous report
- +17.2%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jun 18, 2015
- 5-for-1