Stocks · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Firefly Aerospace Inc. FLY
$23.32 +2.06% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $3.83B
Expensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 11, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count rose 12.6% in a year.
- The stock is 60% below its highest close of the past year.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 7%
- Gross marginBottom 27%
- Operating marginBottom 5%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 33%
- Interest coverBottom 6%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 19%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 16%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 9%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 4%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 20%
- 6-month returnBottom 11%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 32%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 11%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 42%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 15%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 34%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 18%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 21%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 14%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 19%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 1%
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 19.3% | — | Bottom 27% | |
| Operating margin | -116.4% | — | Bottom 5% | |
| Net margin | -126.6% | — | — | |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -113.8% | — | — | |
| Return on invested capital | -22.3% | — | Bottom 7% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -6.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 16.1%
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -34.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.13%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -30.79%
- Shareholder yield
- -30.66%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +12.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 11, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 3
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 6
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -54.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 5
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $37.83
- Target vs current price
- +62.2%
- Analysts with a rating
- 9
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 78%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | +18.1% | +2.3% | +5.5% | -11.1% | — |
| May 4, 2026 | +8.0% | -1.3% | +17.4% | +30.9% | -47.2% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | +20.8% | -1.0% | +18.7% | +90.5% | +37.4% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | -266.5% | -4.3% | +3.3% | +11.3% | +29.2% |
| Sep 22, 2025 | -1161.9% | +9.6% | -20.4% | -41.7% | -55.0% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | -$0.42 | -$0.51 | +18.1% | $117.7M |
| May 4, 2026 | -$0.46 | -$0.50 | +8.0% | $80.9M |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -$0.38 | -$0.48 | +20.8% | $57.7M |
| Nov 12, 2025 | -$1.50 | -$0.41 | -266.5% | $30.8M |
| Sep 22, 2025 | -$5.30 | -$0.42 | -1161.9% | $15.5M |
| Jul 11, 2025 | -$0.47 | -$0.43 | -8.3% | $55.9M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 11.93× | — | — | Bottom 4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -8.52% | — | — | Bottom 16% |
| Earnings yield | -10.25% | — | — | Bottom 19% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 7
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +2.7%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -16.2%
- RSI (14)
- 53.1
- Relative volume
- 1.49×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 75.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 4.29
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.49
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -60.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -72.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2025 | Nov 21, 2025 | -72.2% | 75 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $3.83B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$2.39
- Revenue (TTM)
- $287.0M
- 52-week range
- $16.00 – $62.17
| FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $55.2M | $60.8M | $159.9M |
| Gross profit | $26.6M | -$11.4M | $24.9M |
| Operating income | -$131.9M | -$209.5M | -$246.6M |
| Net income | -$135.5M | -$231.1M | -$298.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.09 | -$1.85 | -$2.21 |
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.3M | $21.1M | $55.9M | $15.5M | $30.8M | $57.7M | $80.9M | $117.7M |
| Net income | -$52.8M | -$53.5M | -$60.1M | -$63.8M | -$133.4M | -$41.1M | -$96.7M | -$92.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.40 | -$0.41 | -$0.50 | -$0.56 | -$0.95 | -$0.26 | -$0.61 | -$0.57 |
| FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$93.4M | -$157.7M | -$204.9M |
| Capital expenditure | -$77.2M | -$32.7M | -$32.8M |
| Free cash flow | -$170.7M | -$190.3M | -$237.8M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $0 | $1.17B |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $635.3M
- Total assets
- $1.64B
- Total liabilities
- $416.3M
- Total debt
- $53.4M
- Net debt
- -$406.4M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.22B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 11, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 11,105,681
- Days to cover
- 5.08
- Change vs previous report
- +2.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.