Stocks · Industrials · Waste Management
GFL Environmental Inc. GFL
$41.98 +3.83% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $14.65B
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $-0.70, down 107.7% year over year.
- Net debt is 5.5× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The diluted share count fell 5.7% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 28%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 10%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 41%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 26%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 38%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 31%
- Gross marginBottom 29%
- Operating marginBottom 41%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 25%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 14%
- Interest coverBottom 29%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 28%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 33%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 37%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 31%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 33%
- 6-month returnBottom 38%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 34%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 16%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 27%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 22%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 16%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 18%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 40%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 20%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 22%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 3%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 14%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0.3% | 2.9% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -93.8% | -107.7% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 19.7% | 20.0% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 5.1% | 4.8% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 2.9% | 0.3% | ↑ | Bottom 28% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -107.7% | -93.8% | ↓ | Bottom 10% |
| Gross margin | 20.0% | 19.7% | ↑ | Bottom 29% |
| Operating margin | 4.8% | 5.1% | ↓ | Bottom 41% |
| Net margin | -3.3% | 53.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 1.5% | — | Bottom 31% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -0.7% | — | Bottom 26% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -7.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.1%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +19.7 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 5.55×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 0.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.21%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 4.27%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.49%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -5.7%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -3.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +20.5%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $58.00
- Target vs current price
- +38.2%
- Analysts with a rating
- 18
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 78%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | -13.3% | +2.8% | +7.4% | +4.0% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +20.0% | +0.5% | -7.9% | -13.2% | -1.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | +85.7% | +2.1% | +0.4% | +0.5% | -13.8% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | -10.5% | +0.5% | -0.3% | +2.8% | -2.2% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | +0.0% | -2.4% | +3.0% | +2.4% | -5.3% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | -250.0% | -0.0% | +2.2% | -0.4% | -3.4% |
| Feb 24, 2025 | +23.1% | -0.7% | -2.5% | +3.2% | +7.5% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | +4.3% | +3.8% | +5.4% | +11.5% | +5.2% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.14 | $0.16 | -13.3% | $1.37B |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.06 | $0.05 | +20.0% | $1.18B |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $0.26 | $0.14 | +85.7% | $1.23B |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.17 | $0.19 | -10.5% | $1.21B |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.19 | $0.19 | +0.0% | $1.23B |
| Apr 30, 2025 | -$0.06 | $0.04 | -250.0% | $1.10B |
| Feb 24, 2025 | $0.16 | $0.13 | +23.1% | $1.38B |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.24 | $0.23 | +4.3% | $1.48B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 52.3× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.7× | — | — | Top 37% |
| EV / Sales | 3.53× | — | — | Bottom 31% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.31% | — | — | Bottom 33% |
| Earnings yield | -1.67% | — | — | Bottom 28% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 4.5× – 91.7× since Mar 31, 2025. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -10.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -107.7%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +1185.8%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 1
- Days above the 200-day average
- 1
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +3.3%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +0.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +3.1%
- RSI (14)
- 50.6
- Relative volume
- 2.08×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 29.4%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 52th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.26
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.16
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -10.2%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -35.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2021 | Oct 14, 2022 | -42.9% | 227 days | 463 days (Aug 20, 2024) |
| May 5, 2025 | May 29, 2026 | -35.0% | 268 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 13, 2020 | Oct 30, 2020 | -15.6% | 13 days | 8 days (Nov 11, 2020) |
| Apr 9, 2021 | Jul 19, 2021 | -15.6% | 69 days | 36 days (Sep 8, 2021) |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Apr 7, 2025 | -12.0% | 7 days | 5 days (Apr 14, 2025) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $14.65B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$0.70
- Revenue (TTM)
- $6.97B
- Dividend yield
- 0.19%
- 52-week range
- $33.33 – $47.01
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.14B | $6.76B | $7.52B | $6.14B | $6.62B |
| Gross profit | $473.7M | $797.6M | $1.27B | $1.13B | $1.37B |
| Operating income | -$103.4M | $39.9M | $261.1M | $222.8M | $346.0M |
| Net income | -$606.8M | -$311.8M | $45.4M | -$722.7M | $3.83B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.83 | -$1.08 | $0.13 | -$2.11 | $9.99 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.55B | $1.99B | $1.56B | $1.68B | $1.69B | $1.69B | $1.64B | $1.95B |
| Net income | $110.4M | -$189.1M | $3.41B | $276.3M | $114.3M | $33.9M | -$215.7M | -$159.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.23 | -$0.52 | $8.67 | $0.70 | $0.28 | $0.06 | -$0.60 | -$0.44 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $897.9M | $1.10B | $980.4M | $1.54B | $1.32B |
| Capital expenditure | -$647.2M | -$780.1M | -$1.06B | -$1.19B | -$1.14B |
| Free cash flow | $250.7M | $316.2M | -$74.7M | $347.2M | $174.6M |
| Dividends paid | -$17.9M | -$20.7M | -$25.0M | -$28.2M | -$31.1M |
| Net share buybacks | $372.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$2.97B |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $192.2M
- Total assets
- $21.54B
- Total liabilities
- $13.99B
- Total debt
- $10.15B
- Net debt
- $9.95B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $7.36B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | $0.02 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | $0.02 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | $0.02 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $0.02 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | $0.02 | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Jul 14, 2025 | $0.02 | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Apr 14, 2025 | $0.02 | Apr 30, 2025 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | $0.01 | Jan 31, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 17,368,589
- Days to cover
- 6.30
- Change vs previous report
- -21.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.