Stocks · Energy · Coal

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. HCC

$89.35 +0.30% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $4.72B

Strong growth

Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026

Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.

Three things to know

  1. Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $4.16, up 439.1% year over year.
  2. Operating margin widened to 13.6% from 2.0% a year earlier.
  3. Revenue over the last four quarters was $1.68B, up 37.5% from a year earlier, accelerating from 11.3% a quarter earlier.

PromtFinance scores

Each score is a percentile within the Energy sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.

Growth95Exceptional

How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.

  • Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 15%
  • EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 5%
  • Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 28%
  • Revenue growth accelerationTop 5%
Quality65Positive

Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.

  • Return on invested capitalTop 43%
  • Gross marginTop 38%
  • Operating marginTop 49%
  • Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 29%
  • Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 23%
  • Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 14%
  • Interest coverTop 12%
Value34Weak

How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.

  • Earnings yieldTop 49%
  • Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 35%
  • EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 40%
  • Sales / enterprise valueBottom 40%
  • P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 40%
Momentum60Neutral

Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.

  • 12-month return excluding last monthTop 19%
  • 6-month returnTop 48%
  • 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 31%
  • Distance from 52-week highTop 47%
  • Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 45%
Revisions38Weak

Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).

  • Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 17%
  • Consecutive EPS beatsTop 50%
  • Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 19%
  • Upside to consensus price targetBottom 25%
Stability51Neutral

Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.

  • Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 49%
  • Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 40%
  • Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 14%
  • Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 14%

What changed

Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).

MeasureBeforeNow
Revenue growth (YoY)11.3%37.5%↑
EPS growth (YoY)30.2%439.1%↑
Gross margin6.9%41.8%↑
Operating margin2.0%13.6%↑
FCF margin-18.4%0.4%↑

Fundamental momentum

MeasureNow (TTM)Year / quarter beforeSector rank
Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)37.5%11.3%↑Top 15%
EPS growth (TTM, YoY)439.1%30.2%↑Top 5%
Gross margin41.8%6.9%↑Top 38%
Operating margin13.6%2.0%↑Top 49%
Net margin13.1%3.3%↑—
Free-cash-flow margin0.4%-18.4%↑—
Return on invested capital8.1%—Top 43%
Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR-9.0%—Bottom 28%

Quality of earnings and balance sheet

Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
1.37×
Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
-2.8%
Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
1.1%
Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
+22.3 pp
Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
-0.15×
Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
17.0×

Shareholder returns

Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
0.37%
Net buyback yield (TTM)
0.00%
Shareholder yield
0.37%
Share count change, 1 year
+0.5%
Share count change, 3-year CAGR
+0.5%

Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.

Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).

Earnings and expectations

Earnings momentum

Consecutive EPS beats
1
Beats in the last 8 reports
4 of 8
Average EPS surprise, last 4
+55.6%
Average 2-day reaction, last 8
+0.2%
Positive 20 days after report
5 of 8

Analysts

Consensus price target
$100.00
Target vs current price
+11.9%
Analysts with a rating
24
Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
33%
Consensus rating
Hold

How the stock reacted to recent reports

Report dateEPS surprise2 days5 days20 days60 days
Aug 5, 2026+17.9%+3.4%+20.0%+30.3%—
Apr 30, 2026-2.8%-0.2%-2.8%+16.2%-10.4%
Feb 12, 2026-29.0%-5.0%-5.7%-5.8%-5.3%
Nov 5, 2025+236.3%+1.9%+27.2%+27.9%+37.8%
Aug 6, 2025+139.3%+1.3%+17.8%+2.8%+18.6%
Apr 30, 2025-220.0%-1.7%-2.2%-4.1%+17.2%
Feb 13, 2025-69.4%+2.7%-8.6%-8.3%-13.9%
Oct 30, 2024+6.7%-0.8%+9.1%+10.6%-16.2%

Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.

Earnings history

Report dateEPSEstimateSurpriseRevenue
Aug 5, 2026$1.65$1.40+17.9%$509.7M
Apr 30, 2026$1.37$1.41-2.8%$458.6M
Feb 12, 2026$0.44$0.62-29.0%$384.0M
Nov 5, 2025$0.70-$0.51+236.3%$327.9M
Aug 6, 2025$0.11-$0.28+139.3%$297.5M
Apr 30, 2025-$0.16-$0.05-220.0%$299.9M
Feb 13, 2025$0.15$0.49-69.4%$297.5M
Oct 30, 2024$0.80$0.75+6.7%$327.7M

Valuation in context

MultipleNow5-year median5-year percentileSector rank (cheapness)
P/E (trailing)21.5×8.2×74thTop 49%
P/E (forward)14.0×———
EV / EBITDA10.2×——Bottom 40%
EV / Sales2.77×——Bottom 40%
Free-cash-flow yield0.13%——Bottom 35%
Earnings yield4.66%——Top 49%

P/E over the past five years

Range 2.6× – 98.3× since Dec 31, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.

What moved the stock over the past year

Price return, 1 year
+35.5%
Earnings per share growth (TTM)
+439.1%
Change in P/E multiple
-71.5%

Most of the move came from earnings growth.

Technical state

Trend checklist

  • ✗ Price above 20-day average
  • ✗ Price above 50-day average
  • ✗ Price above 200-day average
  • ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
  • ✗ MACD histogram positive

Trend quality

Days above the 50-day average
0
Days above the 200-day average
0
50-day average slope (20 days)
+5.7%
200-day average slope (20 days)
+1.6%
Distance from 50-day average
-5.5%
Distance from 200-day average
-1.1%
RSI (14)
41.6
Relative volume
0.57×

Risk and drawdowns

Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
40.4%
Volatility vs own 5-year history
13th percentile · Low for this stock
Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
1.19
Correlation with S&P 500
0.37
Current drawdown from 1-year high
-19.0%
Maximum drawdown, 3 years
-45.6%

Largest declines in the past six years

From peakTo lowDeclineLengthRecovery
Nov 7, 2024Apr 4, 2025-45.6%100 days149 days (Nov 6, 2025)
Feb 24, 2021May 10, 2021-38.4%52 days85 days (Sep 9, 2021)
Mar 10, 2022Sep 23, 2022-36.8%136 days212 days (Jul 31, 2023)
Jul 1, 2024Sep 10, 2024-29.6%49 days41 days (Nov 6, 2024)
Jun 2, 2026Jul 7, 2026-29.5%23 daysNot yet recovered

Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.

Financial statements

Market cap
$4.72B
P/E (TTM)
21.5
EPS, diluted (TTM)
$4.16
Revenue (TTM)
$1.68B
Dividend yield
0.36%
52-week range
$61.87 – $111.42
FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.06B$1.74B$1.68B$1.53B$1.31B
Gross profit$334.6M$885.8M$601.5M$1.48B$111.2M
Operating income$243.8M$801.4M$541.4M$254.9M$45.6M
Net income$150.9M$641.3M$478.6M$250.6M$57.0M
EPS (diluted)$2.93$12.40$9.20$4.79$1.08
Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue$327.7M$297.5M$298.2M$298.8M$327.9M$384.1M$458.6M$509.7M
Net income$41.8M$1.1M-$8.2M$5.6M$36.6M$23.0M$72.3M$87.4M
EPS (diluted)$0.80$0.02-$0.16$0.11$0.70$0.44$1.37$1.65
FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Operating cash flow$351.5M$841.9M$701.1M$367.4M$229.2M
Capital expenditure-$57.9M-$208.7M-$491.7M-$457.2M-$320.3M
Free cash flow$293.6M$633.2M$209.4M-$89.8M-$91.0M
Dividends paid-$10.5M-$79.7M-$61.1M-$43.8M-$17.8M
Net share buybacks$0$0$0$0-$9.4M

Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.

Cash and short-term investments
$322.5M
Total assets
$2.90B
Total liabilities
$610.2M
Total debt
$235.8M
Net debt
-$66.5M
Shareholders’ equity
$2.29B

As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).

Dividends

Ex-dateAmountPaid
Aug 10, 2026$0.08Aug 17, 2026
May 1, 2026$0.08May 7, 2026
Feb 23, 2026$0.08Mar 2, 2026
Nov 7, 2025$0.08Nov 14, 2025
Aug 8, 2025$0.08Aug 15, 2025
May 5, 2025$0.08May 12, 2025
Feb 24, 2025$0.08Mar 3, 2025
Nov 5, 2024$0.08Nov 12, 2024

Short interest

Shares sold short
3,820,493
Days to cover
7.12
Change vs previous report
-5.3%

FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.