Stocks · Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Hillman Solutions Corp. HLMN
$7.04 +1.44% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.38B
Weak trendInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.22, up 101.9% year over year.
- At 32.3× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the lowest P/E of the company's past five years.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 43%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 13%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 33%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 35%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 45%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 40%
- Gross marginTop 16%
- Operating marginBottom 49%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 7%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 45%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 32%
- Interest coverBottom 39%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 42%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 37%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 11%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 32%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 6%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 25%
- 6-month returnBottom 28%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 23%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 34%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 15%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 41%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 39%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 48%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 16%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 49%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 35%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 42%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 32%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 5.5% | 6.5% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 113.6% | 101.9% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 47.8% | 45.8% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 6.1% | 7.0% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 4.8% | 3.8% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 6.5% | 5.5% | ↑ | Bottom 43% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 101.9% | 113.6% | ↓ | Top 13% |
| Gross margin | 45.8% | 47.8% | ↓ | Top 16% |
| Operating margin | 7.0% | 6.1% | ↑ | Bottom 49% |
| Net margin | 2.6% | 1.4% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 3.8% | 4.8% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.8% | — | Bottom 40% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 1.5% | — | Bottom 35% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -3.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +3.1 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.98×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 2.1×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 2.20%
- Shareholder yield
- 2.20%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.9%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.2%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 27, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +2.8%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.7%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $13.00
- Target vs current price
- +84.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 7
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 57%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | +1.4% | +5.6% | +17.2% | -1.3% | — |
| Apr 27, 2026 | -12.5% | -0.3% | -10.8% | -16.5% | -9.2% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | +0.0% | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.2% | -24.9% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +22.2% | -2.8% | -5.6% | -6.7% | +1.0% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | +13.3% | +19.1% | +19.1% | +20.9% | +18.8% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | +0.0% | -7.4% | -2.5% | +0.1% | +6.7% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | -9.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -11.5% | -19.3% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | +0.0% | +3.4% | +5.2% | +6.2% | -9.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | $0.17 | $0.17 | +1.4% | $442.3M |
| Apr 27, 2026 | $0.07 | $0.08 | -12.5% | $370.1M |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +0.0% | $365.1M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.22 | $0.18 | +22.2% | $424.9M |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.17 | $0.15 | +13.3% | $402.8M |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +0.0% | $359.3M |
| Feb 18, 2025 | $0.10 | $0.11 | -9.1% | $349.6M |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +0.0% | $393.3M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 32.3× | 84.6× | 0th | Top 42% |
| P/E (forward) | 12.0× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.4× | — | — | Top 11% |
| EV / Sales | 1.34× | — | — | Top 32% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.42% | — | — | Top 37% |
| Earnings yield | 3.10% | — | — | Top 42% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 43.6× – 325.3× since Jun 29, 2024. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -22.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +101.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -51.3%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.3%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.8%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -10.6%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -15.4%
- RSI (14)
- 39.0
- Relative volume
- 0.66×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 43.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 73th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.98
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.36
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -34.5%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -42.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2021 | Oct 30, 2023 | -50.9% | 556 days | Not yet recovered |
| Feb 12, 2021 | Mar 29, 2021 | -10.1% | 30 days | 19 days (Apr 26, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.38B
- P/E (TTM)
- 32.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.22
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.60B
- 52-week range
- $6.66 – $10.85
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.43B | $1.49B | $1.48B | $1.47B | $1.55B |
| Gross profit | $566.4M | $639.8M | $647.5M | $707.9M | $615.2M |
| Operating income | $10.3M | $39.9M | $60.9M | $88.8M | $117.5M |
| Net income | -$38.3M | -$16.4M | -$9.6M | $17.3M | $40.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.28 | -$0.08 | -$0.05 | $0.09 | $0.20 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $393.3M | $349.6M | $359.3M | $402.8M | $424.9M | $365.1M | $370.1M | $442.3M |
| Net income | $7.4M | -$1.2M | -$317,000 | $15.8M | $23.2M | $1.6M | -$4.7M | $21.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.04 | -$0.01 | -$0.00 | $0.08 | $0.12 | $0.01 | -$0.02 | $0.11 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$110.3M | $119.0M | $238.0M | $183.3M | $105.2M |
| Capital expenditure | -$51.6M | -$69.6M | -$65.8M | -$85.2M | -$70.1M |
| Free cash flow | -$161.8M | $49.4M | $172.3M | $98.1M | $35.1M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $363.3M | $4.4M | $2.2M | $9.7M | -$11.2M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $35.8M
- Total assets
- $2.38B
- Total liabilities
- $1.15B
- Total debt
- $801.0M
- Net debt
- $765.2M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.23B
As of Jun 27, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 5,861,346
- Days to cover
- 2.58
- Change vs previous report
- +22.2%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.