Stocks · Financial Services · Financial - Conglomerates
Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH
$38.45 +1.37% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $2.20B
Next earnings report: Oct 22, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 12 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +35.9%).
- The diluted share count fell 8.9% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- Net debt is 3.7× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 35%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 48%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 6%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 18%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 39%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 44%
- Gross marginTop 16%
- Operating marginBottom 29%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 11%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 22%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 32%
- Interest coverBottom 36%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 46%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 12%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 45%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 26%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 40%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 41%
- 6-month returnTop 47%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 36%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 23%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 48%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 8%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 6%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 48%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 31%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 27%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 33%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 36%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 32%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 2.3% | 2.9% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 34.0% | 21.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 75.5% | 79.8% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 13.5% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 26.3% | -4.0% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 2.9% | 2.3% | ↑ | Bottom 35% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 21.1% | 34.0% | ↓ | Top 48% |
| Gross margin | 79.8% | 75.5% | ↑ | Top 16% |
| Operating margin | 13.5% | 12.5% | ↑ | Bottom 29% |
| Net margin | 10.2% | 9.3% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -4.0% | 26.3% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 1.0% | — | Bottom 44% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 6.3% | — | Bottom 18% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- -0.29×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 1.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +5.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.71×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 0.7×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 2.07%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 9.55%
- Shareholder yield
- 11.62%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -8.9%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -3.8%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 24, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 12
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +35.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 7 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $42.00
- Target vs current price
- +9.2%
- Analysts with a rating
- 11
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 45%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | +28.6% | -0.5% | +3.6% | +0.9% | — |
| Apr 23, 2026 | +18.5% | +1.1% | +0.2% | -0.7% | +1.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | +50.0% | +1.0% | +7.7% | +6.6% | +0.6% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | +46.5% | -0.5% | -0.4% | +0.6% | +8.6% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | +39.0% | -2.5% | -5.4% | +5.4% | -1.0% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | +132.1% | +1.2% | +2.0% | +3.3% | +8.3% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | +96.4% | +0.6% | +8.9% | +7.2% | -2.2% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | +24.3% | -0.1% | +1.5% | +2.4% | -6.3% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | $0.63 | $0.49 | +28.6% | $315.8M |
| Apr 23, 2026 | $0.64 | $0.54 | +18.5% | $300.5M |
| Jan 29, 2026 | $0.69 | $0.46 | +50.0% | $329.9M |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $0.74 | $0.51 | +46.5% | $330.2M |
| Jul 24, 2025 | $0.57 | $0.41 | +39.0% | $303.3M |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.65 | $0.28 | +132.1% | $318.5M |
| Jan 30, 2025 | $0.55 | $0.28 | +96.4% | $338.0M |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.46 | $0.37 | +24.3% | $305.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 14.2× | 14.7× | 43th | Top 46% |
| P/E (forward) | 15.1× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.6× | — | — | Top 45% |
| EV / Sales | 1.90× | — | — | Top 26% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -2.86% | — | — | Bottom 12% |
| Earnings yield | 7.02% | — | — | Top 46% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 5.6× – 21.5× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +16.6%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +21.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +5.8%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 290
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -0.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +2.5%
- RSI (14)
- 50.2
- Relative volume
- 0.96×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 16.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 0th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.54
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.37
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -3.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -23.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2021 | Sep 29, 2022 | -37.6% | 391 days | 840 days (Feb 5, 2026) |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Mar 18, 2026 | -14.0% | 26 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.20B
- P/E (TTM)
- 14.2
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.70
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.59B
- Dividend yield
- 2.08%
- 52-week range
- $30.78 – $40.41
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.85B | $1.35B | $1.50B | $1.54B | $1.63B |
| Gross profit | $1.80B | $1.21B | $1.11B | $1.12B | $1.27B |
| Operating income | $504.1M | $156.1M | $149.1M | $154.3M | $221.1M |
| Net income | $374.5M | $113.1M | $109.6M | $113.2M | $165.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.61 | $1.60 | $1.69 | $1.74 | $2.64 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $411.5M | $338.0M | $406.1M | $389.8M | $418.1M | $411.2M | $372.7M | $389.0M |
| Net income | $29.7M | $35.5M | $42.1M | $36.1M | $45.8M | $41.6M | $37.8M | $36.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.46 | $0.55 | $0.65 | $0.57 | $0.74 | $0.69 | $0.64 | $0.63 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $765.6M | $1.19B | $443.0M | $273.9M | -$78.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$24.8M | -$9.8M | -$8.5M | -$7.1M | -$16.8M |
| Free cash flow | $740.9M | $1.18B | $434.5M | $266.8M | -$95.1M |
| Dividends paid | -$39.0M | -$43.0M | -$41.6M | -$44.3M | -$45.4M |
| Net share buybacks | -$123.6M | -$442.3M | -$5.1M | -$19.9M | -$184.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.73B
- Total assets
- $16.00B
- Total liabilities
- $13.84B
- Total debt
- $1.58B
- Net debt
- $826.5M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.13B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 24, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | $0.22 | Aug 21, 2026 |
| May 8, 2026 | $0.20 | May 22, 2026 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $0.20 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | $0.18 | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | $0.18 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.18 | May 22, 2025 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $0.18 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | $0.17 | Nov 22, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 2,554,196
- Days to cover
- 10.15
- Change vs previous report
- +12.5%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.