Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Mercury General Corporation MCY
$102.27 +1.99% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $5.66B
Strong growthHigh qualityInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $16.92, up 140.3% year over year.
- Operating margin widened to 18.3% from 8.2% a year earlier.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 13 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +56.1%).
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 38%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 7%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 29%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 39%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 44%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 3%
- Gross marginBottom 17%
- Operating marginBottom 42%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 33%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 19%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 21%
- Interest coverTop 4%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 6%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 13%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 6%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 8%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 10%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 32%
- 6-month returnTop 27%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 29%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 47%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 27%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 5%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 5%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 9%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 4%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 40%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 25%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 29%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 21%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 9.7% | 10.0% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 194.0% | 140.3% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 14.7% | 44.8% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 18.3% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 14.2% | 19.9% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 10.0% | 9.7% | ↑ | Top 38% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 140.3% | 194.0% | ↓ | Top 7% |
| Gross margin | 44.8% | 14.7% | ↑ | Bottom 17% |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 8.2% | ↑ | Bottom 42% |
| Net margin | 14.8% | 6.8% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 19.9% | 14.2% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 34.0% | — | Top 3% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 18.0% | — | Top 39% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.42×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -3.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -46.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -0.58×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 40.1×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 1.24%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.00%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.24%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.0%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.0%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 13
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +56.1%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $90.00
- Target vs current price
- -12.0%
- Analysts with a rating
- 7
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 14%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | +39.1% | -0.6% | -0.3% | -4.9% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | +62.8% | +2.1% | +3.7% | +3.1% | +11.8% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | +43.0% | +2.9% | -10.3% | -3.2% | +8.8% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +79.5% | +4.6% | +12.8% | +20.1% | +14.9% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | +33.5% | +0.4% | +2.5% | +9.3% | +14.4% |
| May 6, 2025 | +42.8% | +0.7% | +3.3% | +11.5% | +18.2% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | +43.3% | -1.2% | +4.4% | +6.5% | +12.4% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | +120.9% | +0.8% | -1.9% | +14.6% | -23.9% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $3.52 | $2.53 | +39.1% | $1.56B |
| May 5, 2026 | $3.50 | $2.15 | +62.8% | $1.55B |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $3.66 | $2.56 | +43.0% | $1.43B |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $3.86 | $2.15 | +79.5% | $1.58B |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $2.67 | $2.00 | +33.5% | $1.48B |
| May 6, 2025 | -$2.29 | -$4.00 | +42.8% | $1.39B |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $2.78 | $1.94 | +43.3% | $1.37B |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $2.54 | $1.15 | +120.9% | $1.53B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 6.0× | 9.9× | 7th | Top 6% |
| P/E (forward) | 7.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 3.9× | — | — | Top 6% |
| EV / Sales | 0.78× | — | — | Top 8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 22.31% | — | — | Top 13% |
| Earnings yield | 16.54% | — | — | Top 6% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 5.9× – 23.2× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +22.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +140.3%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -36.8%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 339
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -2.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -1.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +4.8%
- RSI (14)
- 52.8
- Relative volume
- 0.88×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 23.2%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 18th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.87
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.40
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -8.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -40.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2021 | Oct 4, 2023 | -59.2% | 607 days | 261 days (Oct 17, 2024) |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Jan 13, 2025 | -40.3% | 28 days | 166 days (Sep 11, 2025) |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 23, 2026 | -12.9% | 4 days | 38 days (Apr 17, 2026) |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Nov 3, 2025 | -12.3% | 21 days | 6 days (Nov 11, 2025) |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | -11.9% | 56 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $5.66B
- P/E (TTM)
- 6.0
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $16.92
- Revenue (TTM)
- $6.34B
- Dividend yield
- 1.24%
- 52-week range
- $74.29 – $113.06
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.99B | $3.64B | $4.63B | $5.48B | $5.99B |
| Gross profit | $599.8M | -$373.8M | $403.3M | $932.9M | $2.03B |
| Operating income | $299.3M | -$670.7M | $99.4M | $574.9M | $663.6M |
| Net income | $247.9M | -$512.7M | $96.3M | $468.0M | $541.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.48 | -$9.26 | $1.74 | $8.45 | $9.77 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.53B | $1.37B | $1.39B | $1.48B | $1.58B | $1.54B | $1.54B | $1.68B |
| Net income | $230.9M | $101.1M | -$108.3M | $166.5M | $280.4M | $202.5M | $190.4M | $263.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.17 | $1.82 | -$1.96 | $3.01 | $5.06 | $3.66 | $3.44 | $4.76 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $501.6M | $352.6M | $453.0M | $1.04B | $1.09B |
| Capital expenditure | -$41.4M | -$35.5M | -$36.8M | -$46.1M | -$58.4M |
| Free cash flow | $460.1M | $317.1M | $416.2M | $991.0M | $1.03B |
| Dividends paid | -$140.2M | -$105.5M | -$70.3M | -$70.3M | -$70.3M |
| Net share buybacks | $215,000 | $0 | $0 | $752,000 | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.07B
- Total assets
- $10.54B
- Total liabilities
- $7.71B
- Total debt
- $962.1M
- Net debt
- -$738.7M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.84B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | $0.32 | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | $0.32 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | $0.32 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | $0.32 | Dec 24, 2025 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | $0.32 | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | $0.32 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | $0.32 | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | $0.32 | Dec 26, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,255,710
- Days to cover
- 3.92
- Change vs previous report
- -7.5%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Oct 10, 1997
- 2-for-1
- Sep 14, 1992
- 2-for-1