Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Markel Corporation MKL
$1,737.18 +0.64% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $21.52B
Weak trendInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count fell 11.8% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $17.35B, up 7.9% from a year earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 45%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 36%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 36%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 37%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 45%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 35%
- Gross marginBottom 41%
- Operating marginBottom 39%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 40%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 37%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 35%
- Interest coverTop 10%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 14%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 37%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 12%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 14%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 28%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 22%
- 6-month returnBottom 11%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 24%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 22%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 9%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 28%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 17%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 3%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 39%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 46%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 30%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 36%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 35%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.7% | 7.9% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 2.3% | 9.1% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 56.9% | 62.3% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 17.0% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 12.7% | 12.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 7.9% | 7.7% | ↑ | Top 45% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 9.1% | 2.3% | ↑ | Bottom 36% |
| Gross margin | 62.3% | 56.9% | ↑ | Bottom 41% |
| Operating margin | 17.0% | 18.3% | ↓ | Bottom 39% |
| Net margin | 13.2% | 13.9% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 12.2% | 12.7% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.8% | — | Top 35% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 12.0% | — | Bottom 37% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.02×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -0.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -17.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.29×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 14.5×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.32%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.32%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -11.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -5.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 5 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -0.3%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $1,950.00
- Target vs current price
- +12.3%
- Analysts with a rating
- 15
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 0%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | -36.3% | -1.2% | -7.4% | -11.3% | — |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -18.4% | +0.7% | -7.6% | -2.0% | +3.5% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | +24.7% | +0.8% | +3.2% | +0.1% | -13.1% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +28.6% | -0.6% | +7.8% | +13.0% | +10.6% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | +2.0% | -0.6% | -4.0% | -3.7% | -6.5% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | +53.4% | -0.1% | +3.0% | +4.4% | +11.4% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | +7.9% | +1.2% | +5.8% | +3.7% | -0.7% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | -19.1% | +0.1% | -0.4% | +13.5% | +16.7% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $19.51 | $30.64 | -36.3% | $5.19B |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $21.61 | $26.47 | -18.4% | $2.82B |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $34.45 | $27.62 | +24.7% | $4.22B |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $30.90 | $24.02 | +28.6% | $4.39B |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $25.46 | $24.97 | +2.0% | $4.41B |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $25.72 | $16.77 | +53.4% | $3.33B |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $20.51 | $19.00 | +7.9% | $4.02B |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $17.34 | $21.43 | -19.1% | $4.50B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 9.6× | 10.5× | 32th | Top 14% |
| P/E (forward) | 17.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.8× | — | — | Top 12% |
| EV / Sales | 1.29× | — | — | Top 14% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.84% | — | — | Top 37% |
| Earnings yield | 10.47% | — | — | Top 14% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 6.4× – 265.6× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -7.9%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +9.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -7.9%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.9%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.6%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -4.6%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -9.9%
- RSI (14)
- 38.3
- Relative volume
- 1.29×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 19.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 34th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.54
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.38
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -20.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -21.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | Sep 26, 2022 | -28.9% | 127 days | 219 days (Aug 10, 2023) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Sep 30, 2026 | -21.9% | 189 days | Not yet recovered |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Apr 7, 2025 | -18.5% | 41 days | 150 days (Nov 10, 2025) |
| Sep 19, 2023 | Nov 2, 2023 | -15.7% | 32 days | 124 days (May 2, 2024) |
| Nov 16, 2020 | Jan 27, 2021 | -11.7% | 48 days | 6 days (Feb 4, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $21.52B
- P/E (TTM)
- 9.6
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $181.86
- Revenue (TTM)
- $17.35B
- 52-week range
- $1,704.17 – $2,207.59
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.92B | $11.81B | $15.71B | $16.75B | $16.59B |
| Gross profit | $5.89B | $3.41B | $8.08B | $9.27B | $11.51B |
| Operating income | $3.13B | -$151.6M | $2.65B | $3.64B | $2.73B |
| Net income | $2.42B | -$216.3M | $2.00B | $2.75B | $2.11B |
| EPS (diluted) | $176.51 | -$23.72 | $146.98 | $199.32 | $169.22 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.50B | $3.84B | $3.33B | $4.41B | $4.39B | $4.22B | $3.55B | $5.20B |
| Net income | $905.0M | $549.2M | $121.7M | $657.1M | $751.3M | $576.8M | -$212.3M | $1.17B |
| EPS (diluted) | $66.25 | $38.74 | $12.08 | $49.67 | $59.25 | $48.75 | -$18.90 | $92.76 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $2.27B | $2.71B | $2.79B | $2.59B | $2.76B |
| Capital expenditure | -$145.2M | -$254.7M | -$258.6M | -$255.0M | -$206.9M |
| Free cash flow | $2.13B | $2.45B | $2.53B | $2.34B | $2.55B |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$206.5M | -$290.8M | -$445.5M | -$572.7M | -$429.5M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $5.76B
- Total assets
- $71.26B
- Total liabilities
- $52.26B
- Total debt
- $4.37B
- Net debt
- $944.5M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $19.01B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 278,703
- Days to cover
- 4.78
- Change vs previous report
- +7.5%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Sep 11, 1989
- 6-for-5