Stocks · Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
The Mosaic Company MOS
$21.07 -2.23% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $6.70B
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.19, down 93.6% year over year.
- The shares trade at 110.9× trailing earnings, higher than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Net debt is 3.3× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Basic Materials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth6Very weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 49%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 15%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 1%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 7%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 17%
Quality29Very weak
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 34%
- Gross marginBottom 19%
- Operating marginBottom 28%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 8%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 22%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 25%
- Interest coverBottom 30%
Value37Weak
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 40%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 7%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 10%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 26%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 6%
Momentum13Very weak
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 12%
- 6-month returnBottom 28%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 11%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 30%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 26%
Revisions11Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 23%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 50%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 12%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 39%
Stability53Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 43%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 41%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 32%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 25%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 9.0% | 5.5% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 101.7% | -93.6% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 15.3% | 11.5% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | 1.4% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 0.0% | -8.0% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 5.5% | 9.0% | ↓ | Top 49% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -93.6% | 101.7% | ↓ | Bottom 15% |
| Gross margin | 11.5% | 15.3% | ↓ | Bottom 19% |
| Operating margin | 1.4% | 7.1% | ↓ | Bottom 28% |
| Net margin | 0.4% | 8.4% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -8.0% | 0.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 0.2% | — | Bottom 34% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -14.3% | — | Bottom 7% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -1.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -22.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.26×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 0.7×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 4.18%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.00%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.18%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -1.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -29.7%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $26.44
- Target vs current price
- +25.5%
- Analysts with a rating
- 49
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 31%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | +7.7% | +4.1% | +7.6% | +10.6% | — |
| May 11, 2026 | -79.6% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -3.7% | +5.5% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | -54.2% | -0.8% | -4.2% | -16.2% | -25.5% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +7.4% | -2.6% | -5.0% | -10.6% | +0.9% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | -23.9% | +0.5% | -8.5% | -6.4% | -17.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | +9.0% | -0.5% | +7.7% | +20.8% | +17.7% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -15.1% | -0.5% | -4.3% | +7.5% | +38.8% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | -37.0% | -7.7% | -7.9% | -7.9% | -2.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.13 | $0.12 | +7.7% | $2.82B |
| May 11, 2026 | $0.05 | $0.24 | -79.6% | $3.00B |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $0.22 | $0.48 | -54.2% | $2.97B |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.04 | $0.97 | +7.4% | $3.45B |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.51 | $0.67 | -23.9% | $3.01B |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.49 | $0.45 | +9.0% | $2.62B |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.45 | $0.53 | -15.1% | $2.82B |
| Nov 12, 2024 | $0.34 | $0.54 | -37.0% | $2.81B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 110.9× | 9.2× | 95th | Bottom 40% |
| P/E (forward) | 46.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.2× | — | — | Top 10% |
| EV / Sales | 1.03× | — | — | Top 26% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -14.14% | — | — | Bottom 7% |
| Earnings yield | 0.90% | — | — | Bottom 40% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 4.8× – 123.2× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -37.7%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -93.6%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +1075.7%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +4.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -10.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -14.0%
- RSI (14)
- 31.5
- Relative volume
- 0.93×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 39.3%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 48th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.83
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.30
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -40.5%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -48.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | Jun 10, 2026 | -74.6% | 1040 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jun 1, 2021 | Jul 19, 2021 | -23.3% | 33 days | 53 days (Oct 1, 2021) |
| Oct 20, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | -20.8% | 29 days | 31 days (Jan 14, 2022) |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Nov 4, 2020 | -15.2% | 20 days | 13 days (Nov 23, 2020) |
| Mar 15, 2021 | Mar 24, 2021 | -11.8% | 7 days | 22 days (Apr 26, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $6.70B
- P/E (TTM)
- 110.9
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.19
- Revenue (TTM)
- $11.88B
- Dividend yield
- 4.18%
- 52-week range
- $19.80 – $36.00
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.36B | $19.13B | $13.70B | $11.12B | $12.05B |
| Gross profit | $3.20B | $5.76B | $2.21B | $1.51B | $1.82B |
| Operating income | $2.47B | $4.79B | $1.34B | $621.5M | $1.05B |
| Net income | $1.63B | $3.58B | $1.16B | $174.9M | $540.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.27 | $10.06 | $3.50 | $0.55 | $1.70 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.81B | $2.82B | $2.62B | $3.01B | $3.45B | $2.60B | $3.00B | $2.82B |
| Net income | $122.2M | $169.0M | $238.1M | $410.7M | $411.4M | $162.2M | -$257.6M | -$272.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.38 | $0.53 | $0.75 | $1.29 | $1.29 | $0.55 | -$0.79 | -$0.86 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $2.19B | $3.94B | $2.41B | $1.30B | $824.8M |
| Capital expenditure | -$1.29B | -$1.25B | -$1.40B | -$1.25B | -$1.36B |
| Free cash flow | $898.4M | $2.69B | $1.00B | $47.4M | -$534.6M |
| Dividends paid | -$103.7M | -$197.7M | -$351.6M | -$270.7M | -$280.4M |
| Net share buybacks | -$410.9M | -$1.67B | -$756.0M | -$235.4M | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $294.0M
- Total assets
- $24.64B
- Total liabilities
- $13.01B
- Total debt
- $5.86B
- Net debt
- $5.56B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $11.46B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | $0.22 | Sep 24, 2026 |
| May 21, 2026 | $0.22 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | $0.22 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | $0.22 | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | $0.22 | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Jun 5, 2025 | $0.22 | Jun 19, 2025 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | $0.22 | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Dec 5, 2024 | $0.21 | Dec 19, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 30,890,497
- Days to cover
- 3.54
- Change vs previous report
- +7.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Dec 1, 1995
- 2-for-1