Stocks · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials
MP Materials Corp. MP
$46.97 +1.91% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $8.36B
Weak trendExpensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin widened to -33.1% from -67.0% a year earlier.
- Net debt is 8.2× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 5 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +75.8%).
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Basic Materials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 15%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 3%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 11%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 27%
- Gross marginBottom 4%
- Operating marginBottom 10%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 12%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 7%
- Interest coverBottom 15%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 36%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 18%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 23%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 6%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 15%
- 6-month returnTop 50%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 15%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 15%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 26%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 10%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 12%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 13%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 22%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 19%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 35%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 47%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 7%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.7% | 26.1% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | -23.3% | -4.6% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | -67.0% | -33.1% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | -78.8% | -165.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 26.1% | 17.7% | ↑ | Top 15% |
| Gross margin | -4.6% | -23.3% | ↑ | Bottom 4% |
| Operating margin | -33.1% | -67.0% | ↑ | Bottom 10% |
| Net margin | -19.9% | -41.9% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -165.2% | -78.8% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -1.9% | — | Bottom 27% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -24.8% | — | Bottom 3% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 0.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 13.6%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +22.9 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 8.18×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -2.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.61%
- Shareholder yield
- 0.61%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +8.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.1%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 5
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +75.8%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $80.70
- Target vs current price
- +71.8%
- Analysts with a rating
- 14
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 93%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +0.6% | -0.9% | +12.9% | +14.2% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | +206.5% | -4.8% | -12.3% | -9.9% | -39.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | +53.9% | +2.3% | +5.0% | -8.4% | +5.3% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | +42.2% | -5.4% | +8.7% | +12.5% | +17.6% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +34.0% | +5.3% | +11.7% | -4.9% | -3.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | -20.0% | +1.0% | -10.8% | +9.8% | +177.0% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | -33.3% | +0.8% | +3.4% | +16.6% | -7.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | +7.7% | +1.5% | -2.8% | +1.7% | +19.7% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | -$0.01 | -$0.01 | +0.6% | $108.5M |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.03 | -$0.03 | +206.5% | $90.6M |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.09 | $0.06 | +53.9% | $52.7M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -$0.10 | -$0.17 | +42.2% | $53.6M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | -$0.13 | -$0.20 | +34.0% | $57.4M |
| May 8, 2025 | -$0.12 | -$0.10 | -20.0% | $60.8M |
| Feb 20, 2025 | -$0.12 | -$0.09 | -33.3% | $61.0M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -$0.12 | -$0.13 | +7.7% | $62.9M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 1922.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 143.5× | — | — | Bottom 23% |
| EV / Sales | 29.04× | — | — | Bottom 6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -6.03% | — | — | Bottom 18% |
| Earnings yield | -0.73% | — | — | Bottom 36% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 16.5× – 131.1× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.7%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.6%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -7.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -17.2%
- RSI (14)
- 41.6
- Relative volume
- 0.82×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 64.4%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 48th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.97
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.20
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -52.4%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -61.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2022 | Aug 7, 2024 | -82.0% | 588 days | 234 days (Jul 16, 2025) |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Jul 29, 2026 | -61.4% | 197 days | Not yet recovered |
| Mar 2, 2021 | May 13, 2021 | -50.2% | 51 days | 163 days (Jan 4, 2022) |
| Jan 4, 2022 | Feb 3, 2022 | -33.0% | 21 days | 34 days (Mar 24, 2022) |
| Dec 22, 2020 | Jan 4, 2021 | -25.6% | 7 days | 29 days (Feb 16, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $8.36B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$0.34
- Revenue (TTM)
- $305.4M
- 52-week range
- $37.81 – $100.25
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $332.0M | $527.5M | $253.4M | $203.9M | $224.4M |
| Gross profit | $231.3M | $416.9M | $105.0M | -$66.8M | -$57.6M |
| Operating income | $165.3M | $327.4M | -$17.7M | -$169.4M | -$145.1M |
| Net income | $135.0M | $289.0M | $24.3M | -$65.4M | -$85.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.73 | $1.52 | $0.14 | -$0.57 | -$0.50 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $62.9M | $61.0M | $60.8M | $57.4M | $53.6M | $52.7M | $90.6M | $108.5M |
| Net income | -$25.5M | -$22.3M | -$22.6M | -$30.9M | -$41.8M | $9.4M | -$8.0M | -$20.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.16 | -$0.14 | -$0.14 | -$0.19 | -$0.24 | $0.05 | -$0.04 | -$0.11 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $102.0M | $343.5M | $62.7M | $13.3M | -$155.8M |
| Capital expenditure | -$123.9M | -$326.6M | -$261.9M | -$186.4M | -$172.4M |
| Free cash flow | -$21.9M | $16.9M | -$199.2M | -$173.1M | -$328.1M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$3.3M | -$18.4M | -$7.2M | -$225.1M | $905.5M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.45B
- Total assets
- $3.73B
- Total liabilities
- $1.77B
- Total debt
- $934.6M
- Net debt
- $505.5M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.96B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 33,572,608
- Days to cover
- 7.09
- Change vs previous report
- +4.5%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.