Stocks · Industrials · Industrial - Distribution
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. MSM
$130.12 +1.26% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $7.27B
Strong trendLow risk
Next earnings report: Oct 22, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- At 31.4× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the highest P/E of the company's past five years.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 134 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $4.14, up 16.9% year over year.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth34Weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 35%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 40%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 33%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 32%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 41%
Quality79Positive
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 18%
- Gross marginTop 23%
- Operating marginTop 44%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 39%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 39%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 36%
- Interest coverTop 15%
Value38Weak
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 41%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 49%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 47%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 47%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 1%
Momentum91Exceptional
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 32%
- 6-month returnTop 13%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 23%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 3%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 10%
Revisions15Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 49%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 39%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 18%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 19%
Stability92Exceptional
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 18%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 28%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 36%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 2.2% | 4.4% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -1.8% | 16.9% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 40.9% | 40.8% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 8.5% | 8.8% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 7.0% | 5.6% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 4.4% | 2.2% | ↑ | Bottom 35% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 16.9% | -1.8% | ↑ | Top 40% |
| Gross margin | 40.8% | 40.9% | ↓ | Top 23% |
| Operating margin | 8.8% | 8.5% | ↑ | Top 44% |
| Net margin | 5.9% | 5.3% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.6% | 7.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 12.3% | — | Top 18% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 0.7% | — | Bottom 32% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.33×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -3.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.2%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -3.8 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 1.11×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 15.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 2.66%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.03%
- Shareholder yield
- 2.69%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.1%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through May 30, 2026 (filed Jul 1, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +5.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $145.00
- Target vs current price
- +11.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 29
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 34%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | +11.7% | +3.7% | +0.0% | +1.7% | +1.5% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | -2.0% | -0.8% | +3.6% | +9.2% | +28.1% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | +4.2% | -4.5% | -0.9% | +10.6% | +6.3% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | +6.9% | +3.1% | -3.3% | -2.6% | -1.7% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | +4.9% | +6.2% | +6.8% | +2.7% | +4.6% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | +5.7% | -5.2% | -5.2% | -4.3% | +7.2% |
| Jan 8, 2025 | +17.8% | +3.5% | +0.2% | +1.1% | -10.8% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | -4.6% | -3.8% | +1.5% | +0.6% | +2.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | $1.43 | $1.28 | +11.7% | $1.05B |
| Apr 1, 2026 | $0.82 | $0.84 | -2.0% | $917.8M |
| Jan 7, 2026 | $0.99 | $0.95 | +4.2% | $965.7M |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $1.09 | $1.02 | +6.9% | $978.2M |
| Jul 1, 2025 | $1.08 | $1.03 | +4.9% | $971.1M |
| Apr 3, 2025 | $0.72 | $0.68 | +5.7% | $891.7M |
| Jan 8, 2025 | $0.86 | $0.73 | +17.8% | $928.5M |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $1.03 | $1.08 | -4.6% | $952.3M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 31.4× | 17.4× | 100th | Top 41% |
| P/E (forward) | 28.1× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 17.9× | — | — | Bottom 47% |
| EV / Sales | 1.98× | — | — | Top 47% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.03% | — | — | Bottom 49% |
| Earnings yield | 3.18% | — | — | Top 41% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 12.2× – 29.8× since May 29, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +42.6%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +16.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +16.8%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 5
- Days above the 200-day average
- 134
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +3.6%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +6.7%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +23.5%
- RSI (14)
- 68.3
- Relative volume
- 1.09×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 23.5%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 46th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.80
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.46
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- +0.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -33.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2023 | Apr 7, 2025 | -33.2% | 371 days | 271 days (May 6, 2026) |
| May 14, 2021 | Sep 26, 2022 | -24.7% | 344 days | 176 days (Jun 8, 2023) |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Jan 29, 2021 | -11.2% | 44 days | 20 days (Mar 1, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $7.27B
- P/E (TTM)
- 31.4
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $4.14
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.91B
- Dividend yield
- 2.67%
- 52-week range
- $78.80 – $132.33
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.24B | $3.69B | $4.01B | $3.82B | $3.77B |
| Gross profit | $1.33B | $1.56B | $1.64B | $1.57B | $1.54B |
| Operating income | $341.7M | $475.3M | $492.0M | $406.0M | $313.7M |
| Net income | $216.9M | $339.8M | $343.2M | $258.6M | $199.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.87 | $6.06 | $6.11 | $4.58 | $3.57 |
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $952.3M | $928.5M | $891.7M | $971.1M | $978.2M | $965.7M | $917.8M | $1.05B |
| Net income | $55.7M | $46.6M | $39.3M | $56.8M | $56.5M | $51.8M | $41.8M | $80.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.99 | $0.83 | $0.70 | $1.02 | $1.01 | $0.93 | $0.76 | $1.44 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $224.5M | $246.2M | $699.6M | $410.7M | $333.7M |
| Capital expenditure | -$53.7M | -$61.4M | -$92.5M | -$99.4M | -$92.8M |
| Free cash flow | $170.7M | $184.8M | $607.1M | $311.3M | $240.9M |
| Dividends paid | -$167.3M | -$167.4M | -$176.7M | -$187.3M | -$189.7M |
| Net share buybacks | -$37.5M | $11.6M | -$62.7M | -$173.7M | -$26.9M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $74.1M
- Total assets
- $2.50B
- Total liabilities
- $1.08B
- Total debt
- $555.4M
- Net debt
- $481.3M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.42B
As of May 30, 2026 (filed Jul 1, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | $0.87 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | $0.87 | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | $0.87 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | $0.87 | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Jul 9, 2025 | $0.85 | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Apr 9, 2025 | $0.85 | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | $0.85 | Jan 29, 2025 |
| Nov 13, 2024 | $0.85 | Nov 27, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 2,456,031
- Days to cover
- 4.09
- Change vs previous report
- +6.5%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- May 26, 1998
- 2-for-1