Stocks · Financial Services · Asset Management
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. NCDL
$11.02 -1.43% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $544.2M
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.95, down 53.7% year over year.
- Operating margin narrowed to 45.7% from 54.8% a year earlier.
- Net debt is 17.1× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 3%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 12%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 13%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 4%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 32%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 38%
- Gross marginBottom 34%
- Operating marginTop 10%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 16%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 20%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 6%
- Interest coverBottom 48%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 29%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 14%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 34%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 8%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 41%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 19%
- 6-month returnBottom 7%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 16%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 18%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 9%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 28%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 43%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 34%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 43%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 44%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 27%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 38%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 6%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -26.5% | -29.4% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -43.1% | -53.7% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 58.4% | 58.3% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 54.8% | 45.7% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 24.8% | 81.7% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -29.4% | -26.5% | ↓ | Bottom 3% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -53.7% | -43.1% | ↓ | Bottom 12% |
| Gross margin | 58.3% | 58.4% | ↓ | Bottom 34% |
| Operating margin | 45.7% | 54.8% | ↓ | Top 10% |
| Net margin | 33.8% | 55.8% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 81.7% | 24.8% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.2% | — | Top 38% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 62.8% | — | Top 4% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 2.41×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -3.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +8.4 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 17.12×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 0.9×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 15.89%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.49%
- Shareholder yield
- 16.39%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +17.3%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 2 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -0.5%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $12.50
- Target vs current price
- +13.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 5
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 60%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +5.0% | +0.2% | -1.0% | +0.8% | — |
| May 14, 2026 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -2.0% | -3.3% | -4.6% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | +2.3% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.9% | -3.9% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | -6.5% | -1.6% | -2.1% | +0.3% | -7.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +0.0% | +0.8% | +1.9% | -0.7% | -9.3% |
| May 8, 2025 | -7.0% | -4.2% | -0.7% | +3.4% | +2.6% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -5.1% | -1.9% | -3.0% | -2.1% | -12.4% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -1.7% | -0.6% | -0.6% | +0.0% | +0.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.41 | $0.39 | +5.0% | $44.3M |
| May 14, 2026 | $0.41 | $0.42 | -2.9% | $46.3M |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.44 | $0.43 | +2.3% | $50.0M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.43 | $0.46 | -6.5% | $40.0M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.46 | $0.46 | +0.0% | $42.4M |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.53 | $0.57 | -7.0% | $53.6M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.56 | $0.59 | -5.1% | $29.0M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.58 | $0.59 | -1.7% | $33.8M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 11.6× | 8.6× | 67th | Top 29% |
| P/E (forward) | 7.0× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.7× | — | — | Bottom 34% |
| EV / Sales | 11.76× | — | — | Bottom 8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 20.78% | — | — | Top 14% |
| Earnings yield | 8.65% | — | — | Top 29% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 7.1× – 25.5× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -19.4%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -53.7%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +68.6%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -2.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -2.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -9.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -15.6%
- RSI (14)
- 21.3
- Relative volume
- 0.93×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 22.0%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 57th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.57
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.39
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -26.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -39.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | Oct 2, 2026 | -39.0% | 630 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Mar 5, 2024 | -10.2% | 24 days | 12 days (Mar 21, 2024) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $544.2M
- P/E (TTM)
- 11.6
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.95
- Revenue (TTM)
- $138.4M
- Dividend yield
- 14.61%
- 52-week range
- $10.96 – $15.07
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.3M | $46.8M | $144.0M | $186.0M | $201.8M |
| Gross profit | $29.4M | $23.4M | $86.0M | $111.4M | $171.3M |
| Operating income | $27.3M | $17.3M | $76.8M | $116.5M | $143.7M |
| Net income | $27.3M | $17.3M | $75.9M | $116.3M | $65.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.12 | $0.74 | $2.27 | $2.15 | $1.30 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $56.0M | $48.3M | $53.6M | $38.2M | $40.0M | $36.7M | $28.7M | $33.1M |
| Net income | $36.6M | $29.5M | $27.4M | $16.0M | $18.7M | $15.9M | $8.7M | $3.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.67 | $0.54 | $0.53 | $0.32 | $0.38 | $0.32 | $0.18 | $0.07 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $41.3M | $25.1M | $73.0M | $136.4M | $194.2M |
| Capital expenditure | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Free cash flow | $41.3M | $25.1M | $73.0M | $136.4M | $194.2M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | -$63.2M | $0 | -$102.3M |
| Net share buybacks | $209.2M | $174.6M | $218.9M | $208.1M | -$65.7M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $5.0M
- Total assets
- $1.99B
- Total liabilities
- $1.14B
- Total debt
- $1.09B
- Net debt
- $1.08B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $849.0M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | $0.38 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | $0.38 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $0.40 | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $0.45 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $0.45 | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $0.45 | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $0.45 | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $0.10 | Apr 28, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 588,175
- Days to cover
- 3.10
- Change vs previous report
- +13.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.