Stocks · Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. NGVC
$30.61 +0.43% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $705.3M
Next earnings report: Nov 19, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 14 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +13.9%).
- Over the past year the stock returned -25.3%, behind the S&P 500 by 40.3 percentage points.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $1.34B, up 2.0% from a year earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Defensive sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth48Neutral
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 42%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 40%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 48%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 31%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 30%
Quality63Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 38%
- Gross marginBottom 41%
- Operating marginBottom 43%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 33%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 27%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 36%
- Interest coverTop 19%
Value75Positive
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 19%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 35%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 23%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 28%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 34%
Momentum56Neutral
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 17%
- 6-month returnTop 16%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 33%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 48%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 5%
Revisions90Exceptional
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 33%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 2%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 38%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 40%
Stability28Very weak
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 25%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 37%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 43%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 36%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 3.1% | 2.0% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 16.9% | 9.6% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 29.9% | 29.1% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 4.4% | 4.7% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 3.8% | 4.3% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 2.0% | 3.1% | ↓ | Bottom 42% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 9.6% | 16.9% | ↓ | Top 40% |
| Gross margin | 29.1% | 29.9% | ↓ | Bottom 41% |
| Operating margin | 4.7% | 4.4% | ↑ | Bottom 43% |
| Net margin | 3.5% | 3.3% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 4.3% | 3.8% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 8.8% | — | Top 38% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 6.9% | — | Top 31% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 2.21×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -8.4%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -19.1 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.72×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 23.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 1.86%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.18%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.68%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 14
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +13.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $40.00
- Target vs current price
- +30.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 16
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 56%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +27.3% | +1.6% | -14.1% | -15.5% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | +10.9% | +2.4% | +3.6% | +7.3% | +22.5% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | +6.5% | -0.1% | -8.6% | -2.6% | +9.3% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | +10.9% | -3.2% | -11.4% | -20.1% | -19.9% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +2.0% | -4.0% | +2.6% | +1.7% | -6.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | +33.3% | -7.0% | +1.2% | -10.0% | -24.3% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | +7.5% | +3.9% | +1.1% | -22.1% | +4.7% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | +39.3% | +4.2% | +32.9% | +12.6% | +36.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.66 | $0.52 | +27.3% | $334.7M |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.62 | $0.56 | +10.9% | $337.4M |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.49 | $0.46 | +6.5% | $335.6M |
| Nov 20, 2025 | $0.51 | $0.46 | +10.9% | $336.1M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.50 | $0.49 | +2.0% | $328.7M |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.56 | $0.42 | +33.3% | $335.8M |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.43 | $0.40 | +7.5% | $330.2M |
| Nov 21, 2024 | $0.39 | $0.28 | +39.3% | $322.7M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 14.9× | 14.3× | 57th | Top 19% |
| P/E (forward) | 14.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.0× | — | — | Top 23% |
| EV / Sales | 0.75× | — | — | Top 28% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.10% | — | — | Top 35% |
| Earnings yield | 6.73% | — | — | Top 19% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 10.5× – 32.0× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -25.3%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +9.6%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -20.0%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 11
- Days above the 200-day average
- 17
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.5%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +4.6%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +9.0%
- RSI (14)
- 59.2
- Relative volume
- 0.69×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 47.3%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 58th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.44
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.12
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -24.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -60.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 | -64.1% | 187 days | 373 days (Jul 16, 2024) |
| May 9, 2025 | Jan 7, 2026 | -60.3% | 166 days | Not yet recovered |
| Apr 5, 2021 | Sep 16, 2021 | -44.9% | 115 days | 103 days (Feb 11, 2022) |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Mar 10, 2025 | -29.2% | 21 days | 37 days (May 1, 2025) |
| Nov 25, 2020 | Dec 21, 2020 | -24.0% | 17 days | 23 days (Jan 26, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $705.3M
- P/E (TTM)
- 14.9
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.06
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.34B
- Dividend yield
- 1.96%
- 52-week range
- $23.47 – $41.07
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.09B | $1.14B | $1.24B | $1.33B |
| Gross profit | $292.2M | $304.9M | $326.9M | $364.8M | $397.9M |
| Operating income | $28.3M | $30.2M | $31.7M | $47.0M | $62.0M |
| Net income | $20.6M | $21.4M | $23.2M | $33.9M | $46.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.91 | $0.94 | $1.02 | $1.47 | $2.00 |
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $322.7M | $330.2M | $335.8M | $328.7M | $336.1M | $335.6M | $337.4M | $334.7M |
| Net income | $9.0M | $9.9M | $13.1M | $11.6M | $11.8M | $11.3M | $13.4M | $11.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.39 | $0.43 | $0.56 | $0.50 | $0.51 | $0.49 | $0.58 | $0.48 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $53.9M | $39.7M | $64.6M | $73.8M | $55.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$28.3M | -$31.4M | -$38.1M | -$38.7M | -$31.4M |
| Free cash flow | $25.6M | $8.2M | $26.5M | $35.1M | $23.9M |
| Dividends paid | -$51.5M | -$9.1M | -$9.1M | -$9.2M | -$11.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$340,000 | $0 | -$181,000 | -$1.4M | -$1.3M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $17.5M
- Total assets
- $687.7M
- Total liabilities
- $448.3M
- Total debt
- $321.2M
- Net debt
- $303.8M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $239.4M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | $0.15 | Sep 2, 2026 |
| May 18, 2026 | $0.15 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $0.15 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | $0.15 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | $0.12 | Sep 17, 2025 |
| May 27, 2025 | $0.12 | Jun 11, 2025 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | $0.12 | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | $0.12 | Dec 18, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 912,663
- Days to cover
- 6.22
- Change vs previous report
- +11.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.