Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. OSG
$4.60 +6.98% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $207.1M
Strong growthWeak trendHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 9, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $320.7M, up 212.8% from a year earlier, accelerating from 196.8% a quarter earlier.
- Operating margin widened to -24.3% from -116.7% a year earlier.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 2%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 4%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 4%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 6%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 5%
- Gross marginTop 11%
- Operating marginBottom 6%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 16%
- Interest coverBottom 5%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 3%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 5%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 6%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 9%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 4%
- 6-month returnBottom 20%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 6%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 4%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 27%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 2%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 17%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 38%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 1%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 4%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 31%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 196.8% | 212.8% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | -19.8% | 83.2% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | -116.7% | -24.3% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 53.8% | -19.4% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 212.8% | 196.8% | ↑ | Top 2% |
| Gross margin | 83.2% | -19.8% | ↑ | Top 11% |
| Operating margin | -24.3% | -116.7% | ↑ | Bottom 6% |
| Net margin | -44.0% | -677.9% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -19.4% | 53.8% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -11.5% | — | Bottom 5% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 67.3% | — | Top 4% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.8%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- -0.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -275.3 pp
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -6.2×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 7.00%
- Shareholder yield
- 7.00%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -5.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.3%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +100.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 3 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $14.00
- Target vs current price
- +204.3%
- Analysts with a rating
- 13
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 38%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | -700.0% | -0.4% | -18.0% | -21.0% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +1750.0% | -3.7% | +33.6% | +18.0% | +23.3% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | +90.5% | -2.4% | -7.4% | -17.6% | +0.9% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | +8.7% | +2.5% | +12.3% | -2.2% | -26.8% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +8.3% | -2.9% | -3.7% | +7.6% | -0.6% |
| May 12, 2025 | -85.7% | +1.7% | -2.1% | -17.5% | +4.0% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | -300.0% | -2.0% | -23.9% | -25.3% | -36.4% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | -675.0% | +0.8% | +7.1% | +12.7% | +0.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | -$0.04 | -$0.01 | -700.0% | $21.7M |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.37 | $0.02 | +1750.0% | $20.0M |
| Feb 23, 2026 | -$0.02 | -$0.21 | +90.5% | $18.3M |
| Nov 10, 2025 | -$0.21 | -$0.23 | +8.7% | $66.6M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | -$0.22 | -$0.24 | +8.3% | $55.0M |
| May 12, 2025 | -$0.13 | -$0.07 | -85.7% | $62.8M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | -$0.12 | $0.06 | -300.0% | $18.9M |
| Nov 12, 2024 | -$0.46 | $0.08 | -675.0% | $70.0M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 24.1× | — | — | — |
| EV / Sales | 0.88× | — | — | Top 9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -30.01% | — | — | Bottom 5% |
| Earnings yield | -79.13% | — | — | Bottom 3% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 1.4× – 206.8× since Jun 30, 2022. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -11.8%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -7.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -3.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -16.3%
- RSI (14)
- 52.3
- Relative volume
- 1.40×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 55.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 68th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.87
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.24
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -54.4%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -78.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2021 | Apr 10, 2026 | -78.6% | 1274 days | Not yet recovered |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Feb 1, 2021 | -20.5% | 33 days | 24 days (Mar 8, 2021) |
| Oct 5, 2020 | Oct 28, 2020 | -13.0% | 17 days | 8 days (Nov 9, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $207.1M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$3.64
- Revenue (TTM)
- $320.7M
- 52-week range
- $3.88 – $10.38
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $247.0M | $53.6M | $124.7M | $235.8M | $251.2M |
| Gross profit | $319.0M | $24.4M | $48.0M | $98.6M | $204.0M |
| Operating income | -$1.0M | -$35.7M | -$24.2M | -$59.8M | -$101.0M |
| Net income | -$17.0M | $521.2M | $3.6M | -$556.4M | -$240.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.61 | $11.31 | $0.18 | -$11.85 | -$5.93 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $70.0M | -$85.2M | $62.8M | $55.0M | $66.6M | $66.9M | $104.2M | $83.0M |
| Net income | -$27.5M | -$548.4M | -$46.4M | -$72.7M | -$112.6M | -$21.7M | $7.6M | -$14.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.58 | -$11.40 | -$1.22 | -$1.54 | -$2.34 | -$0.84 | -$0.13 | -$0.33 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -$131.0M | $70.4M | $200.0M | $762,000 | -$52.3M |
| Capital expenditure | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Free cash flow | -$131.0M | $70.4M | $200.0M | $762,000 | -$52.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$6.0M | -$14.2M | -$5.0M | -$11.7M | -$12.9M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $79.1M
- Total assets
- $1.64B
- Total liabilities
- $1.27B
- Total debt
- $155.5M
- Net debt
- $76.4M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $698.8M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,736,370
- Days to cover
- 3.09
- Change vs previous report
- +0.4%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Dec 13, 2000
- 3-for-2
- Sep 11, 1997
- 2-for-1