Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
The Progressive Corporation PGR
$210.31 -0.31% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $122.27B
Inexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 21, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 10.5× trailing earnings, lower than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $91.05B, up 10.5% from a year earlier, slowing from 13.9% a quarter earlier.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $19.94, up 12.3% year over year.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 37%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 41%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 30%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 29%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 29%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 5%
- Gross marginBottom 9%
- Operating marginBottom 38%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 34%
- Interest coverTop 3%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 20%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 23%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 18%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 15%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 8%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 17%
- 6-month returnTop 45%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 19%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 33%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 48%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 22%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 43%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 38%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 21%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 24%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 35%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 32%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 13.9% | 10.5% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 32.6% | 12.3% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 29.9% | 26.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 15.9% | 16.2% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 20.0% | 17.5% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 10.5% | 13.9% | ↓ | Top 37% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 12.3% | 32.6% | ↓ | Bottom 41% |
| Gross margin | 26.9% | 29.9% | ↓ | Bottom 9% |
| Operating margin | 16.2% | 15.9% | ↑ | Bottom 38% |
| Net margin | 12.8% | 12.7% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 17.5% | 20.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 21.7% | — | Top 5% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 20.9% | — | Top 29% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.40×
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.1%
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 49.8×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 6.66%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.97%
- Shareholder yield
- 7.64%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.6%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.2%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 3, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -2.5%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $222.62
- Target vs current price
- +5.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 42
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 38%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | +4.5% | -9.4% | -9.1% | -6.3% | — |
| Apr 15, 2026 | -0.8% | +2.4% | +5.5% | +0.9% | +17.4% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | +5.2% | +2.2% | -3.4% | -1.7% | -1.3% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | -18.8% | -5.8% | -7.8% | -8.5% | -10.5% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | +10.2% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +0.3% | +0.4% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -4.0% | +0.7% | -10.4% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | +14.3% | +0.6% | +1.2% | +11.6% | +8.2% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | -3.0% | -0.1% | -0.5% | +3.2% | -6.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | $4.85 | $4.64 | +4.5% | $21.08B |
| Apr 15, 2026 | $4.81 | $4.85 | -0.8% | $23.64B |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $4.67 | $4.44 | +5.2% | $19.51B |
| Oct 15, 2025 | $4.05 | $4.99 | -18.8% | $21.38B |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $4.88 | $4.43 | +10.2% | $20.08B |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $4.65 | $4.79 | -2.9% | $22.21B |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $4.08 | $3.57 | +14.3% | $18.11B |
| Oct 15, 2024 | $3.58 | $3.69 | -3.0% | $19.46B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 10.5× | 19.0× | 5th | Top 20% |
| P/E (forward) | 11.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.9× | — | — | Top 18% |
| EV / Sales | 1.34× | — | — | Top 15% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.05% | — | — | Top 23% |
| Earnings yield | 9.48% | — | — | Top 20% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 10.1× – 116.1× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -14.7%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +12.3%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -22.5%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 2
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -1.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +0.5%
- RSI (14)
- 46.9
- Relative volume
- 0.96×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 32.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 86th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.45
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.27
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -14.4%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -34.6%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | May 29, 2026 | -34.6% | 302 days | Not yet recovered |
| Apr 10, 2023 | Jul 13, 2023 | -23.0% | 65 days | 65 days (Oct 13, 2023) |
| Oct 12, 2020 | Feb 16, 2021 | -16.0% | 86 days | 51 days (Apr 29, 2021) |
| May 14, 2021 | Oct 14, 2021 | -16.0% | 106 days | 59 days (Jan 7, 2022) |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Jan 10, 2025 | -12.4% | 27 days | 26 days (Feb 19, 2025) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $122.27B
- P/E (TTM)
- 10.5
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $19.94
- Revenue (TTM)
- $91.05B
- Dividend yield
- 6.61%
- 52-week range
- $189.20 – $247.49
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.68B | $49.59B | $62.08B | $75.34B | $87.64B |
| Gross profit | $10.34B | $7.55B | $11.76B | $20.90B | $25.83B |
| Operating income | $4.21B | $922.0M | $4.90B | $10.71B | $14.22B |
| Net income | $3.35B | $722.0M | $3.90B | $8.48B | $11.31B |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.71B | $20.27B | $20.40B | $22.00B | $22.51B | $22.74B | $22.18B | $23.62B |
| Net income | $2.33B | $2.36B | $2.57B | $3.17B | $2.62B | $2.95B | $2.82B | $3.31B |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.97 | $4.01 | $4.37 | $5.40 | $4.45 | $5.02 | $4.80 | $5.67 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $7.76B | $6.85B | $10.64B | $15.12B | $17.55B |
| Capital expenditure | -$243.5M | -$292.0M | -$252.0M | -$285.0M | -$348.0M |
| Free cash flow | $7.52B | $6.56B | $10.39B | $14.83B | $17.20B |
| Dividends paid | -$3.75B | -$234.0M | -$234.0M | -$674.0M | -$2.87B |
| Net share buybacks | -$223.0M | -$99.0M | -$140.7M | -$134.0M | -$166.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $94.76B
- Total assets
- $127.83B
- Total liabilities
- $92.47B
- Total debt
- $8.39B
- Net debt
- $8.39B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $4.91B
As of Aug 31, 2026 (filed Sep 18, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | $0.10 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | $0.10 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | $0.10 | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Jan 2, 2026 | $13.60 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Oct 2, 2025 | $0.10 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Jul 3, 2025 | $0.10 | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Apr 3, 2025 | $0.10 | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | $4.60 | Jan 16, 2025 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 6,263,238
- Days to cover
- 3.39
- Change vs previous report
- +3.7%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- May 19, 2006
- 4-for-1
- Apr 23, 2002
- 3-for-1
- Dec 9, 1992
- 3-for-1
- May 27, 1986
- 9-for-4
- May 28, 1985
- 3-for-2