Stocks · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Post Holdings, Inc. POST
$72.56 -0.37% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $3.29B
Weak trendInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 19, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count fell 17.8% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 14 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +14.2%).
- Net debt is 4.4× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Defensive sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 35%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 43%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 32%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 16%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 31%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 40%
- Gross marginBottom 37%
- Operating marginTop 36%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 10%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 43%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 20%
- Interest coverBottom 27%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 14%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 7%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 9%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 49%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 31%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 28%
- 6-month returnBottom 13%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 25%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 30%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 22%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 31%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 2%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 25%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 19%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 40%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 34%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 12%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 20%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.2% | 6.2% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 5.7% | -7.5% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 26.9% | 26.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 10.6% | 10.1% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 5.5% | 6.6% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 6.2% | 7.2% | ↓ | Top 35% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -7.5% | 5.7% | ↓ | Bottom 43% |
| Gross margin | 26.9% | 26.9% | ↓ | Bottom 37% |
| Operating margin | 10.1% | 10.6% | ↓ | Top 36% |
| Net margin | 3.5% | 4.6% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 6.6% | 5.5% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 5.4% | — | Bottom 40% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 11.7% | — | Top 16% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.4%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -5.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 4.40×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 2.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 36.21%
- Shareholder yield
- 36.21%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -17.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -9.2%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 14
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +14.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +0.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $112.00
- Target vs current price
- +54.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 19
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 68%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +4.7% | +1.1% | -9.7% | -5.5% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | +12.1% | -0.7% | +0.5% | -14.5% | -13.0% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | +28.3% | -0.1% | +6.1% | +1.1% | -1.0% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | +11.8% | +0.1% | -3.9% | -4.8% | +1.2% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +21.6% | +0.4% | +6.0% | +5.4% | -0.6% |
| May 8, 2025 | +19.5% | -0.3% | -2.6% | -2.3% | -5.4% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | +16.1% | +1.0% | +6.6% | +9.1% | +7.7% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | +26.4% | -1.5% | +0.8% | +9.4% | +2.0% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.78 | $1.70 | +4.7% | $1.95B |
| May 7, 2026 | $1.94 | $1.73 | +12.1% | $2.04B |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $2.13 | $1.66 | +28.3% | $2.17B |
| Nov 20, 2025 | $2.09 | $1.87 | +11.8% | $2.25B |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $2.03 | $1.67 | +21.6% | $1.98B |
| May 8, 2025 | $1.41 | $1.18 | +19.5% | $1.95B |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $1.73 | $1.49 | +16.1% | $1.97B |
| Nov 14, 2024 | $1.53 | $1.21 | +26.4% | $2.01B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 13.3× | 18.4× | 19th | Top 14% |
| P/E (forward) | 9.5× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.4× | — | — | Top 9% |
| EV / Sales | 1.27× | — | — | Bottom 49% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.82% | — | — | Top 7% |
| Earnings yield | 7.50% | — | — | Top 14% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 6.8× – 78.9× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -32.9%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -7.5%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -9.6%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -5.2%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -2.4%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -11.0%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -23.0%
- RSI (14)
- 31.9
- Relative volume
- 0.76×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 40.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 97th percentile · High for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.08
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.05
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -36.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -39.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2024 | Oct 2, 2026 | -39.9% | 459 days | Not yet recovered |
| May 14, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | -19.2% | 139 days | 31 days (Jan 14, 2022) |
| Jan 14, 2022 | Mar 25, 2022 | -17.9% | 48 days | 29 days (May 6, 2022) |
| Dec 2, 2022 | Oct 12, 2023 | -16.9% | 215 days | 77 days (Feb 2, 2024) |
| Nov 13, 2020 | Nov 23, 2020 | -12.1% | 6 days | 69 days (Mar 5, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $3.29B
- P/E (TTM)
- 13.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $5.44
- Revenue (TTM)
- $8.41B
- 52-week range
- $71.45 – $117.28
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.98B | $5.85B | $6.99B | $7.92B | $8.16B |
| Gross profit | $1.23B | $1.26B | $1.76B | $2.16B | $2.15B |
| Operating income | $423.9M | $384.3M | $695.6M | $835.4M | $851.9M |
| Net income | $166.7M | $756.6M | $301.3M | $366.7M | $335.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.55 | $12.09 | $4.82 | $5.64 | $5.51 |
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.01B | $1.97B | $1.95B | $1.98B | $2.25B | $2.17B | $2.04B | $1.95B |
| Net income | $81.6M | $113.3M | $62.6M | $108.8M | $51.0M | $96.8M | $81.8M | $63.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.28 | $1.78 | $1.03 | $1.79 | $0.88 | $1.71 | $1.56 | $1.29 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $588.2M | $384.2M | $750.3M | $931.7M | $998.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$192.5M | -$255.3M | -$303.0M | -$429.5M | -$510.2M |
| Free cash flow | $395.7M | $128.9M | $447.3M | $502.2M | $488.1M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$92.1M | -$443.0M | -$699.6M | -$300.7M | -$709.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $265.6M
- Total assets
- $12.85B
- Total liabilities
- $9.76B
- Total debt
- $7.63B
- Net debt
- $7.37B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $3.08B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 5,888,798
- Days to cover
- 6.18
- Change vs previous report
- -0.9%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Mar 11, 2022
- 191-for-125