Stocks · Technology · Software - Application
SPS Commerce, Inc. SPSC
$82.35 -2.20% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $2.96B
High qualityInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Oct 29, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 14 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +13.1%).
- The shares trade at 39.8× trailing earnings, lower than 86% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 45 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Technology sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 44%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 33%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 35%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 22%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 14%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 30%
- Gross marginTop 27%
- Operating marginTop 23%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 24%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 27%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 28%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 33%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 25%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 26%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 45%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 21%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 30%
- 6-month returnTop 32%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 32%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 47%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 39%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 9%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 20%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 5%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 29%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 21%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 23%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 28%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 13.8% | 9.8% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 12.1% | -5.0% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 68.2% | 69.8% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 14.6% | 15.8% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 20.2% | 25.7% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 9.8% | 13.8% | ↓ | Bottom 44% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -5.0% | 12.1% | ↓ | Bottom 33% |
| Gross margin | 69.8% | 68.2% | ↑ | Top 27% |
| Operating margin | 15.8% | 14.6% | ↑ | Top 23% |
| Net margin | 10.1% | 11.8% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 25.7% | 20.2% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 9.3% | — | Top 30% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 18.6% | — | Top 22% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 2.92×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -13.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 8.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -15.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -0.91×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 5.12%
- Shareholder yield
- 5.12%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -2.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 14
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +13.1%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.7%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $69.00
- Target vs current price
- -16.2%
- Analysts with a rating
- 23
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 43%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | +16.5% | -5.1% | +4.7% | +16.0% | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +7.8% | +1.7% | +1.3% | -3.0% | +19.0% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | +14.0% | -5.5% | -14.9% | -11.4% | -17.6% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | +14.1% | -1.2% | -22.8% | -21.7% | -12.5% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | +11.1% | -0.4% | -22.1% | -20.6% | -20.5% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | +19.0% | +4.9% | +8.3% | +8.7% | +3.8% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | +2.3% | -0.6% | -18.0% | -29.4% | -19.9% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | +10.8% | +0.6% | -10.9% | -5.2% | +2.3% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.27 | $1.09 | +16.5% | $197.8M |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $1.10 | $1.02 | +7.8% | $192.1M |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $1.14 | $1.00 | +14.0% | $192.7M |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $1.13 | $0.99 | +14.1% | $189.9M |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $1.00 | $0.90 | +11.1% | $187.4M |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $1.00 | $0.84 | +19.0% | $181.5M |
| Feb 10, 2025 | $0.89 | $0.87 | +2.3% | $170.9M |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.92 | $0.83 | +10.8% | $163.7M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 39.8× | 92.2× | 14th | Top 33% |
| P/E (forward) | 16.8× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.3× | — | — | Top 26% |
| EV / Sales | 3.62× | — | — | Top 45% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.70% | — | — | Top 25% |
| Earnings yield | 2.51% | — | — | Top 33% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 23.4× – 139.6× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -20.3%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -5.0%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -50.3%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 71
- Days above the 200-day average
- 45
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +11.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +4.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +20.0%
- RSI (14)
- 54.8
- Relative volume
- 0.87×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 46.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 79th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.00
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.31
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -27.1%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -76.8%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2024 | May 13, 2026 | -76.8% | 447 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 28, 2021 | May 18, 2022 | -43.6% | 139 days | 267 days (Jun 12, 2023) |
| Feb 9, 2024 | Apr 17, 2024 | -23.4% | 46 days | 72 days (Jul 31, 2024) |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Oct 27, 2023 | -20.8% | 72 days | 40 days (Dec 26, 2023) |
| Jan 7, 2021 | Jun 3, 2021 | -20.3% | 101 days | 50 days (Aug 13, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.96B
- P/E (TTM)
- 39.8
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.07
- Revenue (TTM)
- $772.5M
- 52-week range
- $49.04 – $114.87
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $385.3M | $450.9M | $536.9M | $637.8M | $751.5M |
| Gross profit | $253.6M | $297.8M | $354.8M | $427.1M | $519.9M |
| Operating income | $55.1M | $71.2M | $77.2M | $88.9M | $118.3M |
| Net income | $44.6M | $55.1M | $65.8M | $77.1M | $93.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.21 | $1.49 | $1.76 | $2.04 | $2.46 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $163.7M | $170.9M | $181.5M | $187.4M | $189.9M | $192.7M | $192.1M | $197.8M |
| Net income | $23.5M | $17.6M | $22.2M | $19.7M | $25.6M | $25.8M | $19.7M | $6.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.62 | $0.46 | $0.58 | $0.52 | $0.67 | $0.68 | $0.53 | $0.19 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $112.9M | $100.1M | $132.3M | $157.4M | $178.8M |
| Capital expenditure | -$19.6M | -$19.9M | -$19.8M | -$20.0M | -$26.5M |
| Free cash flow | $93.3M | $80.2M | $112.5M | $137.4M | $152.3M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$20.4M | -$43.2M | $18.0M | -$37.6M | -$110.4M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $173.2M
- Total assets
- $1.13B
- Total liabilities
- $186.9M
- Total debt
- $6.3M
- Net debt
- -$166.9M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $938.5M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 3,246,091
- Days to cover
- 5.36
- Change vs previous report
- -2.4%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Aug 23, 2019
- 2-for-1