Stocks · Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
The Timken Company TKR
$122.44 +2.90% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $8.51B
Strong trend
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 33.2× trailing earnings, higher than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 5 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +9.6%).
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 218 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth35Weak
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 40%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 30%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 41%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 32%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 41%
Quality60Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 45%
- Gross marginTop 49%
- Operating marginTop 32%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 31%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 48%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 39%
- Interest coverTop 41%
Value45Neutral
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 44%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 36%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 46%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 50%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 6%
Momentum88Strong
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 12%
- 6-month returnTop 24%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 12%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 29%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 27%
Revisions62Neutral
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 38%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 24%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 43%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 27%
Stability63Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 28%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 30%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 49%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 39%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 3.3% | 5.5% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -5.2% | -16.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 30.8% | 28.7% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 12.2% | 11.2% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 7.0% | 8.1% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 5.5% | 3.3% | ↑ | Bottom 40% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -16.1% | -5.2% | ↓ | Bottom 30% |
| Gross margin | 28.7% | 30.8% | ↓ | Top 49% |
| Operating margin | 11.2% | 12.2% | ↓ | Top 32% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | 6.9% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 8.1% | 7.0% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 6.6% | — | Top 45% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 0.6% | — | Bottom 32% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 2.05×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.6%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +0.7 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.59×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 5.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 1.16%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.62%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.79%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.3%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -1.1%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 5
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +9.6%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $142.86
- Target vs current price
- +16.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 24
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 63%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | +13.0% | -6.9% | -10.7% | -15.0% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +11.3% | +9.2% | +6.8% | +20.2% | +25.5% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | +4.6% | +3.0% | +13.8% | +9.8% | +15.3% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +9.6% | +2.6% | -1.2% | +5.2% | +21.8% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | +6.0% | -7.7% | -7.8% | -2.5% | -6.3% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | -2.1% | -1.6% | +1.5% | +6.6% | +25.1% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | +7.4% | +3.5% | +4.1% | -3.9% | -18.5% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | -10.9% | -12.9% | -8.2% | -6.9% | -7.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $1.83 | $1.62 | +13.0% | $1.26B |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.67 | $1.50 | +11.3% | $1.23B |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $1.14 | $1.09 | +4.6% | $1.11B |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $1.37 | $1.25 | +9.6% | $1.16B |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $1.42 | $1.34 | +6.0% | $1.17B |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $1.40 | $1.43 | -2.1% | $1.14B |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $1.16 | $1.08 | +7.4% | $1.07B |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $1.23 | $1.38 | -10.9% | $1.13B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 33.2× | 15.6× | 95th | Top 44% |
| P/E (forward) | 19.5× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.7× | — | — | Top 46% |
| EV / Sales | 2.14× | — | — | Bottom 50% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.53% | — | — | Top 36% |
| Earnings yield | 3.01% | — | — | Top 44% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 11.6× – 35.8× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +63.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -16.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +110.6%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 218
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -6.5%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +3.3%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -1.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +6.8%
- RSI (14)
- 56.3
- Relative volume
- 1.22×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 32.2%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 52th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.04
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.53
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -15.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -38.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2021 | Jun 23, 2022 | -43.3% | 284 days | 255 days (Jun 29, 2023) |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Apr 8, 2025 | -38.9% | 437 days | 197 days (Jan 21, 2026) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | -21.0% | 57 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jan 14, 2021 | Feb 5, 2021 | -15.0% | 15 days | 27 days (Mar 17, 2021) |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Mar 20, 2026 | -13.4% | 14 days | 28 days (Apr 30, 2026) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $8.51B
- P/E (TTM)
- 33.2
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $3.69
- Revenue (TTM)
- $4.76B
- Dividend yield
- 1.16%
- 52-week range
- $70.57 – $146.37
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.13B | $4.50B | $4.77B | $4.57B | $4.58B |
| Gross profit | $1.16B | $1.34B | $1.52B | $1.45B | $1.31B |
| Operating income | $513.1M | $606.9M | $657.1M | $611.1M | $565.9M |
| Net income | $369.1M | $407.4M | $394.1M | $352.7M | $288.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.79 | $5.48 | $5.47 | $4.99 | $4.11 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.13B | $1.07B | $1.14B | $1.17B | $1.16B | $1.11B | $1.23B | $1.26B |
| Net income | $81.8M | $71.2M | $78.3M | $78.5M | $69.3M | $62.3M | $98.2M | $28.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.16 | $1.01 | $1.11 | $1.12 | $0.99 | $0.89 | $1.40 | $0.41 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $387.3M | $463.8M | $545.2M | $475.7M | $554.3M |
| Capital expenditure | -$148.3M | -$178.4M | -$187.8M | -$170.0M | -$148.2M |
| Free cash flow | $239.0M | $285.4M | $357.4M | $305.7M | $406.1M |
| Dividends paid | -$92.2M | -$91.7M | -$94.0M | -$96.1M | -$98.3M |
| Net share buybacks | -$67.0M | -$203.1M | $33.9M | $191.8M | -$55.5M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $399.1M
- Total assets
- $6.83B
- Total liabilities
- $3.46B
- Total debt
- $2.08B
- Net debt
- $1.68B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $3.19B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | $0.36 | Aug 28, 2026 |
| May 19, 2026 | $0.36 | May 29, 2026 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $0.35 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | $0.35 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | $0.35 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| May 13, 2025 | $0.35 | May 23, 2025 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $0.34 | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | $0.34 | Nov 29, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 4,290,349
- Days to cover
- 4.82
- Change vs previous report
- +2.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jul 1, 2014
- 1,397-for-1,000
- Jun 2, 1997
- 2-for-1
- Sep 1, 1988
- 2-for-1